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UCO

Apr 6 - A Short Look Ahead for Oil/UCOPrice is ranging right now within the green box. Support looks like it should hold. There may be larger powers at be that do not want crude to fall back below $25. Decent bounce off $2.50 support. I think it's safe to assume it'll hold for now. $2.78 resistance needs to break in order to continue trend upwards. Ultimately depends on the outcome of the OPEC meeting on the 9th. I believe they'll come up with a solution. It's either they do, or most of the economies around the world go into (deeper) failure.
AMEX:UCOLong
by OptiPulse
4
Oil Price Prediction for next weekThe measured move of the head and shoulders pattern goes to $15. I expect the recent low of $20 to be retested. If that support breaks, then $15 is the next support. Oil is facing a demand issue more than anything. 100 million bpd global production and the demand has been cut by estimates around 30%. Which makes sense since about a third of the world is under lockdown. So 30M bpd minus the 10-15M bpd cuts still leaves us with an excess of 15-20M bpd. This excess will have to be stored until capacity is reached, sold at dirt cheap prices, and burned if necessary. The recent pump was shorts covering and longs speculating on the oil deal Trump tweeted was going to happen on Monday. It has now been postponed to Thursday the 9th. The price stopped perfectly at $29 resistance. I think price will be rejected and go down. Negative sentiment was thrown into the mix recently due to SA and Russia accusing eachother of causing the price crash. Trump calling OPEC an illegal cartel earlier today certainly doesn't help. All my opinion. Short-biased.
FX:USOILShort
by OptiPulse
3
Fundamental QuagmireIt appears the underlying fundamentals have hit equilibrium. The supply/demand imbalance continues to get worse as more countries post econ data supporting slowing trade. My favorite number so far this week is from Korea. The 11th largest economy in the world reported a 10% decline in exports from the previous year. Here in the US we are expecting inventories to pick up (possibly posting net gains for the first time in weeks) as production gets back to peak capacity after tropical storm Barry disruptions last week. Despite the increasingly bad news for crude bulls, geo-political tensions continue to escalate in the gulf as Iran seized a UK affiliated tanker and its crew. The UK is said to be looking at sanctions against Iran but I doubt sanctions would be enough to see prices rise. If we get another tank seizure or drone incident that could change. I'm still bearish long term and net bearish in the short term but I think this could be a "choppy" week for Oil as the bull and bears fundamental narratives vie for control of price action. Longs should be wary of bearish API and EIA numbers this week and Shorts will want to stay up to date on developments in the gulf. Agree? Disagree? Let me know what you are thinking!
NYMEX:CL1!
by CheersOrTears
Longs Beware!Prices have gone up since June on geo political tensions between Iran and US, OPEC curbing production, and Just this week worries about tropical storm barry (possibly hurricane barry) making landfall in Louisiana. To some it looks as if we hit the bottom and are going to make a new high for the year. Before you go long, let me offer some contrarian points to give you some alternative context. 1.) Global slowdown of growth and trade: Less capital production and trade mean less oil consumption. Despite OPEC's commitment to curb production it might not be very effective if we continue to see trade dominate headlines in negative ways. 2.) Geo-Politics: Yes its true we've seen some price surges on tensions in the Straight of Hormuz with Iran. However the bigger picture seems to be in the opposite direction. If you look at when Trump reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil exports back in Nov 4, 2018 the price has dropped and stayed below $75. Since Trump scuttled the Iranian nuclear deal, suppressing prices on Iran's top export (Oil) has been a key priority. Trump has been encouraging oil production in the US (now the worlds leading oil producer) to appease voters for re-election and in hopes it will force Iran to renegotiate a deal under his terms. Look for a continuation of this sympathetic ear to drilling, pipeline access, and campaign promises to keep prices lower to "ensure national security via energy independence". If you still prefer goin long, Iranian escalations provide excellent long scalps. As long as Trump doesn't start a war with Iran, don't expect a real reversal on geo-political headlines. 3.)Hurricane whiff: There's no doubt tropical storm Barry (possibly hurricane) will cause damage to Louisiana. However, most of the offshore rigs and port refineries have been built to withstand hurricanes lower than category 3 without much issue. Flooding may delay the refineries from getting back online or regaining full capacity, but they won't cause long lasting infrastructure damage. This might still sound bad but of the 5 million barrels that are exported in the gulf only about 700,000 of them come from Louisiana. (majority is from Texas) In spite of the bad weather the majority of refineries in Louisiana are expected to continue operations at some capacity over the coming days. I will say its only the first hurricane/storm of the season and its kicking off early. With climate change increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather, the possibility of a big storm wreaking real havoc on the oil market will hold merit till November. Keep your eyes peeled on these weather updates for long scalp opportunities. Agree? Disagree? Let me know what you are thinking! Wish everybody a safe and happy weekend.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CheersOrTears
5
WTI positive signsWTI is coming out of the hole. Soft target of prices around 68.58 - 70 Anticipating the ETF (UCO) should see highs around 28 in the next two months. WTI has closed above the 21 for the first time in 4 months with bear sign. On the daily, it has been consolidation between 60.71 and 58.15 Friday didn't close above, however it is positioned for such in the coming month. Last daily signal showed a desire for 62.736 Strength exists for this break out into this trading zone. Expecting around 66.35 in April which is the upper boundary of its trading range.
FX:USOILLong
by priceprophet
Long Oil and it might seem crazy but here's whyThe big picture shows continued bullish momentum, despite forming a clear H&S over last few sessions. The lynch pin in this whole situation was the inability to break MY neckline. Although crude does seem to be exhausted I think it had to take the beating today in order to make a run and have a chance at a breakout above 67. I would personally recommend a fairly tight stop in case things unravel in the blink of an eye, which crude can, but I think the bullish momentum will resume. I strongly believe the bears took advantage of the break the bulls needed to catch there breath, but the batteries have been recharged. I have a 2/5 position and will save some powder for a false break (bear trap) and reload with a lower avg share price. Ill make the call of 70-73 over next few quarters. Peak production season and driving season is here upon us. Dynamics are changing and have changed drastically now that USA has taken on a very different role as a supplier. Crude has one more leg up in my opinion, but it is still anyone's game. Best of luck and follow me for updates for trades. Sidenote: my strategy is simple, focus on a few stocks that show enough price action to warrant the time invested in doing the analysis, and stay on top of them. Usually its only 2-3 stocks/etfs. I don't kill it every trade and like any good trader I make bad calls and lose, but overall I do make money. I welcome contrarian views, as a part of my strategy I try to exhaust every angle to disprove my hypothesis or consensus, when I finally cant I make my move. Sometimes I miss the window and have to sit on the sideline to let the swing play out, but a good trader knows that sometimes sitting cash is the most prudent move. GLTA
TVC:USOILLong
by therancher
SCO Turning the corner once again.Have a sizeable position in SCO, currently down 1.23% with an an average of $35.09 still holding an additional 15% of funds in case this decides to move in the opposite direction My chart is indicating. I am currently seeing wti being ineffective at breaking the 52 range and imo in order for a retest of 55 and move to 60 there needs to be a retrace to 47-48. Currently do not have a stop but mentally it is low 33's. May possibly hedge with remaing funds in uco as well, but want to see clear movement established.
AMEX:SCOShort
by therancher