Crude clone called Euro?This also needs to be understand by those who think that are trading just euro...Funds lock their positions in EURUSD with those in crude oil!
Understanding the OIL, EUR/USD Correlation
Read - chigrl1.wordpress.com
Most oil exporting countries trade assets in USD, meaning, these countries receive a significant portion of USD inflows from the proceeds of these sales. Thus the foreign currency reserve balances of these oil exporting countries, in a sense, is broadly reflected by the price of oil. We can see this as reflected in the chart below. Up to 2014, reserves increased notably, and then declined considerably as the price of oil fell.
However, data also shows that they invest part of their reserves in EUR, as they sell a large share of their production to the Eurozone.
Thus, when the price of oil falls, this means that a smaller portion of USD is transferred to EUR, thus contributing to a depreciation of the currency. Inversely, when the price of oil increases, a larger portion is transferred to EUR, contributing to the appreciation of the currency. For this reason, many funds lock their positions in EUR/USD with those in crude oil.
Therefore, it is no coincidence that COT data shows crude oil and EUR in lock step.
UKOIL-USOIL
UK OIL: In a kill zone for a controlled lossI show a broad kill zone on 1D chart of UK Oil.
Features:
1. Price coming into a zone of congestion.
2. Double pump on Squeeze momentum - which means movement upward of price is more likely to be a minor rebellion.
3. Price below the ATR line.
4. RSI struggling at this time of publication to get above 50.
Short-sellers should not act on this set up unless they can afford serious losses.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaIs there one more low to come for Crude?
With this count wave 3 of 3 (white) touched the 2.0 extension and wave 5 of 3 stopping near the 0.618 extension.
If we are in wave 4 now price could reach $33,92 (0.382) or $37,03 (0.5) before another leg down in wave 5 below $20. Price has already reached 0.236 which is also a common wave 4 level.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate on these long term ideas:
Oil breached the long term trendline but stopped at another one (below) and at the 1.414 extension exactly. My theory is the bottom is in here and possibly move up towards $60 again as part of a complex corrective move; a break above $5060 would help.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to below idea:
Thinking that a starting wedge maybe forming within a channel up, 5 waves consisting of ABC for each wave which means wave 4 could overlap wave 1; Wave 3 of C (orange) hit 1.272 extension exactly and in the same area as 1.618 of wave 1 (white), could see a pull back towards $52 if this theory is correct.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaPurely a guesstimate as predicting long term is impossible but oil could be in a long term correction (ABC).
Now nearing the end of (b) (shown in bright blue) to the red trendline around the $47 level, before an impulsive move for (c) (of a larger degree B wave) to $95 (point D of the Gartley and between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement of the larger degree A wave), then the larger degree C wave to new lows.
With Gartley removed >
Gartley on its own >
Oil Sees Gap Lower Monday Open Whilst China Equities Drop -8%Headlines:
- China CSI300 plunges -8% as fear of Coronavirus hits market after New Year Holiday break concludes
- Oil Futures gap -1% lower on Monday open as markets reel from weekend news
- Sharjah National Oil Corporation announce discovery of gas field being the first find in on over 30 years
- Coronavirus death toll reaches over 350 and confirmed cases of 17,000 globally
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaBearish flag, or Starting Wedge? Could be either.
A flag or wedge appears to be forming and could be a bearish wave 4 or a bullish wave 1, a break below $5211 would signal a 5th wave down towards $50 and a break above $5735 would cancel out the 5 wave idea and could see price back towards $65...I personally favour the idea that C wave completed at $5211 and we see higher prices from here.
An update to previous ideas below:
Crude Approaching Important Daily Support at $52 per barrelUS & Asian Equities Hit Hard as Investors Try to Calculate Impact of Virus
HEADLINE
- Asian Equities fall during the overnight session whipping of most of year to date gains
- Official death toll from the Coronavirus hits 100 as officials have now extended New Year celebrations in order to stem the flow of the virus
- Crude price approaching key level of support on chart