LONDON UJ LONG 618 ON IB IMOMENTUMUsing half of our profit from last trade, we will go for another 2R on this last setup of London. Price has yet made another playbook setup and we must heed by our trading plan and take it.
We have taken far more entries during ASIA/LONDON than we anticipated and although they were all profitable, taking these many entries is NOT what we recommend. Psychology studies suggest that the human mind can typically only make 1-2 rational emotional decisions per day and as we all know when risking capital, we are also risking our psychological capital which opens up risk of trading emotionally and going on TILT, resulting in giving our gains back to the market, or even ending up in a worse position than when we started!
The only reason we are taking this trade is because it is going to be a 'set it and forget it' type of setup, using 1R which is technically "house money" at this point.
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: 25%
Uj
LONDON UJ LONG 618 LIMIT ATRAfter dropping more than 100 pips in such a short time, USDJPY is destined to fall to its death right?.. well, not exactly..
HIGHER TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE BREAK OF A DOWNTREND WITH PRICE FALLING SHARPLY TO THE 618 RETRACEMENT LEVEL OF THE HUGE IMPULSE MOVE MADE LAST WEEK.
I KNOW, I KNOW.. BASED ON LAST SETUP, WE ARE SUPPOSED TO BE DONE FOR THE NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY FOR THE WEEK. HOWEVER, USDJPY HAS MADE AN OFFER WE JUST CANNOT REFUSE AND BECAUSE OF THAT, HAVE DECIDED TO ACT QUICKLY AND TAKE ONE OF OUR PLAYBOOK SETUPS USING OUR PROPRIETARY ATR FOR SL PLACEMENT ( in this case 30 PIPS).
Even if we are wrong, our prior gains allow us to spend 1R to be part of this potential opportunity to at least double our risk.
now we wait, and see probability in action, in real time...
PROBABILITY for success: 50%
UJJust like that we were going to be out, but the US30 trade would have kept us afloat. We stay watching and waiting, close your laptops and enjoy your weekend. Monday is another day and this week if we calculate we should be up roughly 5% which is better than negative and higher than the 3% goal we were aiming for.
USDJPY 4hour Analysis January 22nd, 2023USDJPY Bearish Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4hour Trend: Bearish
Trade scenario 1: Clearly we are bearish overall and in a healthy trend.
Going into this week we’re looking for the trend to continue bearish. Ideally, we can spot clear rejection from our 131.000 area and enter short.
Trade scenario 2: If we are to consider a bullish scenario we would first need to see a break of 131.000 resistance and form structure above.
Retracement on UJ Again?USDJPY has significantly dropped over the past 2 months by a follow up retracement on the broken supports. Here again the price ended the week by a strong impulse to the downside leaving the BOS fresh(unmitigated). probabaly price would gap or maybe even get to the imbalace zone depending on the technical and fundamental aspects that be take effect next week.
JPYX PlanWe can see JPYX has broken a downtrend, and price is holding above the TWAP Currently, I think to start with we can look for JPY Pairs to fall further before eventually finding balance in the previous regression channel despite the fact this had a slight seller imbalance it can be a good long term target if the market can keep breaking the levels suggested.
USDJPY 4hour Analysis January 1st, 2023USDJPY Neutral Idea
Weekly Trend: Bearish
Daily Trend: Bearish
4hour Trend: Bearish
Trade scenario 1: We are clearly looking bearish on UJ as expected due to DXY falling.
There is a strong likelihood we will continue bearish this week but personally I am not satisfied with the current price action, we are a bit extended with a large amount of volume still in the market.
The safest and most ideal scenario would be entering long for a retrace up to 135.000 resistance & our 61.8% fib level.
Trade scenario 2: The other likely scenario is that UJ continues to plummet without any structure. This would make a safe trade scenario very difficult to spot.
USDJPY Buy H4UJ has slowly been gaining momentum since the 700-pip drop last week due to the BOJ Monetary Policy announcement. The pairing finally saw a strong directional bias today after ranging between small resistance and support price points.
The 4 hour chart seems to be showing a bullish bias. Expecting the price to continue to push up, even if slowly.
Entry: 134.500
Targets: 134.750 | 135.000 | 135.230 | 135.450 | 135.600
Resistance: 135.740
Support: 132.450
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