UGAZ
Natural Gas "UGAZ DGAZ"SO we did fill the gap. I am thinking that we will touch that red line which corresponds to a couple bottoms last year. The question is whether or not we finally start the winter rally or simply set up to fill that last gap. Today a subscription that I get, had an update for XLR (the general energy ETF). Their chart showed the general energy fund dropping until January 18th. Before this came today, I was toying around with the cycle analysis tool and was trying to find a pattern in the cycles (if there were any). Not really an easy task with NG. BUT...I did have that tentative cycle showing a bottom on....coincidently....January 18th. That made me go HMMMM. Is NG going to have a very late winter rally. I think I will hold off on this trade and just watch the price action. If I am correct....THIS TIME....then NG could drop way down there and have a short by rapid winter rally. Perhaps that has something to do with the 10 to 1 reverse split for UGAZ coming up on the 20th.
above is a longer term view of NG with my cycle analysis. It looks pretty fitting.
What to do with NATGAS going forwardNATGASUSD
Double top testing green fib chamber rejected and dropping to bottom of yellow fib chamber. While 2.5 or below is possible it looks as though a double bottom may form at around 2.583 or so matching up with the price in February.
Looking for confirmation of a bounce before riding AMEX:UGAZ all the way back up to an almost guaranteed 3.0 or so.
Be careful and take extra caution when trying to catch a falling knife. Look for confirmation of a double bottom and miss a little profit rather than miss the trend entirely and get cut.
Tentative long if we bounce here. If there is no bounce we may be seeing just the start of a natural gas bear run.
Natural Gas "Historical Evidence discovered"Yep. The title says it all. I have found evidence to support what I believe is future upward price movement over the next 2 months. After many many hours of exhaustive research, I can say with 100% certainty, backed up by years and years of historical data that......IT GETS COLD IN THE WINTER! Just some light humor.
So I have two price targets for this upward move. This is not to be confused with what I think is going to happen by February (a much higher high at least $4.10), I'm talking short term...2 weeks from now before a decent pullback. The first is for Natural gas to reach the 100% measured move of "W" at $3.30, which happened in the beginning of November. There is a pretty good resistance level there as well. The 2nd price target, which is what I am hoping for and which makes a little more sense to me, is the 100% measured move of the first part of this current "Y" wave that began last week. That is the FIB that is colored purple. There is a gap to be filled there AND, a 50% typical correction for this WXY wave move would bring it down to retest the trend line and also stay within the yellow path.
As far as how this would equate to UGAZ prices.....I really don't know yet. I watch the NG chart to get an idea of when we are close to a trend change for UGAZ. I will be watching the structure on the daily to try to figure out where we are in the wave count and weather or not we are close to a warm weather reversal. GL
Natural Gas UGAZ DGAZ. Moon shot for UGAZ coming soon!!I am not sure if we can fill both gaps on Ugaz but it is possible. I am pretty sure that we will fill the first one. Once we get to the bottom of that first gap, I am planning on looking at NG futures to see if it also filled its gap. If not then I might wait until the bottom gap is filled. After that UGAZ would be a huge buy from my wintery perspective.
UGAZ - Who wants to be a millionaire?I want to post it before market close so this is going to be short. If today the bottom is in by the end of next week today's UGAZ position can be in 50% profit.
We are printing all time record volume.
In the past all time record volumes often were the sign of the bottom and a big rally.
The facts:
2016.05.31 - Price rallied from 20 to 51$.
2016.11.08 - Price rallied from 20 to 50$
2017.02.21 - Rally from 13 to 23$
2017.10.19 - Rally from 9.5 to 21$ ???
NEW LONG ENTRY at 10.34$.
Ugaz (natural gas) "short medium and long term"I never post a chart for this stuff but it is in such an incredible buying opportunity location right now that I just had to. There are so many huge gaps above and this is looking like such an easy wave count AND there has been two days of record volume in this last week alone that I cant ignore this. I really think this is at near absolute bottom. If it did not bottom on Friday then I think maybe in the next two days it could reach $8.80 range and then fly. 100% no problem.
On a side note....Oil is doing exactly what I thought it would do....give one more push up. ($54 - $55 range) I think that oil will have another couple days up as well before it starts a drop that could last a few months. GL
Long Natural GasLong b/c of seasonality as well as technicals are starting to look good. Slow Stochastic just broke above 20 and MACD is about to cross.
Full disclosure, had a horrible entry and got smacked. Looking to get my cash back.
T1- first target
T2 -2nd target
*not advice & not a pro trader
UGAZ Prediction: Possible +23% upside moveAt Support level of Channel
Possible Target for next Uptrend = 14.30
+23% upside vs. -5% downside, 4/1 ratio = Great!
DGAZ bearish idea onlyNot trading the markets this week, schedule too busy.
I'll check back with this trade idea next week to see how it panned out.