UA
LONG UA BIG PICLong UA! It was sold off hard the past 3 earnings and its pretty attractive at this price point. I personally own 500 shares @$31 for a long term hold :)
Usually does well during winters with exception of inventory management problems last year due to abnormally warm winter, see green circle! Predicting a blue circle this time instead!
MACD on weekly turning + RSI shifting up from Oversold with declining volume + Strong n steady uptrend support line, my personal TP $43 for now
UA (Under Armour INC) Long poHi everyone!
This is my first idea of trading on USA stock market.
The idea is for a Long position on UA (Under Amour Inc).
WHY?:
1) We have a big gap to close
2) This looks like a copy of chart from end of may 2016, We`re in second wave down to around 29.20, where I want to get in, with Stop Loss around 28.90, but It will depend on day low.
3) We`re oversold on RSI, and Its start go UP, near to support on RSI 37.26
4) MACD (4;9;3) signal line and price line cross my resistance line. Now resistance will become support, and lines will test it in few days.
5) MACD (12;26;9) signal line and price line going to cross my resistance line. As soon as It will happen, We`re about to open our LONG position.
Will write some more info on that idea later.
THE WEEK OF 10/16: WHAT I'M LOOKING ATWhile I grind away on various covered call positions (I only have one covered call with an October short call on; the rest are in November or December), I'm looking ahead to some decent earnings for premium selling.
Generally, I'm looking for underlyings whose implied volatility is above the 70th percentile for the past 52 weeks and that have background implied volatility of greater than 50% to play for a contraction in volatility immediately following the earnings announcement, with the go-to strategies being short strangles or iron condors.
Currently, there are four underlyings with good liquidity options that announce earnings next week and whose volatility is above the 60th percentile for the preceding 52 weeks: IBM, NFLX, UA, and EBAY. I'm screening for >60 implied volatility rank at this point, since volatility in these could still ramp up to my >70%, meaning that they might be worth keeping an eye on.
IBM -- Announces 10/17 after market close. The implied volatility rank is now in the 85th percentile. Unfortunately, the background implied volatility is far from being up to snuff at this point for me (28.3%).
NFLX -- Announces 10/17 after market close. Implied vol rank: 64th percentile; implied volatility 56.6%. It's very nearly "there". Hopefully implied volatility pops a little more right before earnings.
UA -- Announces 10/17 after market close. Rank: 62; implied vol 41.7%. Needs more.
EBAY -- Announces 10/19 after market close. Rank: 93; implied vol 41.6%. Needs more.
After I look at implied volatility percentile and the background implied volatility, I look at what I can get out of a setup. Generally, I'm shooting for a 1.00 credit for either a short strangle or iron condor, since I look to take these off at 50% max profit (i.e., a .50 ($50)/contract profit). Alternatively, I look at whether a short straddle or iron fly would make sense if the underlying is just too cheap to yield a decent enough credit. With short straddles/iron flies, I generally look to get 2.00 in credit at the outset, since I tend to manage those at 25% max.
$UA - Wave 5 initiation as we approach earnings on July 26, 2016Ever since UA had a 2/1 split early April, prices have been gradually dropping and it seems as though a a halt has initiated a reversal preventing us from touching ur Jan. 2016 lows of ~$31, and I believe that was the end of our Wave 4 ABC correction. Looking back to 2014-15 we see a healthy wave 3 which can be subdivided into 5 smaller waves. Wave 5 (in wave 3 marked green) is an impulse wave further divided into 5 waves. Interestingly enough the wave 5 extension is very similar in size to our original wave 1.
All in all I believe that wave 4 correction has come to an end and we are starting our last wave 5 which should be approaching the $53-$56 range. Earnings will be reported later on this month and think we should have a nice bullish trend if earnings are impressive.
A little bit about the company: Under Armour has recently shown signs of dominance in the sports apparel industry pushing Nike off its thrown. Signing professional superstar athletes (Curry, Harper, etc.) and collaborating with Universities (UCLA NCAA sponsorship) UA has tapped into a new crowd of customers. Endorsing Steph Curry alone UA's basketball shoe sales have increased by 350%. This company has a future and is growing fast and I see a nice bullish trend continuing for quite a while.
UA Longer Term Trading IdeaUA has been in a long term uptrend since the breakout from 2012. Notice the trendline starts after resistance becomes support and tests multiple times confirming the baseline. The long term trend was recently retested around $32. As price is continuing to drop this trendline is possibly going to be retested.
A good long setup idea is setting up in this area. Depending on the speed of the fall, $36.50 support area may be the area as that area was tested twice as resistance before it broke through.
However, as shown by the trendline retest, $36.50 was not strong enough to hold when the price dropped almost parabolic like. If this happens again, the trendline is going to catch up to price near $34. Below that, you will have previous trendline lows near $32 and then ultimately the multiple tests at $30 plus the psychological level make a hard stop at $29 very prudent.
Long Idea 1--Buy at 36.50 on a slow pullback, buy at 34 on an aggressive pullback, only buy when the shorter timeframe shows this area is holding. Hard stop at $29.
Long Idea 2--Sell 34 Puts equivelant to the shares you wish to buy looking out no more than 1 month. If price drops below 34 you are put the stock and essentially buying the stock but for a cheaper price than the 34 because you were paid option premium. Hard stop still to $29.
Note--With idea number 2--do not sell more puts that what you wish to buy. Each put is equivelant to 100 shares. If you want to buy 500 shares, sell 5 puts at the price you wish to buy on the pullback. If price closes at expiration below that price, you are filled and are long the stock. If price does not, you collected roughly 1-5% of the price of the stock for the month and you try again the following month. This allows you to make a very strong return over the year simply trying to get filled on a rising stock during pullbacks--but ONLY to the extent you can afford. Selling more options than you can afford to buy in stocks will destroy your account at some point.
Note 2--If price closes below $29 before option expiration--buy to close your puts and move on. The trade has failed, you do not want to be long at this point. If you want to be overly protective, you may also buy the 29 put to protect your downside at that point but you are severly crippling your profit potential of selling puts to buy the stock.
All trading is a risk tradeoff--simply decide what works best for you. Long term UA is going no where and if they pay a dividend as well (not sure if do) this is a great nest egg type stock as long as price doesn't get below 30 and shift sentiment from a long term uptrend to a failed uptrend. No matter what--keep a permanent hard stop under 30. This market is very top heavy--you must be protected.