Tux the Penguin Formation Forming? 🔍Praise Tux the Penguin!
The last time the price formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern (white line in chart), we bounced off of the 50 week MA (curved white line in chart) and formed the final shoulder (Tux penguins). Maybe it could happen with the 200 week MA (blue line)? This would allow us to retest the 50 week MA as resistance, as it has not been tested since April. Is the 50 week average now support or resistance? To me, this is the question the price is trying to answer, hence I don't think longs are irrational, even here.
It's easy to see that if the price were to hit the golden ratio, everyone will be kicking themselves on how they didn't "see the move coming", but in reality a move like this is baked into the market and is not something anyone can see. I'm not really for chasing the wind or anything like that, but I think maybe this is now the most probable option until proven otherwise. Below 18500 should be considered invalidation of this idea. It also seems probable that the end of this final shoulder, if it is to exist, will carry us sideways or possibly below 18500 unless something fundamental changes.
What do you think? Absolute madness!? Are you even more bullish? Do you think it will go sideways?
Thanks for taking a look and don't forget to hedge your bets!
Uhoh
BTCUSD - Looking at wide contingenciesA troll on youtube says that I'm doing too much guessing. Lol. I'm preparing for contingencies. I'd be happy as shit to keep confirming the solid black trend line. But I'll be prepared if we start onto the dotted line.
P Brandt and another friend seem to think we will bounce off 43k. Ironically that's about the top of my re-enty zone should things get dicey. I also agree that if we stay above 30k we're absolutely still long-term bullish on a bigger time-frame with a local downward movement. Probably somewhere in the middle of my massive retrace zone is my most likely expectation should this chart start to confirm the dotted line.
Damn. I'm writing too much. Your eyes and your research should tell you all this. I don't give buy signals but you can and should follow me on youtube for my rampant speculation.
Berkshire Hathaway A [Long term analysis]Good 'ol Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares.
Looks like BRK.A is at a potential reversal zone, and this could be a good chance to either a) Short until desired targets or b) Wait for support and signs of reversal at the 23.6%, 38.2% or 50%. If we do indeed reverse at this zone, this will be our wave 4 correction yielding an extended wave 5 afterward.
According to Elliot Wave theory if a third wave fails to make it past 1.618x of the initial wave 1, you can expect an extended wave 5 which will have targets of 1.0x, 1.618x or 2.618x of wave 1 to 3 projected from the wave 4 bottom. This count is invalidated if we close above $330,000 on the M1 interval.
The R:R on this position would be about 1:3.5
A brief recap of BRK.A drops:
3/1973 - 1/1975 - 59.1% drop (S&P lost 44%) - US economy in recession resulting from oil crisis and fallout from Breton Woods Agreement.
10/1987 - 10/1987 - 37.1% drop (S&P lost 34%) - Black Monday Stock crash.
6/1998 - 3/2000 - 48.9% drop (S&P gained 27%) - Just before dot-com bubble burst.
9/2008 - 3/2009 - 50.7% drop - The darkest days of the great financial crisis.
S/L: $330,000
Entry : $296,000
Target 1: 23.6% / $258,570
Target 2: 38.2% / $223,051
Target 3: 50% / $194,334
"If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs...
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim...
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you...
Yours is the Earth and everything that is in it."