U.K. 10 Year Gilt UK10Y-GB
We are overall at key area but just like EUR I see no fundamental reasons short/medium term on why and who would realistically going into Gilt at this moment of time. Inflation running hot, could estimated by this yr at 13-15%, recession, housing crises and last of all political instability.
UK10YBGBP
10-year Gilts 1-day classic patternsQ: What has the highest probability of occurring?
Since early July there have been 4 tests of 132.000 resistance.
There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at resistance.
The double top, where both tops have been rejected at 132.000, is currently valid.
The head and shoulders, the head consisting of the double top, would need to break the neckline ~129.750 to become valid.
Both patterns equally project 128.250 as the target.
Objectively looking at the entire base beginning around the high volume bar in February it is curve-like. Looking to the weekly timeframe it is quite possible this is the formation of a cup with the handle to follow.
So there is some conflict in this area which can lead to a large number of market participants getting it wrong and as a consequence more momentum. It is quite probable that market participants have already shorted the double top breakout. Waiting for the head and shoulders to confirm with an ~129.750 neckline breakout before entry is advantageous. Stop placement above what appears to be a right shoulder at ~130.750 yields a 1.5R target.
It would also be beneficial to visualise the 1-week handle as a means of guarding against the 1-day head and shoulder pattern failure.
UK100 approaching support, potential bounce! UK100 is approaching our first support at 6771 (61.8%, 100% fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and a strong bounce might occur below this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 7002 (76.4% fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching support and we might see a corresponding bounce in price should it bounce off this level.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks
UK100 approaching support, potential bounce! UK100 is approaching our first support at 6771 (61.8%, 100% fibonacci extension, 50% fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and a strong bounce might occur below this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 7002 (76.4% fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching support and we might see a corresponding bounce in price should it bounce off this level.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks
GBPNZD upside continuation ?Fundamental and Technical reasons why GBPNZD could continue long this week, let me know what you think !
UK 10-year Gilts: Still lots of potentialBonds are holding at the minor projection at 121.72. Due to the underlying bearish momentum we expect a continuation towards the much more important targets at respectively 116.82 and 108.90. Note that this latter level is virtually equal to multiple pivots of 2013-2014.
We maintain our strong negative stance versus bonds. Only a recovery above 125<>125.20 can ease pressure. Such a recovery is currently unlikely.
Primary trend: negative
Outlook: negative
Strategy: hold short and/or short-entry bonds
Support: 121.72 / 116.82* / 108.90
Resistance: 123.30 / 125.10+
Outlook cancelled/neutralized: above 125.10
OANDA:UK10YBGBP
