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UGAZ

NG: Natural Gas retracing into Fib levels, looking for supportNatural Gas NG July futures contract gapped up to $1.93, but quickly retraced to $1.915 level, which is 50% Fib level of its recent run. Prices are going lower into Thursday EIA report, as SP Global Platt reported decline in demand. Fib levels that may serve as support: $1.195 - 0.5; $1.900 - 0.382; $1.881 - 0.236; $1.85 - 0. Currently stabilizing at $1.90. Both MACD and RSI charts are pointing toward lower prices. Investors seem to be sensitive to low demand. We have a gap underneath at $1.76 level and major support at $1.70. Deep retracement into those levels is unlikely at this time.
NYMEX:NGN2020Short
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NG: Natural Gas futures gapped up switching to July contractNG: Natural Gas futures NG switched to July contract on May 26 at 18 p.m. gapping up to $1.93. Based on 4 Hr chart, resistance of $2.0 has not been reached yet indicating potential to go higher. MACD crossed pointing toward higher prices as well. RSI is at 60, which has been the level that capped the most recent rally at $2.0 (May 18 -22). Chande momentum is forming a "megaphone" pattern indicating some potential to go higher in the near-term. UGAZ: Traded flat at $17.30 during NG gap up to $1.93. If $1.93 NG price is sustained overnight, expecting a gap up on the open for UGAZ, possibly up to $19-20 level.
NYMEX:NGN2020
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$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG needs to break through $1.8 to go higherNatural Gas NG has moved higher in Tuesday trading session. Short-term resistance is seen at $1.8, support at $1.76. UGAZ trading between $15.70 and $17.70, with $16.65 being important level to stay above. NG needs to break through $1.8 to challenge its next resistance level at $2.0. With fundamentals turning bullish, it is a possible target. $UGAZ: next upside targets remain $20 and $23 levels, even if a pull back. Technicals: currently overbought on 30 min, 1 Hr time frames. 4 Hr chart is also near recent resistance levels, but may consolidate there in the near-term.
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$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG Potential for Upside Within ConsolidationNatural Gas June futures contract continues consolidating within a narrow range: $1.68 - $1.76. A potential for a move higher is seen in the near-term. UGAZ: Based on 1 Hr chart pattern and Chande Momentum indicator, an upside move can be expected within May 26 - 27 timeframe; $20 is seen as first upside target, $22-23 level as resistance, while $15.30 is seen as support. A break below could lead to $14 handle. Multiple consecutive green bars observed between May 22 and May 26 on UGAZ chart, are indicative of potential bottoming out. On Balance Volume (OBV) kept moving lower for both UGAZ and NG throughout May, approaching a potential bottom, with RSI momentum turning higher on 4 Hr chart. This could be a technical sign of reversal. However, NG trading range is narrow with main support at $1.60 and main resistance at $2.0. This trading range may continue in the near-term. June contract settles on May 27th, with last position on May 28th. Higher priced July contract continues after that through June 26th (its settlement). Demand is picking up, although gradually, and still under oversupplied conditions. Based on fundamentals, the overall direction of NG futures is expected to go higher from here, with consolidation to continue into early June. NG forward curve as well as seasonal demand are both pointing toward higher prices. A choppy pattern may continue until we get a forecast for a heat wave to kick off high cooling demand season.
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$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG Bottoming Pattern; Unfilled Gap. Potential bottoming patterns are seen on multiple time frames of natural gas contracts. June Natural Gas contract and Chande Momentum charts show higher lows. NG: However, NG June contract chart is pointing lower due to fundamental factors - economic shutdown and overall reduced demand. If prices hold support at $1.70 on Friday into closing, that would be an encouraging sign for the next week. Otherwise, a correction is possible. From technical standpoint, there is an unfilled gap from Sunday May 17th, up from $1.63 to $1.70 on the open. This gap maybe getting filled in the near-term. UGAZ: Corresponding gap up from May 17th has been filled. However, if NG prices are going lower, possibly toward $1.62-$1.60 support, UGAZ may fall temporarily into $12-$14 range. Otherwise, $15-$16 seems to serve as near-term support.
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$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG is Waiting for June HeatNatural gas futures contracts NG finished the day lower after EIA inventory report showed a less than expected build of 81 bcf vs 98 bcf predicted. Regardless of a substantially lower build, NG prices dropped 3.3% on Thursday. Short-term momentum turned negative, while medium term momentum is neutral pointing toward consolidation and possibly lower prices. The chart is slightly below 50% retracement of its recent move up, between $1.60 and $1.89. It is the middle of the range. A move in either direction is possible from here. Near-term resistance is seen at $1.75, level of prior support. Major support levels remain $1.70 and $1.60. UGAZ is trading within a range, between $15 and $16, as long as NG holds support at $1.70. Lower prices are possible; more consolidation seems likely before we go higher. The weather is expected to stay within a comfortable range between 60 and 80 degrees, with some heat up to 90 degrees in the Southwest. However, May is considered a shoulder month, when little additional demand is generated at these temperatures. The economy is reopening slowly, with demand growth expected to improve in June, when we switch to trading July contract.
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$UGAZ: Natural Gas NG is Looking for DirectionNatural Gas July futures NG gapped up on the open from $1.63 to $1.75, but then dropped to $1.71. 2 Hr MACD chart crossed forming some sort of consolidation zone. NG is trading higher July contracts. The fundamentals remain bearish: oversupplied condition vs. low demand. For the next two weeks, the weather is not expected to be hot enough to generate substantial demand. Although, the economy is re-opening, we may remain in oversupplied territory at least until June. The US natural gas rig count fell only by 1 (EIA), meaning production is still high. UGAZ: A divergence between price and momentum has been observed on the 2 Hr chart, pointing toward near-term higher prices, or consolidation. RSI is in oversold territory. A near-term resistance for UGAZ is seen at $19-$21 level. NG showed nearest resistance at $1.75. If we can break through this level, then the price can go higher toward $1.8-$2.0. That may bring UGAZ to $25-$27 level, if natural gas prices rebound sharply during this week. Otherwise, lower levels should be expected. If NG stays low for the next 2-3 weeks, UGAZ may drift down into $8-$12 range. The pattern emerging on NG 4 hr chart is reminiscent of the consolidation period between 3/16 and 3/30. New lows are still possible before we go higher. As we are approaching a high cooling demand summer period and re-opening of the economy, natural gas demand is expected to rise, although, gradually. Without sharp rise in demand, or sharp decline in supply, NG prices will remain capped.
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UGAZ: Bounced, But Still Forming a BottomNG: Natural Gas June futures rallied on Thursday into EIA report, which showed in-line storage build of $103 bcf. Natural gas stocks were 799 bcf higher than this time last year. The fundamentals remain on the bearish side with low consumption and warming weather. However, the economy is reopening, which is a bullish factor. NG chart dipped after reaching nearest resistance at $1.7 level, still within existing downward trend. Short-term support was found at $1.66. The chart appears to be forming a bottom, bouncing off oversold condition observed earlier on 4 Hr chart. Short-term momentum is positive, medium-term momentum is negative pointing toward consolidation, or lower prices. Support is seen at $1.6, resistance at $1.85. UGAZ: Based on Daily charts MACD, Chande Momentum, and CCI, a definitive bottom has not been formed yet. No divergences between momentum and price, similar to the pattern observed in late March, have been observed at this time. However, 4 Hr RSI chart (not listed here) showed a bottoming pattern at $1.6 NG level. For UGAZ, a level around $16 may hold as support, as long as NG price stays above $1.65 level. Otherwise, $15 handle may correspond to $1.6 level on NG chart.
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UGAZ: Still Looking for a Bottom - UpdateNatural gas futures contracts NG has drifted lower on Wednesday reaching $1.6 with corresponding UGAZ price at $15.27. The NG chart moved a little higher from there trying to establish a bottom. Should we not hold $1.6 level, the next possible level of support is $1.5. In that case, UGAZ may go lower toward $13 handle. Near-term resistance is seen at $1.8 and $1.87. Short term momentum is negative. The fundamentals are still bearish ahead of EIA report, as total consumption per day is expected to decline by 3.9% from 2019 average. Thursday report - 103 bcf build is expected.
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UGAZ: Looking for a Bottom? Natural gas futures contracts moved lower this week on low demand due to ongoing COVID lockdowns and warming weather. Support seen earlier at $1.72, has been broken. Next possible levels of support are $1.6 and $1.5. Another triple digit injection of around 104 bcf is expected on Thursday (EIA report). Supply-Demand deficit is expected to narrow: April -6.64 bcf/d; May -0.3 bcf/d; June - 1.99 bcf/d. Consumption growth is projected to keep slowing down: April +7.7%; May +0.3%; Jun +0.05% YoY (BlueGold Research). Supply is still stronger than demand in the near-term, unless companies will start filing bankruptcies. MACD crossover for UGAZ on 2 Hr chart is pointing toward lower prices. If NG prices are to drop to $1.5, a bottoming pattern for UGAZ may form this week at around $17 -$15 levels. NG futures are oversold on 4 Hr chart, but may continue sliding on a daily chart. We may see a recovery after Thursday EIA report, once all the news is priced in.
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