UAL - United Airlines AnalysisNASDAQ:UAL
The idea is to go long, but wait that other companies in the same business will show a buy signal.
Check
IAG and AAL - They give different information than UAL.
The best option is to hold and invest in it only when those three company will be on the same page (buy or selling side).
UAL
3 Top Stock Picks That Could Yield 50% Return by Year End 3 of my top stock picks include:
American Airlines - #AAL - AAL
United Airlines - #UAL - UAL
Delta Airlines - #DAL - DAL
I believe these 3 stocks are well supported and could potentially yield a decent return by year end.
Always remember to Trade Safe - Trade Well
Cheers!
UAL - Shorting the failed breakout of the descending wedgePretty straight forward. United has been building this descending wedge and it has plenty of room left to consolidate down. It failed the breakout today with a gap up in the morning. Also a bearish divergence on the RSI.
Shorted after hours at 25.43 for the weekend
DAL is on Historical Key Level! Welcome to Profitlio Trading!
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DAL showing a historical key level and where price held very strong from COVID19 crashes. Expecting to be a good turning point at this level. Sketch up your own trade setup and make sure you meet with the required confirmations first before you make your move!
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Going Long in AIRLINES?! - 05/04/20 RECAPHi traders,
Being bullish in UAL the very next day the world got to know Warren Buffet's failed investment seems like a crazy idea. But being a technical trader, I saw an opportunity and it paid off!
My trade:
1) UAL - LONG @24.52, SL 24.22, after dropping for the third consecutive day and showing a beautiful Cup and Handle formation, this was a clear long play. +1.53%
*In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the trades' description.*
Total PnL for the day: +1.53%
Total PnL for the week: +1.53%
Good trades,
Tom | FINEIGHT
UNITED AIRLINES; Ready for Take Off or Have We Not Even Landed?✨ We provide charts every day ✨
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Good morning, this is your captain speaking 👨✈️, looks like United Airlines (UAL) may be in for turbulence depending on the reaction at support here. Today we are looking to see if UAL is going to retain its short term uptrend, giving us a smooth landing, or if we are going to be looking at a double bottom or lower.
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1. Fractal Trend is showing a downtrend (Red background color) for UAL on the hourly chart.
2. Breakaway Scalper is currently neutral (Grey bar color), so we have no trade.
3. With this strategy we enter long ONLY when Fractal Trend shows a Green background and Breakaway Scalper shows a Green bar color. We enter short on opposite conditions (Red on Red) and otherwise want to be in cash.
4. While there is still a question if airlines in general are bottoming or are going to see more downside (many airline charts look like this, as does the airline ETF JETS), for now we are still holding support as illustrated on the chart.
5. If supports holds, we will be looking for reactions at R1 and R2 resistance. After that we have the top of the current price structure at R3 and then otherwise bearish order blocks at R4 - R6 which were formed on the way down.
6. Support levels below include the bullish order blocks at S1 - S3.
7. It is likely the fate of the airlines is tied overall to the market's reaction to the state of COVID and the economy. Do we reopen and start getting back to normal? That is of course bullish for airlines. Do we try to come out of hiding only to see our shadow and then find ourselves with weeks more of lockdown? In that case there could be a chance airlines haven't even landed yet.
Potential reversal up the upside or downtrend continuation. What is LUV?
Southwest Airlines Co. is a major American airline headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and is the world's largest low-cost carrier
if your bullish on the airline sector, you can take long position here or around $30.41.
or short it at $31.
but if overall market goes bullish, we could see
1st target around 34.57
2nd target 38
3rd target 46
JETS propelled past channelJETS is breaking a bear triangle formation channel, with very high volume as seen in chart.
In the chart you can see the next resistance drawn. Which are the 200 and 50 simple moving average.
OBV has been trending higher, making higher lows, and is following the channel drawn.
JETS is an ETF holding airline stocks, its portfolio top 4 holdings and % weight are:
LUV (13.66%) - Southwest
AAL (12.49%) - American
DAL (11.00%) - Delta
UAL (10.52%) - United
Total= 47.47%
United Airlines Zones
Colors
Red = Sell
Green = Buy
Gray = Do nothing
Orange = Small short till blue
Blue Institutional buying = already happened at least once
Pink = Probably Bankruptcy or something at least in 2020 prices that low I would be worried lol
IF the earnings report gets crushed it will go back down probably to the blue zone so keep an eye out big time. These gray area lines are extremely powerful if you look back.
One interesting thing is I am finding cash flow of Quarterly Operating Expenses of drastic change immediately the next month or two lead to downtrends/or reversals of a decent amount. Need to do some algorithms in Tableau to test out my theory. It makes sense, if the company has less operating cash flow how can they run a profitable business for the next earnings report?
$AAL EPS Projection = -$2.47 / Falling WedgeI will be looking for $AAL to follow this falling wedge downwards and likely lag till earnings. Earnings may cause more downside.
Wall Street Journal EPS Projection: -$1.83
More realistic EPS: -$2.47
I believe revenue projections are heavily understated as shown by Ford.
$UAL has quarterly revenues under 10 billion and predicted a revenue loss in march alone at 1.5 billion . $AAL I am betting will have lost more revenue than 1.5 billion in March.
If we take into account $UAL projecting losses of 1.5billion in March when their revenue is under 10 billion a quarter it is safe to say that $AAL would lose 1.5 billion in revenue as well, which is generous because they could have lost more.
Projected Revenues/Expenses/Net Income/EPS
Operating Expense for Q1: 10.157 billion
Operating Expenses for January: 3.386 billion
Operating Expenses for February: 3.386 billion
Operating Expenses for March: 3.386 billion
Operating Revenue for Q1: 10.757 billion
Operating Revenue for January: 3.585 billion
Operating Revenue for February: 3.585 billion
Operating Revenue for March if it were a normal month, based on trends: 3.585 billion
Non operating expenses: 158 million
Net income in January: 200 million
Net income in February: 200 million (generous)
Expected losses in revenue for March: 1.5 billion
Expected Operating revenue for March: 2.085 billion.
Net income in March: -1.3billion
200 mill + 200 mill -1.3billion - 158 million = -1.058 billion before taxes
No clue how this loss would be taxed, so let's just leave that alone, but this means their real net income after tax will be worse than -1.058 billion
-1.058 billion / 428.2million weighted outstanding shares = -$2.47 EPS or worse.
This is important because a normal falling wedge like this would break towards the upside, however if earnings are truly this bad I believe there may be more downside.
Different airlines, different leverges."The Senate's bailout package, which deals with the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus, will give airlines $25 billion in direct grants as long as they agree not to place any employees on involuntary furloughs or discontinue service at any airports they now serve until at least the end of September. Another $25 billion is available for loan guarantees."-- CNN
Four popular American Aviation industry leaders are under fire sale.. but which will hold till the end and outperform in your portfolio?
I made a fundamental comparison of these companies. mainly focusing on debt/bankruptcy risk.
Airlines Investment PlanAirlines are currently taking a beating and Throughput is decreasing drastically each day. At the beginning of March throughput via TSA was recorded at 2,280,522. On March 31st, throughput was recorded at 146,348.
68 TSA screening agents have tested positive for COVID-19 and Airlines will continue to suffer while throughput is low.
This makes for a great time to buy discounted shares in $UAL and $DEL
Plan:
Accumulate shares in Delta Airlines as well as United Airlines once a week or every $2 down for the time period that United Airlines and Delta are in their respective buy areas.
United Airlines and Delta will recover! The government will also likely bail them out!
Ask yourself this. 2 years from now what do you see the Airline Industry looking like? Are you willing to let your investment sit for 2 years?
If the bottom ends up being $5, great you likely were able to accumulate at $22.50, $20, $18, $16, $14, $12, $10, $8, $6 and more.
If the bottom ends up being $15, great you likely were able to accumulate at $22.50, $20, $18, $16 and more.
If the bottom is $23 you don't get a single buy-in, great you risked nothing. Do not purchase shares because you feel that you missed out on your target prices. Stick with your targets.
My goal is to get 5-20 buys of Delta/United in the buy area. If your unit size is $1000 each that is $5000-$20000 invested.
The goal is to hold these shares to a minimum of $45 each before I start exiting. I do not plan on exiting all at once.
BA heading lower??As the market continues to sell off and airlines take a hit due to travel restrictions, BA is looking good to hit yearly support around $213. This is a longshot but after selling off $20 on Friday and continued virus confirmations over the weekend, this is looking better and better.