ridethepig | FTSE Fundamental FlowsHere we are more or less back to square one as to where we were in July and testing away at the resistance.
Buyers are showing a lack of tenacity!
If after the Brexit fact (does not really matter if its a deal or hard brexit deal) we can see the possible outflow pressure really start to make itself felt. The strong counter here should immediately come under pressure with the initial loss of market access and broader global slowdown.
Once again (and with slow and steady pace) start to build some sell side exposure, abandon the overweight UK equities position and employ the following manoeuvres. A test of the centre looks rolled up and ready to take. Make excellent use of the flow towards 5,600.
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Ukequities
ridethepig | Selling the Footsie📌 Exchanging
A quick chart update here for today's flow which is essentially intended to cast some light over No-deal Brexit motives.
In all cases, losing market access is a bad idea in the short-term and particularly when done frantically. The apparently desirable opportunity to cause maximum damage from Downing Street with NDB is playing an important role in hijacking the flows into UK assets. Recommend avoiding a waste of energy and time attempting to defend portfolios with UK exposure and subsequently focusing elsewhere.
Just think back to our coverage of the Pound when buyers were eaten up. This time sellers of UK exposure wish to occupy the downside in Equities to deliver complete annihilation of the economy. With 6,000 holding sellers have time to prevent the recovery and can move lower into Wednesday. The correct path of least resistance is to the downside, a break below 5,775 will leave buyers no choice but to capitulate.
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FTSE Upside limited, eyeballing a 30% correction via Hard BrexitHere actively looking to build a full sized position in UK Equities on the sell side.
=> Hard Brexit now sitting in 'done deal' territory.
=> All UK sectors are starting to cough and beckoning for help.
=> Expecting the shock to be felt in both the Equities market as well as the Pound (see related ideas).
=> This will detonate soon and provide a category 5 hurricane for little England.
There is a more detailed description in the related Sterling idea covering the political side as well as the fundamental side, I would highly recommend reading this for those tracking Brexit in FTSE and Pound. Things are going to get dark very soon.
FTSE gains to prove progressively more difficult to maintainFTSE continues to strengthen, with the bounce from the 6676.56 monthly low of 4 November posting new highs above the psychological 7200 level at 7211.96.
Continuation to the 7236.25 projection is highlighted, but further gains are expected to prove progressively more difficult to maintain, as studies begin to mature. In the coming weeks, profit-taking risks are highlighted, but improving background studies should limit downside tests, as investors maintain a buy-into-weakness strategy.
Support is at congestion around 7000 with any break turning investors cautious once again as subsequent focus turns to the 6875.40 low of 12 December. Further slippage below 6800 will add further weight to sentiment as critical support at 6655/75 then comes into view.
London Stock Exchange analysis.Potential move up to complete the head and shoulders pattern. That could lead to a fall. At the same time, we could see price move back into value to the point of control, and even further. I do doubt we will see a large fall as the UK market has shaken off Brexit uncertainty extremely well. In this case, it is possible that 3000 could be seen.
Bearish FTSE from 7000There is every chance the FTSE could reach 7000. However, I am bearish the market (and global equities in general) and so would not be a buyer of this until there is indication that the market can come off. If we see the European banking crisis speeding up, or corporate debt issues coming to the fore, then this would certainly impact the FTSE and we would see the February low at 5489 be taken out.