UAL
AL Testing Final Support Level Above 200 MATrade Background:
Price has been in a downward trend since the start of this year. This is due to the market pricing in less demand in flying due to the corona virus. For this reason price has fallen to key support just above 200 MA. Look for a swing to the topside of the trend as market sentiment recovers. Cut loss if price consolidates below 200 MA.
Trade Idea:
Entry: 42.50 to 44.00
Stop loss: 42.00
UALEarnings to be released later today. Expecting some volatility in price today moving into towards the last hour of the day. After Hours market will aid in determining what the outlook for united will be. With weakening indicators there is potential for continuing of the consolidation in the sideways trend,.
"Joe's earning season preview" EP02 : Let's Rock'n roll!The earning season already take places!
Let's check out the major names that will have their earning report this week with me yo!
Mon: C
Tue: GS, JPM, JNJ,WFC,UAL, IBKR
Wed: ABT, BAC, NFLX
Thur: MSFT, MS, UNH
and I got only 20 minutes so I didn't record down Friday names like AXP, BLK, and SLB!
Let's see how they go this week yo!
Airlines price targets - non-MAX operators BULL** Credit Suisse says non-MAX operators such as Delta Air Lines, Spirit Airlines, JetBlue Airways and Alaska Air Group to benefit most from reduced supply levels in the form of higher load factors and fares
** LUV and AAL combined have the highest exposure to MAX fleet in U.S.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Price targets / analysts:
CS downgrades American Airlines Group Inc to "underperform" form "neutral", cuts PT to $30 from $32, citing extended grounding's of MAX jets and ongoing mechanics labor dispute
Cuts PT for Southwest Airlines Co to $51 from $53, while also lowering 2019 EPS estimate to $4.07 from $4.45 due to the airline's inability to capitalize on market demand
Upgrades JBLU to "neutral" from "underperform", raises PT to $19 from $16 due to strong seasonal leisure demand and continued execution of cost and revenue initiatives
Raises PT for United Airlines Holdings Inc to $113 from $111 despite its smaller MAX exposure compared to LUV and AAL
Clear pattern for UAL (United Continental) - Short or buy putsWe have one of the most prominent channeling patterns here in UAL. We also have global tensions in the Persian gulf leading to concerns about oil prices going higher. Taken altogether, now is a great time to buy some near the money put options for UAL. Perhaps the July 26 or August 2 87 strike puts.
United Continental Holdings Inc (UAL) - Head and Shoulders SHORTAirline stocks have been poor performers, despite the short term pullback in crude oil recently experienced.
UAL's peers seem to be in an downtrend and with the formation of the head and shoulders formation, any break of the neckline would indicate a short.
Additionally on the chart above we have the MACD turning negative , RSI falling and a daily squeeze pushing to the downside.
Previously similar price action has played out with price breaking from $86.00 and finding support at $78.00
UAL Approaching Support, Potential Bounce!UAL is approaching our first support at 78.91 (horizontal overlap support, 100% fibonacci retracement, 50% fibonacci retracemenet) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 88.11 (50% fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also approaching support where we might see a corresponding bounce in price.
THE WEEK AHEAD: NFLX, UAL, IBM, RSX, XLFEarnings is upon us ... .
NFLX announces earnings on Monday after market close.
The April 27th 285/347.5 short strangle is paying 11.05 at the mid (yikes!), with a 70% probability of profit; the 68% probability of profit April 27th 272.5/277.5/355/360 is paying 3.36 (67% of the width of the spread).
UAL announces Tuesday after market close.
The April 27th, 71% probability of profit 62/71.5 short strangle is paying 1.34, with the 67%-er April 27th 58.5/61.5/71.5/74.5 paying .65, although bid/ask on the long aspects of that setup are wide, so you will want to recheck that during regular market hours to see if you do better, with a >75% of the width of the wings being the ideal.
IBM announces on Tuesday after market close. Its background implied volatility metrics aren't ideal at 29%, but that figure may ramp up slightly running into the announcement.
Currently, the April 27th 148/165 is paying 2.09 (74% probability of profit), with the April 27th 143/148/165/170 paying 1.23 (70% probability of profit).
On the exchange-traded-fund front, not much excites me here for new trades; I'm already basically in four out of five of the top background implied volatility symbols (OIH (34); XOP (34); EWZ (31), GDXJ (20), and FXI (25)), and those have all dropped below that 35% background metric I like for entering those trades, although XOP and OIH are probably "close enough."
I've also been watching RSX, the Russia exchange traded fund, to potentially take some kind of a directional shot at fading this dip, whether it be via short puts or one of my other "funky" setups (See Post Below). The other one I'm watching for a longer-dated directional bullish shot is XLF, with some single names that announced last week taking it a bit in the groin for various reasons. Given the price of the underlying, it's workable for smaller accounts, although it hasn't historically been a great straight-up premium selling play with its weak sauce implied volatility and doesn't pay much divvy (.43 annualized; 1.57% yield) if you routinely eye things from that perspective.
October 18 Earnings: United Airlines-Hurricanes, Expenses & FuelUnited Airlines has its second largest hub in Houston, Texas where 7,400 flights were canceled over the course of the Hurricane.
The company expects PRASM to decrease 3.5% to 4% due to impact from the Hurricane.
Slightly higher fuel prices should impact YoY comparisons even if an overall edge is still present.
I believe the company's higher expenses, catastrophe PRASM loss and high YoY comparison will hurt the quarter.
I'm starting United Airlines with a $58 PT for the post earnings move.
Close of the positiontriangle broken, probably a reverse of the position, return approximately = 10%, not bad
UAL symmetrical triangle ,symmetrical triangle broken with decisive volume, sell order 73.5, stop loss 76, take profit: 62 , We can also notice a kind of break away gap which might suggest a strong change into technical position
$ual head and shouldershead and shoulders reversal pattern back down to range
measured move projected to $68 area
mid time frame showing descending triangle and selling pressure
Iron Condor $UAL (10 Days to Exp.)Hey Traders,
I'm mostly testing out neutral strategies with small positions to add to a separate portfolio dedicated to market neutral strategies.
The position is as follows.
Option Strategy: Iron Condor
Position Expiration: 21 APR 17 (Red Vertical Line / 10 Days to Exp -1.05% .)
Total Legs: 4
Total Contracts held: 16
Position Breakeven Points: $63.74 / $71.26
Upper Leg:
- Short (4) $71 Strike Calls
- Long (4) $71.5 Strike Calls
Lower Leg:
- Short (4) $64 Strike Puts
- Long (4) $63.5 Strike Puts
Max Loss: $124.00
Max Win: $74.00
ROI: 59.67%
Trade Management: Holding to expiration for premium / max loss. Reason for such management is the exceptional return on capital invested along with the fact that the expiration crosses over earnings for which I don't expect a wild move. In the small case there is a wild move then loss is mitigated and capped at a set rate that I'm willing to accept.
$UAL gap fill then downThrowing a passenger off a plane, there's a 2.5% gap fill to be had but the trend is down anyway.
United Airlines - Coincidence or the magic of Fibonacci?Hey guys, I'm sure many of you heard about the United Airlines incident which is all over the media.
I had some time to spare today and I decided to check out the charts of the company.
This is my observation
Pattern Identification
Bearish shark completes at $75.
If one were to trade UAL based purely on harmonic patterns.
EP: $75
SL: $83
TP1: $57
TP2: $41.65
The value zone to buy low for UAL will either be at $57 or $41, depending on whether there is a nice bounce off the RSI OS zone.
This makes me really question the effectiveness of Fibonacci numbers, are these numbers really that magical or could it be just a coincidence?
UAL: when customers are treated badlyJust pure technical.
Heavy selling on the opening. Be careful of a bounce for intraday players.
Immediate resistance will be around $70 from the previous support-turn-resistance level