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Tariffs, NZ unemployment, and rate cuts: Highlights for the weekAfter a packed calendar last week, this one looks lighter—but there are still key events across major economies likely to drive FX market movement. India Tariffs and Oil Prices U.S. President Donald Trump has announced plans to raise tariffs on Indian imports, citing India’s continued purchase and resale of Russian oil. The White House rightly claims this undermines sanctions and helps fund the war in Ukraine. India’s Ministry of External Affairs called the move “unjustified and unreasonable.” New Zealand Jobs Data — Wednesday New Zealand’s Q2 unemployment rate is expected to rise from 5.1% to 5.3%, the highest level since late 2015. With inflation back within the RBNZ’s 1–3% target range, a soft labour print could provide the final justification for a rate cut at the next policy meeting. Bank of England Rate Decision — Thursday The BoE is widely expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points this week, responding to slowing economic momentum despite ongoing inflation concerns. Traders will closely watch Governor Bailey’s remarks to gauge whether this marks the start of a broader easing cycle or a single adjustment.
by BlackBull_Markets
Crude Oil Spikes - Russia / Ukraine / USA sanction? Concerns about the possibility of tighter global oil supplies are supporting crude prices after President Trump warned of "secondary sanctions" if Russia fails to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine within 10 to 12 days. These sanctions have absolutely burned the shorts in oil and can cause a 3 bar surge on the daily chart if crude breaks this channel. Keep you eye on the daily 200 MA...if it holds above we should push higher on crude. FOMC RATE DECISION TOMORROW - Tune into our live stream.
TVC:US10Y
by Trading-Capital
Russia-Ukraine Peace Agreement what could it mean to forex!A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could send ripples through the Forex and Commodities markets. Here's how major assets might react: 📊 Key Market Shifts to Watch: ✅ Risk-On Sentiment Returns Traders may rotate out of safe havens like USD, JPY, CHF, and Gold. Risk currencies like AUD, NZD, and emerging market currencies could strengthen. ✅ Euro Strength Likely (EUR ↑) Europe gains the most relief → energy prices fall, inflation cools, confidence grows. ✅ Oil & Energy Prices May Drop Peace reduces supply fears → crude oil and gas prices could fall → impacting CAD, NOK, RUB. 🔀 Likely Forex Movements: 🔼 Pairs Likely to Rise 💡 Reason EUR/USD Euro up on peace; USD weakens as fear fades. AUD/JPY Aussie rises on risk appetite; Yen weakens. EUR/JPY Similar to AUD/JPY—EUR gains, JPY loses. NZD/JPY Risk-on favors NZD; JPY drops. EUR/CHF Swiss Franc weakens; Euro benefits. USD/ZAR (falls) Rand strengthens on global optimism. 🔽 Pairs Likely to Fall 💡 Reason USD/JPY USD and JPY both weaken, but USD may drop more. USD/CHF Same story—less demand for safe havens. USD/RUB Ruble recovery if sanctions ease. CAD/JPY Oil-sensitive CAD may dip slightly 🟡 What About Commodities Like Gold? (XAU/USD) ⬇️ Gold Likely to Fall As a traditional safe-haven, Gold (XAU/USD) tends to rise during geopolitical turmoil. Peace = lower fear = investors rotate out of Gold into riskier, yield-bearing assets. Lower inflation expectations could also reduce demand for Gold as an inflation hedge. 🧠 Key Level Watch: If peace is confirmed, XAU/USD could drop below key support zones, especially if USD strengthens slightly on rate differentials. 🔍 Final Thoughts: The magnitude of these moves depends on the terms and credibility of the peace deal. If it includes sanctions relief and long-term commitments, expect larger market reactions. Stay alert for central bank policy shifts, especially if inflation drops. 💬 What pairs or commodities are you watching if peace becomes a reality? Drop your insights below! 📌 Follow me for more macro-FX breakdowns, commodities analysis, and trading insights.
Education
by AmaWina
9
Scholz and Macron: Europe, arms for Ukraine Recently, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated their commitment to providing military aid to Ukraine. This decision comes at a crucial time, with the conflict continuing to profoundly affect the global economy and geopolitics. ### Implications for the war and Europe Scholz and Macron's choice to continue with military supplies underscores Europe's determination to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. However, this stance could escalate tensions with Moscow, which has already expressed its displeasure. The war in Ukraine has already had a significant impact on the European economy, with energy prices rising and supply chains disrupted. Continuing to supply weapons could prolong the conflict, but could also strengthen Europe's position as a key player in defending democratic values. ### Impact on Forex The news has significant implications for the Forex market. Several currency pairs could be significantly affected: - **EUR/USD**: The euro could come under pressure due to economic uncertainties and Europe's exposure to the conflict. On the other hand, the US dollar could strengthen due to its safe-haven status. - **USD/RUB**: The Russian ruble could see further depreciation due to geopolitical tensions and potential new Western sanctions against Russia. - **EUR/GBP**: The euro-sterling relationship could be affected, with the euro under pressure and the pound showing relative stability, as the UK is less directly exposed to the conflict. - **USD/CHF**: The Swiss franc, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, could also strengthen against the US dollar in the event of further escalations. - **AUD/USD and CAD/USD**: Commodity currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars could see increased volatility, as natural resource markets remain affected by the conflict. ### Conclusion Scholz and Macron’s decision to continue supplying weapons to Kiev is a strong signal of European solidarity, but it brings with it significant challenges. Forex investors should carefully monitor the listed currency pairs and geopolitical developments, as volatility could offer opportunities, but also risks.
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Trump Zelensky and Putin Phone Calls Hi, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Forex Trader. Today I want to talk to you about how the recent phone calls between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin have had a significant impact on the financial markets, especially the Forex market. In recent days, US President Donald Trump has had crucial phone conversations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. These talks have mainly focused on finding a truce in the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations. Trump-Zelensky Phone Call The call between Trump and Zelensky was described as "very good" by both leaders. During the conversation, Trump promised support for strengthening Ukraine's air defense, with a focus on the resources available in Europe. In addition, the possibility of the United States taking a role in managing Ukraine's energy infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants, to ensure greater security was discussed2. This has opened up hope for a partial truce, with technical negotiations expected in the coming days in Saudi Arabia. Trump-Putin Call The conversation between Trump and Putin, which lasted about three hours, touched on key issues such as the ceasefire and the need for lasting peace. Both leaders agreed on a path that includes a partial ceasefire on energy infrastructure and negotiations to extend the truce to the Black Sea. In addition, they discussed improving bilateral relations between the United States and Russia, with a focus on economic and geopolitical cooperation5. Impact on the Forex Market These developments had an immediate impact on the Forex market. The prospect of a truce strengthened the Russian ruble (RUB) and the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH), while the US dollar (USD) showed slight volatility due to the uncertainties surrounding the negotiations. Investors reacted positively to the possibility of geopolitical stabilization, increasing demand for emerging market currencies. However, the market remains cautious, awaiting further details on the negotiations and the actual implementation of the measures discussed. Conclusion The phone calls between Trump, Zelensky and Putin represent a significant step towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine and stabilizing international relations. For Forex traders, these events offer opportunities but also risks, making it essential to closely monitor geopolitical developments and their implications on financial markets.
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Why gold remains strong: Latest on Ukraine and Yemen Gold remains in high demand as a safe-haven asset, currently trading at $2,998.7 per ounce. Why the need for a haven? Here’s an update: A ceasefire in Ukraine hinges on some unpalatable conditions. Donald Trump has announced plans to speak with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, saying that land and power plants are part of the negotiations. Reports suggest his administration is considering recognising Crimea as Russian territory and may push for UN recognition. In the Middle East, the U.S. carried out military strikes over the weekend on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen. The strikes came after the group threatened to resume attacks on Red Sea shipping. Trump has declared that Iran will be held directly responsible for “for every shot fired” by the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels. In response, the Houthis vowed to “respond to escalation with escalation.”.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
US-Ukraine minerals deal: key commodities at stake Ukraine is set to sign an “improved” minerals deal with the US after the US dropped its claim to $500 billion in potential revenue, according to the FT. The news has boosted the euro and market sentiment, but what about the commodities involved? Ukraine holds about 5% of the world's critical raw materials, essential for EVs, clean energy, and defense. Its untapped reserves, valued at over £12 trillion, include lithium, titanium, and graphite. The US is eager to secure these resources to reduce reliance on China, which dominates 75% of rare earth production. Ukraine has commercially viable deposits of 117 key minerals. It holds 500,000 tonnes of lithium, vital for rechargeable batteries, and one of Europe's largest titanium reserves, used in aerospace and military industries. Ukraine also holds 20% of global graphite resources, crucial for EV batteries and nuclear reactors. However, 20% of Ukraine’s land, including regions with £6 trillion in mineral wealth, is currently under Russian occupation. Bordering areas containing £2.8 trillion in resources, faces an advancing Russian military.
COMEX:LTH1!
by BlackBull_Markets
Will We See the Euro Trading Below Par?CME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) #Microfutures Since the US election last November, the Euro currency has lost ground against the US dollar, with the EUR/USD exchange rate sliding from 1.08 to as low as 1.02. A combination of new policies from the Trump administration aims to strengthen the dollar. Recent efforts to end the geopolitical crisis will not support the euro. On the contrary, they could push the European common currency below the critical 1-dollar level. Quick Review of the EUR/USD Price Trend The euro has swung widely against central bank policies and geopolitical events: • 2020: The Fed implemented massive stimulus measures in response to the pandemic. Lowering interest rates and increasing money supply reduced the value of the USD • 2021: The faster vaccine rollout and quicker reopening of the US economy boosted economic growth and investor sentiment towards the USD • 2022: (1) The Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation, making the USD more attractive to investors compared to the Euro. (2) Europe faced an energy crisis due to its dependence on Russian gas. This crisis led to economic uncertainty and weakened the euro. (3) Ongoing geopolitical tensions created economic instability in Europe, further weakening the euro against the USD • Q4 2022 and 2023: European Central Bank abandoned its long-held zero-rate policy in September 2022. It raised rates eight times to 4.00%. These actions narrowed the interest rate differentials between the US and Europe, and helped the euro rebound • 2024: The EUR/USD moved mainly sideways in the range of 1.06 and 1.12. Fed easing and rebounds of US inflation contributed to the mild volatility. • Q4 2024 to Current. Dollar ascended quickly after the election win of Donald Trump. Investors expect strong dollar with the support of the new America First policies Ukraine Peace Talks and Possible Outcomes On February 12th, Presidents Trump and Putin agreed to immediately start negotiations to end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. On February 18th, US and Russian officials held peace talks in Saudi Arabia. The two sides agreed to create a high-level team to lead the Ukraine peace talks. Neither Ukraine nor the EU participated in the meeting. How the peace talks would progress remain highly uncertain. Using Game Theory, we could break them down into two mutually exclusive and collectively inclusive outcomes: • Peace: US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU sign a peace agreement to end the conflict and ensure long-lasting peace. Whether it will be a fair treaty is a hotly debated topic. • No-Peace: Peace talks break down. The 3-year-long conflict continues. This could last for years but eventually will lead to a win/loss outcome or a draw. From an investing perspective, “No-Peace” is equivalent to “Risk On”. It may imply higher gold prices, higher energy costs and lower equity value. Meanwhile, “Peace” means “Risk Off”. We may see declining gold, lower oil and gas, and rising stock prices. However, it would be difficult to pick the price direction if we can’t predict the outcome. Peace or No Peace – A Steep Cost for Europe For better or worse, the recent events are a wakeup call to European countries. The US had defense spending totaling $967 billion in 2024, which is 3.49% of its GDP. For a comparison, the total defense spending for EU member states reached $358 billion in 2024. This represents around 1.9% of the EU's GDP • The US accounted for 73% of the defense spending in the 32 countries in NATO • Since 2022, the US contributed to 2/3 of all the financial aids sending to Ukraine The US administration intends to cut its financial support. Europe will have to increase defense spending dramatically. In a worst case, a complete breakdown in Cross-Atlantic relations could see the US exiting NATO and all US troops withdrawing from Europe. How much is the spending gap? In 2024, Russia had defense budget of $462 billion, or 6.7% of its GDP. Ukraine had defense budget of $40 billion, or 22% of its GDP. • EU plus Ukraine spent $64 billion less than Russia in defense budget. In my opinion, in a Peace scenario and with reduced US involvement, the EU defense budget must surpass that of Russia to ensure Ukraine to stay on top. I find this to be 2.5% of GDP. This means a 32% increase or $471 billion in total defense spending. For No-Peace, the EU will be fighting an active war. NATO will need to maintain a standing army of 1 million troops and rebuild an entire defense industry. In this scenario, I feel that the defense budget needs to double 5% of GDP. budget to raise a large army and rebuild an entire defense industry. This means a 163% increase or $942 billion in total defense spending. If the above numbers sound outrageous, Israel, a country constantly fighting for its survival, will serve as a good refence point. In 2024, Israel's defense spending amounted to 117.5 billion Israeli shekels (around $32.5 billion USD), which is 6.7% of its GDP. The EU has an estimated GDP growth at 0.9% in 2024 and a forecast growth of 1.5% in 2025. The defense budget increase will cause mandatory cuts in non-defense spending. The combined effect will be negative, pushing GDP growth into a negative territory. In my opinion, re-arming Europe is critical to its survival. However, defense buildup comes at a steep cost. The expectations of lower GDP growth will push the value of Euro currency lower, likely below the 1-dollar critical level. Commitment of Traders shows diminishing bullish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 11th, total Open Interest (OI) for CME Euro FX Futures is 622,873 contracts. “Asset Manager” (i.e., hedge funds) own 338,182 in Long, 177,937 in Short and 35,597 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 1.9:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 1,014 while increasing short positions by 2,249. • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on the Euro. Trade Setup with Micro Euro/USD Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the CME Micro Euro/USD Futures ($M6E). M6E contracts have a notional value of 12,500 euro. With February 19th settlement price of 1.0435, each March contract (M6EH5) has a notional value of $13,044. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $260. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March M6E contract and the euro drops to $0.99. A short futures position would gain $668.75 (= (1.0435 – 0.99) x $12500). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +257% (= 668.75 / 260). The risk of shorting euro futures is rising euro. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set a stop-loss at 1.06 when entering the short order at 1.0435. If euro rebounds, the maximum loss would be $206.25 ( = (1.06 – 1.0435) *12500). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
Gold reacts to unserious peace talksThe United States and Russia recently held peace talks in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine’s participation. Russian officials did not mention offering any concessions and U.S. officials did not claim to have scored any in Tuesday's meeting. Adding to the unseriousness of the talks, Donald Trump called Zelensky a “dictator,” and suggested that Ukraine is responsible for the war, echoing obvious Russian talking points. Gold rose above $2,930 per ounce on Wednesday, just shy of last week’s record high of $2,940. Technical indicators remain in extreme overbought territory, although extreme geopolitical uncertainty may call for extreme readings for longer. In the near term, the pullback appears corrective, with XAU/USD still holding above all key moving averages on the 4-hour chart.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Trump-Putin Ukraine Deal: Impacts on Forex Hello, I am Professional Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an important news that is shaking up the global markets: Donald Trump has apparently reached an agreement with Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, with an agreement that includes Ukraine's exit from NATO. The historic meeting between the two leaders will take place in Saudi Arabia and this move is expected to have a profound impact on the global geopolitical and financial landscape, especially on the Forex market. Geopolitical and Economic Impact: The announcement of a possible agreement between Trump and Putin could mark a significant turning point in the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine were to actually leave NATO, it would open a new phase of stability for the region, but at the same time it could create uncertainty on the geopolitical borders. This decision will directly affect the currency markets, in particular the currencies of the countries involved, the main European currencies and the US dollar. In the current context, the war in Ukraine is one of the main causes of economic instability worldwide. Any end to hostilities could lead to a reduction in economic sanctions and a revival of trade flows between Russia, Europe and the United States. These changes will be closely monitored by traders, as any geopolitical fluctuations could affect the dynamics of currencies globally. Implications for Forex: A possible agreement between Trump and Putin could have a direct impact on Forex, especially on the following currencies: Russian Ruble (RUB): A peace agreement would lead to a possible revaluation of the ruble. International sanctions against Russia could be gradually removed, boosting the Russian economy and supporting demand for the ruble in global markets. Euro (EUR): Ukraine's exit from NATO could lead to greater stability for European countries involved in the conflict, but it could also reduce the risk associated with energy and military security. In the short term, the Euro could appreciate against riskier currencies, but the situation could vary depending on the political reactions in Europe. US Dollar (USD): The dollar could react positively if the Trump-Putin deal is seen as a stabilization of international relations, but it will also depend on how the Federal Reserve responds to evolving economic conditions. A slowdown in the conflict could reduce the uncertainty that has pushed markets towards the dollar as a safe haven. British Pound (GBP): The pound could benefit from a possible de-escalation of the crisis, but again, domestic political factors in the UK, such as its post-Brexit negotiations, will continue to influence the currency. What to expect in the coming days: News of the Trump-Putin meeting in Saudi Arabia will be watched closely by the markets. If the details of the deal are confirmed, we can expect an immediate reaction in the currency markets. Forex is likely to see increased volatility in the currency pairs tied to the nations involved, with shifts in capital flows that could reflect a new perception of risk or stability. Conclusions: In summary, the Trump-Putin deal could be a turning point in the war in Ukraine and have a significant impact on financial markets, especially Forex. Investors will need to carefully monitor geopolitical developments and prepare for possible currency fluctuations. With the end of hostilities, stability could return to favor some currencies, but the situation remains delicate and constantly evolving.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Trump-Putin call sparks euro rallyThe euro surged to session highs after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-minute call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which they agreed to visit each other and initiate negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Trump stated that peace talks would begin “immediately.” Technically, the euro rebounded from downtrend support, keeping attention on a potential breakout at the January range of 1.02–1.05. Bears potentially remain vulnerable as long as the pair holds above the 1.02 level. Shortly after his conversation with Putin, Trump spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky later confirmed the discussion, describing it as “meaningful” and mentioning plans for a new agreement on security, economic cooperation, and resource partnerships.
by BlackBull_Markets
Russian nuclear warning lifts gold Gold extended gains for a second session, climbing to $2,630 as tensions between Russia and Ukraine reignited demand for safe-haven assets. Russia unveiled an updated nuclear doctrine Tuesday, paving the way for potential use of atomic weapons, just as Ukraine deployed U.S.-manufactured missiles on Russian soil for the first time since the war began. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called on the U.S. and its allies to take note of Moscow’s revised nuclear policies. On the technical front, gold’s recovery may have further room to run, with the 4-hour chart signaling potential upside. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) suggests trend momentum remains muted. Key resistance levels include $2,639 and the 200-day simple moving average at $2,654.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
4 Political Tensions Fueling Gold Prices As gold aims to test record high again, let's look at some of the political issues possibly driving the price action. Iran Tensions Escalate: The Pentagon has dispatched a guided missile submarine and a carrier strike group, to the Middle East. This move follows Iran's vow of retaliation against Israel after a senior Hamas leader was killed in Tehran last month. With nearly two weeks passing without a retaliation, the atmosphere remains tense. US Political Landscape: A recent New York Times/Siena poll places Vice President Kamala Harris, who is on a swing state tour, ahead of former President Donald Trump by four points in key battleground states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, with nearly three months left until the election, the race remains fluid. Trump is set to appear in an interview with Elon Musk on the X platform, looking for a shift in momentum. US Economic Concerns: Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan warned that U.S. consumers might become “dispirited” if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts. He emphasized that once consumer sentiment turns negative, recovery becomes challenging. However, Moynihan acknowledged that Bank of America no longer anticipates a recession. Ukraine’s Military Advance: Ukraine’s top military commander reported control over 1,000 square kilometers of Russia’s neighboring Kursk region, with Russia evacuating over 76,000 residents from western Kursk. Russia is now evacuating residents from a second border region as Ukraine's surprise week-long offensive within Russian territory intensifies.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Yield CurveThe 2/10 treasury yield spread is quickly flattening and an inversion could happen soon. All of the previous yield curve inversions are associated with memorable market sell-offs and recessions. I believe the ripple effect of the ongoing financial and economic sanctions against Russia will end up being the catalyst for the next meltdown. The market conditions have been favorable to a disaster by many measurements for some time now. Again, there are many unknown cross-currents beginning to work their way into the global economy. On top of that, the FED is raising interest rates in less than two weeks.
TVC:US10Y
by The_Arena_Trader
11
Wheat and Fertilizer Futures: A Cash Cow for War Mongers In this layout I have Black Sea Wheat and Corn, Australian and Ukrainian Wheat, and 4 main Fertilizer (UREA) Futures. Conflict and Wars are good ways for Financial Institutions like Black Rock and State Street Corp oration to make a lot of money. What better way than to destroy the wheat fields/silos themselves and profit at the same time? These markets are built in blood and they are sitting on Advanced Fibonacci Blueprints showing who is really in control. Volatility may be seen as many Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Wheat supplies will undergo straining for the foreseeable future.
CBOT:AUW1!Long
by MichaelBsul
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In RussiaI write this as I listen to Tchaikovsky's Violin Concerto in D Major on the excellent Shen Yun Zuopin platform. It seemed quite fitting for watching the world burn. When you hear propaganda on English social media on a Saturday night that a group of mercenaries are raiding Moscow to overthrow Putin, you absolutely must take what you are hearing and seeing with an entire box of Maldon. Before we begin, I will provide you with the DXY Monthly, which shows the topography more clearly than the daily bars I use for the moving graph: Remember it wasn't even 10 days ago that the US Military was running an exercise in the streets in the United States and the QAnon cultists/CIA campaign were trying to tell people it was because Donald Trump was about to overthrow Joe Biden. The United States has three significant abilities that exceed its direct military power and are why it's able to empire around the world: 1. Masters of propaganda and manipulation 2. A stranglehold on the world economy via the Petrodollar and its oil/LNG production 3. Intelligence, subversion, corruption, and cyber warfare operations No matter what you hear, the war in Ukraine directly involves NATO because NATO member countries are all over the area West of Russia and Belarus, and Washington is the leader of NATO. Wagner PMC and Prigozhin himself are rather savvy propagandists and tacticians. They previously used the narrative that there was much discontent between themselves, the superheroes of the Bakhmut campaign, and the Russian military's old guard, to bait Ukraine into attacking. The end result was a lot of dead UAF and a captured city for the Russian Federation. Moreover, many things right now serve as a distraction to keep the world's eyes and ears away from what's going on inside of mainland China and the coming fall of the Chinese Communist Party. Perhaps Xi Jinping will be this decade's Mikhail Gorbachev and will one night dump the CCP, much to the consternation and dismay of a totally clueless majority mankind. This matter, and the persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong by the former Jiang Zemin regime, which Xi has directly contested since he took power a decade ago (this is what the "Anti-corruption campaign" is really annihilating), is what you really need to focus on, rather than "World War III" propaganda. So, you shouldn't go too hard on Sunday and Monday selling equity futures and getting long on gold because you've been told on Twitter that World War III is coming. What you want to do is take a calm and rational look at what can happen. And what can happen entirely revolves around the US Dollar. Right now, the USD looks as if it will pump, rather than dump. Like it or not, it looks like it's going to pump, rather than dump. But the confirmation for the trade comes down to whether or not DXY can breach $105.883. If it can breach $105.883 either in the remaining six trading days of June or in the early portion of July, then we have two scenarios, in my opinion: Whether the target is only the $108-$109 Point of Concern Whether the target is $115-$118-$120 above the '22 high. Frankly speaking, if you look at yearly bars for the DXY: Then literally $135 is en route before 2030. But if $109 is all we have today then $98 is incoming. Generally speaking, it's really worth remembering that USD up = risk off on equities. What's important in life isn't making money in the markets, but it's your family, your friends, your heart, your soul, and your future. Trading should just be a vector for your personal and spiritual development. Gamblers are going to lose more than their shirts, you hear? See the additional calls below for more broad spectrum macro analysis of the situation.
TVC:DXY
by LordWrymouth
3
Raytheon - A Potential Earnings Pump To WatchEveryone wants to get rich quick. Because getting rich quick means you: a) Get rich b) Quick Then you can wear big ugly sunglasses, a crappy t-shirt, flipflops, sit on the beach, eat a lot of meat, drink a lot of alcohol, and be promiscuous with women. This is the modern human's dream, right? And so everyone loves to speculate on potential earnings pumps and dumps. There really is more to aim for in life. Raytheon is one of the U.S. Military Industrial Complex cornerstones and is more or less a weapons mill for the NATO proxy war in Ukraine, which is of note because of the recent escalations of the conflict and how it can affect the U.S. Petrodollar, and thus bonds, oil, gold, equities, everything. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia Geopolitically, the conflict between China and the International Rules Based Order is heating up. The current edict is to "de-risk but not decouple" from China (notice they never say "from the Chinese Communist Party"?). In mid-June CEO Hayes was quoted by the propaganda machines as stating that decoupling from China was pretty much impossible because of all the parts and components that are manufactured in the mainland. What this means, if you ask me, is that going forward, certain companies are going to have a very hard time meeting their target EPS and revenue estimates. Raytheon may very well be one of them, as foreshadowed by a salvo of sanctions the Xi Jinping administration placed on them and Lockheed Martin. The situation in China is very volatile right now. The IRBO wants control of China when the CCP falls. Xi Jinping and the other nationalists want to make sure that outside forces do not steal the motherland. And so one day soon, we may find that Xi has thrown away the CCP in the middle of the U.S. night, and the markets will have themselves a series of consecutive red days like we've all never seen before. Xi can weaponize the crimes against humanity that the Party and the Jiang Zemin faction have committed in the persecution of Falun Gong that started on July 20, 1999, and use the truth to protect both himself and China. Organ harvesting and genocide of a group of 100 million spiritual cultivators with upright faith is certainly enough of a weapon to handle all the threats the motherland can be facing. So why do you care about this if you're trading Raytheon? Because a basic principle of markets is they go up when big money is selling and go down when big money is buying. Raytheon and other military companies ironically never really pumped following the QE recovery from the COVID pandemic dump. It wasn't until the Ukraine War began that Raytheon finally ran the highs. And then it retraced. That kind of retrace is actually really bullish and what bulls should want to see if they want their $145 billion~ company to become a $1.4 trillion company. But the problem with the theory is more manifest on the weekly charts: 31 weeks of ranging and no breakout is not bullish. And yet, after taking lows, it continues to recover. The most notable price swing is the $105 to $92 leg that just occurred. I feel that Raytheon has some fundamental hidden bearish divergences to it and this is why it has traded this way all along, with the ultimate purpose of selling a lot high, and then selling it all above the all time high. This hidden divergence, I think, is that U.S.-based companies may find themselves cut off from the Chinese supply chain in the very near future. Only to tip all the bulls on their backs like stranded turtles and then dump and dump and dump and dump and not come back. So I believe that with the setup at hand, the catalyst is actually the July earnings. But if you look back at previous earnings, Raytheon doesn't have major pumps. It can go a bit and then it will run after. Implied volatility on options for the July 28 expiry are only 20%, slightly higher than the 17% average. But before we get there, I expect we're going to see prices return to the $92-93 range and give the best buying opportunity. The catalyst for this, I believe, will simply be market-wide correction, which I outline in the following two posts: Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap And SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' In summary, there will be a shakeout in equities that will probably not be long lived, even if it's violent. And after that, things will make their final run up, many of which will set new highs or new 52W highs, etc. What's left for the remainder of 2023 and the start of 2024 doesn't look like it's going to be very pleasant, to speak frankly. So make sure if you see Raytheon at a new high, you don't go getting ahead of yourself, longing the top.
NYSE:RTXLong
by LordWrymouth
1
Wheat (World) - Short Bias; Cheap Ukrainian wheat everywhere!Sure, it is winter in the northern hemisphere so why even bother with the grains at all? ... ... Because cheap Ukrainian wheat had absolutely flooded European markets, so much so that very soon they will have to start dumping some of it into the ocean! (Right now, they are trying to air out these mountains of grain, so it wouldn't mold, but that will go only so far.) Normally, this time of the year, 55-60 ships per week get loaded with Ukrainian wheat, headed for Africa and Asia. As of last week, these numbers are down to 19 ships . Russia closed the Bosporus to Ukrainian wheat (and oil seed) shipments. As an alternative solution, Ukraine is shipping most of its harvest to the EU - mostly Poland & Germany - to load it on ships in those ports. - But guess what ... ... shipping it all to Europe AND THEN load it onto ships makes the whole proposition economically non-viable. (Well below producer cost.) So now, the endless trainloads of grains, continuously pouring into the EU, gets dumped all over EU markets (at 40%-60% discounts!) because long empty local silos are all filled to capacity. There is now zero (0) storage capacity left anywhere in Europe! (... and the endless trainloads just keep on coming.) ... making this trade - not a monster - rather a no-brainer. (Like free beer)
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
10
Grain Strain: How Geopolitical Unrest Threatens Wheat Prices AmiOpinion: The recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, following the assassination attempt on the Russian president, has raised concerns about the potential impact on global wheat prices. This situation becomes even more significant if Russia decides to withdraw from its agreements with Ukraine. As major players in the global wheat market, Russia and Ukraine together account for about 29% of the world's wheat exports, with Russia being the largest exporter, contributing around 18.5% in 2020. Any disruptions in their wheat production or export capabilities can have substantial implications for international prices, particularly considering the inelastic demand for wheat. Wheat, as a staple food for many populations, has an inelastic demand, meaning that changes in its price have a relatively small impact on the quantity demanded. Given this inelastic nature, disruptions in the wheat supply due to geopolitical issues may result in significant price fluctuations, as consumers' demand remains relatively constant despite price increases. In the event of Russia's withdrawal from its agreements with Ukraine, several consequences could directly or indirectly affect global wheat prices: Intensified conflict and regional instability may disrupt wheat production and transportation. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the conflict has already led to a 15-20% reduction in agricultural production in affected areas. Further escalation could exacerbate these issues, limiting wheat production and export capabilities for both countries. The resulting supply shortages could disproportionately affect wheat prices, given the inelastic demand. Geopolitical uncertainties created by the conflict could lead to trade restrictions and sanctions. In the past, Western countries have imposed sanctions against Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine. For example, in 2014, the United States and the European Union imposed economic sanctions on Russia, which impacted various sectors, including agriculture. If the situation deteriorates, additional sanctions could limit Russia's ability to export wheat to certain markets, creating supply chain disruptions and increasing the volatility of wheat prices on the global market, even with the inelastic demand. Potential impacts on wheat prices could prompt other major wheat producers to adjust their production levels in response to shifting global demand. For instance, countries like the United States, Canada, and Australia may increase domestic production or seek alternative sources to secure their wheat supplies. As of 2021, these countries collectively contributed around 30% of the world's wheat exports. Changes in their production strategies could further affect global wheat prices, especially considering the inelastic nature of wheat demand. The heightened uncertainty due to the assassination attempt on the Russian president and the subsequent escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine could lead to increased speculation in the commodities market. In 2021, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures saw significant price fluctuations in response to changing geopolitical situations. Traders may continue to react to the heightened uncertainty by buying or selling wheat futures contracts, which can influence short-term price movements and contribute to market volatility, despite the inelastic demand. In conclusion, the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have the potential to significantly impact global wheat prices, particularly if Russia withdraws from its agreements with Ukraine. Consequences of such a decision could include disruptions to wheat production and transportation, trade restrictions and sanctions, adjustments in global wheat production, and increased market speculation. The inelastic nature of wheat demand could exacerbate these impacts, leading to considerable price fluctuations. To mitigate the potential effects of these developments on wheat prices, it is essential for governments, producers, and traders to closely monitor the situation and develop contingency plans to ensure the stability of wheat supplies and markets. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by TheBitcoinGeneration
1