Russell 2k looks very good, even with rising YieldDaily
The TVC:RUT looks okay, slowly grinding higher.
Spreading the chart out, it's still forming the, usually bullish, Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern.
Had this on a daily & weekly but the chart we see here is for the monthly (see profile for more info on where to get more data)
it is easier to see the pattern on the Weekly chart. Interesting.
However, we see something interesting on a monthly.
Monthly it looks similar to 2008 to 2010
AMEX:IWM
TZA
$RUT FANTASTIC STRENGTH, $NDX is the opposite!WOW what a phenomenal day!
There was HUGE volume on the TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM & it closed near the highs of the day!!!
NASDAQ:NDX on the other hand had heavier than normal volume and closed near the lows of the day
Add to the misery, bearish engulfing was formed today. NASDAQ:QQQ
Did we just see the initiation of money rotation?
Next Week's IWM, 21 Day Pivot Standard Deviation RangeLooks like the medium term bias is to the downside for small caps, as we see the weekly pivot (red solid line) fall below the monthly pivot (dark solid line) with AMEX:IWM closing below both.
Both deviation boxes represent two standard deviations above and below the a moving monthly pivot. We may see demand in the lower deviation range if we fall to start off the week.
A rally to start of the week will likely be met with resistance from our pivot points and a fresh downward move from the 21 day moving average.
Investors that want to take advantage of this medium term bias could short volatility in the short term (June/July) for IWM using AMEX:TZA but bet bigger on long volatility in the longer term (September/January2025).
Take any short term gains to the upside and hold onto your short thesis heading into the second half of the year, into 2025.
The DXY and Yields are Still Set Up for a Bullish ReversalLast night, the DXY went below the PCZ of the Bullish Alt-Bat and bottomed out at the Demand Line of the channel it has been trading within, and at the same time, it formed a Bullish Butterfly with double PPO confirmation. Now it is back above the Moving Averages and on the rise. Meanwhile, the yields have seemingly bottomed out at the 200 SMA at the PCZ of a Bullish Shark and looks to be ready to make some new highs.
The QQQ has been getting pumped a lot because of money flowing into big tech, so I have opted not to focus so much on trading against the QQQ and will instead shift my focus against the IWM via the 3x Inverse ETF $TZA. TZA is at the 200 moving average, aligning with the PCZ of a Bullish Deep Crab with some PPO Confirmation, I think this will make new highs soon. if the QQQ goes back below 360 then I will cosnider jumping back on the Bearish QQQ trade.
Bearish BAMM on the 3x Bearish Return IWM Bearish ETFThe 3x Bearish Return ETF for the IWM is currently showing Hidden Bearish Divergence on the weekly at the 55-week EMA, and it looks like if this Hidden Bearish Divergence plays out we will see the ETF fall below the B point and begin to accelerate its Bearish Wave Structure which would complete between the 1.272 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions.
This would mean that the IWM (The Russel 2000) itself would be rising.
As a result of what I see here on the chart, I may consider buying puts on this ETF, Buying IWM Calls, or just overall getting more exposure to small caps and just taking this as an overall Macro Bullish Indicator.
TZA Long, IWM Short due to weakness in XLF & SPY- Very notable drop in the last 3 days for all sectors. Most important factor to remember is always following the trend and dont try to fight against it. Even though today there was a lot of opportunity in both direction it was quite a choppy day.
- I mentioned yesterday any pop bullish on premarket data will be a good short for all sectors and i will be getting in too.
- Took a decent 6100 shares position in TZA which is leverage 3x ETF for IWM short.
- SPY and QQQ now below 200 daily MA.
- Very oversold on multiple time frames would like to play a bounce Monday when we have all time frames oversold at a same time, ideally a gap down Monday for a bonuce play.
- All trends still favor the bears expect we are still in a weekly uptrend, SPY approaching that weekly support very soon.
(WARNNG) Extreme Bear Volume in $XLF, Shorting next hourly LH- QQQ double topped with Tuesday top, had a 15m bull flag during consolidation with no red flags until mid morning.
- XLF increasing bear volume with zero bounce and very notable big money exiting. Fear creeped into the market
- VIX up 20%
- QQQ went from lead bull to bear when all sectors starting to drop at the same time after XLFs huge drop. dragging SPY down too.
- lots of negative news and sentiment regarding banks and how much they dropped SI down over 80% in just two days.
- Bears now in total control.
- huge drop in XBI & IWM as well.
SMH might go from lead bull to lead bear tomorrow
looking to short the next hourly or 15m lower high pretty much almost on any bounce if we get a bullish reaction to data tomorrow during PM will be shorting that bounce.
IWM - Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF - OVERBOUGHTRSI has fallen back under 70 & ADX is rising. Selling could become a STRONG TREND as the dollar rebounds with rising yields. Expecting a $VIX spike to occur if $DXY continues upward. Staying HEDGED for the DEBT BUBBLE implosion with $UVIX $UVXY $HDGE $TZA
TZA - Small Cap Bear ETF - HEDGEDaily RSI bounced back just above 30 with a rising ADX indicator. Most everything seems to be at overbought conditions as Fed policy is still tightening. Yields up, Dollar up, speculative assets DOWN. Small caps don't stand a very good chance of profiting in a deflationary environment. Expecting more bankruptcies, layoffs, & defaults. Indexes could fall hard from these levels. Staying HEDGED for the DEBT BUBBLE implosion.
SPY Update: Bullish Trade Idea Still AliveDespite being tempted to exit this trade during the extended hours activity but i'm now seeing a bullish variables during the regular session such as a Bearish 3 Line Strike at the 88.6% retrace and it's coming off of oversold conditions on the RSI so im adding to my UVXY and TZA puts and shorts and staying long the SPY.
Confirmed Rectangle TopToday We can say a Rectangular Top pattern has been confirmed and small-cap will experience another 10-15% decline!
This is the lowest level since Jan 29th, 2021.
This could happen very fast in the next 2-6 weeks!
TZA (Small-cap 3x inverse ETF) volume doubled in volume in the past 3 months, and could go up to 37-42 levels!
You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
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TZA set to explode... 12% upside in this setupM2K futures are looking weaker than I have seen in almost 12 years. Crash is definitely on the table right now. TZA is a great instrument to capture a huge leveraged move with low risk. The entry in this scenario would be a buy at around $5.60 and to sell around $6.85 with a stop at $5.10. Ultra rare setup here with a huge gain potential in possibly a few hours... or minutes!
ABC retrace finished? Reloaded shortsWell, got stopped out yesterday, but reloaded heavy shorts again. Looking like we just finished ABC retrace. Lots of things going on here, but mainly looking at Green TL which is the major bull TL from 2009 lows that also supported lows in 2012, 2016, and 2018. A weekly close below that is very negative as it will also be a weekly close below 200 week MA.
If that happens, I'm expecting a new low sometime in the 1st week of May. Wide target range between 1800-2120. We'll see how this one goes. Will be in and out of trades along the way I suppose, but hoping to be scalping profits and reloading as we go.
SL will be 2700 area which is still well in profit on this trade. Will move it down as we go and or scalp and reload.