UGAZ
NAT GAS, UGAZUGAZ looks to be breaking out this morning. It looks like a BULL SHARK pattern just completed. You can now expect a 50% Fibo retrace higher to about $38.68. BOIL is another way to play it. I'm not taking this trade, but it should work out.
I'm In! Nat Gas $UNG. See The Trade HereWhat an epic fall on natural gas lately. The commodity tracking ETF $UNG has collapsed from $9.65 to its current $7.00 in the last month. This is a whopping drop of 27%. I love collapses like this because it means there will be a big bounce. If an investor or trader can analyze the commodity chart correctly, there is huge money to be made. I did it. After analyzing the chart, natural gas is a buy here. I am in fact buying $UGAZ, a 3X Long Natural Gas ETF. This is riskier but gives you more payout on a hard bounce. Note the stock chart below to see the awesome support level being hit.
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UGAZ Got stopped at 40 yesterday.
Following NGAS movements tomorrow.. EIA NGAS report coming out... if we are bull, I re-enter regardless the price.
Natural Gas Pullback then LongAfter a mega run, Natural Gas needs to take a break and will be pulling back before beginning a new run upwards, likely toward the $6 range... it might not go that far, but it's going to have a lot of power behind it once it reverses. The daily time frame has broken the uptrend in COG and CMF, so the uptrend should end. I believe that Natural Gas will be one of the top performers in commodities over the next few years and I think that in a few weeks we will have an opportunity to get a great entry. Check out my last natural gas idea from two months ago. It was when I was first implementing my trading strategy and I really liked the Natural Gas chart, but it threw me a curve and I bailed... it has been frustrating to watch it go up like it has, but I've tried to learn from it.
Closing the overgap likely to create resistance $UGAZ We seeing bullish rotation of the "point of control." Be aware of the overhead "gap" that remains as it will be an opportunity for trapped longs to exit trades with minimal losses.
We will likely see longs who accumulated through Mar/Apr/May take some profits. These actions are likely to create some near term resistance. This may also result in prices dropping to confirm support and build additional market structure around $8 base before attempting higher price discovery.
Good Luck!
bulls attempting to absob supply $UGAZ $DGAZ $NG_FBulls are attempting absorb the supply evidence by the higher lows present. The theme remains that demand exceeds supply.
Given that prices closed on support I believe a LONG entry is reasonable with a "tight stop" as shorts are buying into resistance.
I believe we are seeing strong hands maintain their positions while new entries respect that they are chasing while a few shorts sneak in.
I still don't feel rushed to enter carelessly into the "widow maker."
My re-entries are noted below.
Good Luck!
Theme remains bullish but are longs buying risk here The theme remains bullish for "natty" as we rally off of support after identifying bullish absorption. We can see 3 months of ACCUMLATION here so it difficult to estimate an upside target but we can identify some anticipated levels of resistance at $8.00, $8.30 & $8.80 as well as "gaps" created during the "markdown."
We saw a decrease in cumulative selling following buy our first increase in buying demand since March 2016. Again this looks bullish.
Despite this great "rally" the ease at which prices continue to trade higher is contracting while volume remains pretty constant so I speculate we are seeing some profit taking here. We will like return to $7.00 and shake out weak bulls while assessing how much supply remains available to control before we sustain any more gains.
The volume profile (purple area on the right) defines "value" and is showing that prices are entering a "low volume area." This could allow prices to test the $8.00 level then we can appreciate that prices are trading above "value" and likely encounter shorts and long liquidation. This process of test and retest will continue allowing rotation of the "point of control high" allowing balance to be maintained among buyer and sellers.
MY OPINION: New longs are chasing and entering a trade exposed to downside risk. I would wait for an entry confirming support.
Good Luck!