Ukraine
XAUUSD ANALYSISHey traders, above is an overview on gold and the most important zones to watch, we have a lot of criteria that indicates that gold is on a bullish momentum, first of all we have a bullish AUD that correlates positively with gold, Secondly as you should know Gold and USD have a negative correlation together, and USD is still performing bearish due to the Ukraine's matter so more weakness on USD must push Gold more up in the medium term at least above 1900s zones. then we can expect some potential Pullback arond 1915 zone..
i hope you to trade safe especially with all the environment of currencies with Ukraine's situation, Joe.
Japanese yen drifting, Fed minutes nextThe Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week and is trading at 115.46 in the North American session, down 0.12% on the day.
The US dollar enjoyed a boost earlier in the week as tensions between Russia and the West reached a fever pitch. Now that the situation has stabilized somewhat, investors are breathing easier and the dollar has lost ground. Still, there is apprehension in the air and a lack of clarity as to what happens next. Russia says that it has moved some troops away from attack positions, but the US says there is no proof of this. President Biden took to the airwaves on Tuesday and warned the Russians of severe consequences if it attacked Ukraine while saying it was not too late to reach a diplomatic solution.
In the US, a strong retail sales report for January provided something for investors to digest other than news from Ukraine. Retail Sales jumped 3.8% m/m, crushing the estimate of 2.0% and rebounding from the 2.5% decline in December. High inflation helped boost the retail sales numbers, but consumers are buying more goods and services as well.
Investors will now shift their attention to the Fed minutes, which will be released later today. We've been hearing a hawkish message from some FOMC members of late, and the minutes could well reflect the hawkish pivot that the Fed has reluctantly embraced due to red-hot inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently abandoned his stance that inflation was transitory and a March liftoff for hikes is essentially a done deal. The markets have priced in six hikes, although some FOMC members have suggested that three or four hikes will suffice to rein in inflation close to the Fed's target of 2 per cent.
There is weak resistance at 115.56. Above, there is resistance at 114.52
There is support at 112.87 and 112.26
XAUUSD LONG TO 1860Pretty self explanatory as everything is labelled on the charts. I am expecting a corrective wave back up towards 1860-1870 as Wave 2 before we see the next wave of sell offs.
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Russian de-escalation sharply moving marketsSeveral equities have reacted sharply to the suggestion that Russia is de-escalating its presence on the Russia/Ukraine border.
As reported by Reuters, Russia has begun to move an undisclosed number of its troops away from the Ukrainian border after completing mock defence exercises. Even so, tensions have not entirely dissipated. NATO, US, and UK officials remain cautious of the situation, with Boris Johnson noting that "the intelligence that we're seeing today is still not encouraging".
The markets have been more eager to embrace talk of de-escalation.
European Equities spent Tuesday rebounding sharply. The STOXX Europe 600, which is comprised of 600 stocks across 17 European exchanges, broke a three-day losing streak and rose 1.43%.
On an individual bourse level, the Italian stock market Index, the IT40, led the way back into positive territory, up 2.17% over the trading day. The German (DAX30) and French (CAC40) indices followed closely, each climbing ~1.9%, and the UK's FTSE100 climbed up 0.98%.
US stocks reacted in a similar manner when they opened a few hours after Europe. The US market has recently closed where the NASDAQ rose 2.24%, the S&P500 rose 1.36%, and the Dow Jones rose 1.06%.
Commodities also make significant moves on news that Russia is de-escalating.
Naturally, commodities would be significantly affected by a war between Russia and Ukraine and NATO affiliated nations that have reacted the sharpest.
WTI and Brent have pulled back a shocking 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively. On Monday, Brent oil prices were pushing their way up to USD 100 per barrel after crossing USD 95 per barrel. Before the turnaround in the oil price, talk of USD 110 per barrel was beginning to filter into market predictions.
Russia and Ukraine are two of the largest exporters of Wheat. As such, supply concerns for the soft commodity have eased slightly, and with it, the price has pulled back from its two week high. Wheat is now trading down 2.63% to USD 7.8 per bushel. Low supplies could temper more downside for Wheat in Canada and the US.
Other major exports of the region are trading down on the easing tensions. Corn, Iron Ore, and Soybean are all trading down 2.86%, 1.37%, and 1.27%, respectively.
Canadian dollar flat, CPI nextIt has been a quiet week for the Canadian dollar, despite the crisis between Ukraine and Russia, which has captivated the world's attention. The lack of movement could change on Wednesday, as Canada releases the inflation report for February.
Canada's CPI looked weak in December, with a reading of -0.1% m/m. However, inflation is expected to have jumped in January, with a consensus of a strong gain of 0.6%. A reading within expectations would indicate that high inflation remains alive and well and will put pressure on the Bank of Canada to take aggressive action in order to curb inflation.
BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has said that more rate hikes are coming in order to lower inflation to the central bank's 2% target, but other than that hasn't provided any guidance. Macklem has maintained that inflation is transitory and will ease in the second half of the year but he may have to adjust his stance, as we saw with Fed Chair Powell, if inflation continues to accelerate.
The crisis on the Ukraine/Russia border remains a powder keg that could explode at any time. Somewhat surprisingly, this major geopolitical development has not affected the Canadian dollar, which is a minor currency that is sensitive to risk sentiment. That could change if there are dramatic moves in the next few days, such as a Russian invasion, which could see the currency tumble, or a Russian troop withdrawal from the border, which would be bullish for the Canadian dollar.
There are still hopes that a diplomatic solution can be reached and there have been reports of some Russian troops withdrawing from the border. The solution to the crisis is firmly in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The West has no intention of supporting Ukraine militarily, so the key question is whether the threat of sanctions is enough to dissuade Putin from starting a war in central Europe.
USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2818 and 1.2873
1.2679 is being tested in support for a second straight day. Below, there is support at 1.2595
BITCOIN Daily TA : 02.15.22 $BTCAccording to the previous analysis, we see that the price is now following scenario number 1 and has reached the very important resistance level (X-Point) in the range of $ 44,400, if it succeeds in breaking this resistance, the next bullish target is $ 45,500. In order to break this important resistance, the daily candle close above 46K will be the first condition to continue the uptrend.
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 15.Feb.22
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Euro extends losses on Ukraine crisisThe euro has started the week in negative territory, after sharp losses on Friday. EUR/USD is struggling to remain above the 1.13 level.
The crisis on the Ukraine/Russia border has reached a fever pitch, with the US saying it expects an invasion as early as Wednesday. There are some signals that a diplomatic solution can be found, but a Russian invasion remains a very real possibility. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Kyiv and will travel to Moscow for a last-ditch effort to prevent a Russian attack, which would have a massive impact on the financial markets. The euro fell close to 1% last week, mostly on jitters over fears of a Russian invasion. I expect the currency to remain under pressure as the crisis continues.
In the US, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday that the Fed must move more rapidly in raising rates. Bullard admitted that the Fed was "surprised to the upside on inflation". Bullard, who is one of the most hawkish voting members, said last week that the Fed should raise rates by a full percentage point by July. The markets are leaning towards a 50 basis point hike in March, with a 61% likelihood, according to CME's FedWatch. Bullard added that he was especially concerned with the surge in inflation since it was broad-based and was not showing any signs of easing.
There are other voices in the Fed, of course, and investors will be looking for guidance from the Fed on the course of rate hikes this year. The Fed minutes, which will be released Wednesday, could provide some insights into the Fed's plans.
1.1437, a monthly resistance line, is under pressure. Above, there is resistance at 1.1577
There is support at 1.1233 and 1.1014
Is Russia Setting Crypto up for Success?In this video:
(0:00-3:00) Recap news: Ukraine, Russia, Coinbase, Crypto Illiquidity
(3:01-4:25) U.S. Dollar Strengthening
(4:26-5:14) VIX up
(5:15-5:44) Indexes Down
(5:45-6:38) Bitcoin Dominance Rising!
(6:39-8:20) Bitcoin Rising but still under significant resistance
(8:21-12:56) Is Russia setting crypto up for success? Could they be planning to subvert the U.S. Dollar?
(12:56-End) Outro
Stonk-Crypto Update (#7) : Deep Focus on AAPL & GOLDHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Ticker: XOM - 2/14/22 - 4 Hour Ticker: XOM - 2/14/22 - 4 Hour
🟢 Safe Entry Confirmation: 80.21 Break, retest and hold of structure with momentum
🟡 Scalp Target:80.32, 80.50
🔴 Daytrade Target: 80.60
🟣 Swing Target:80.80
💀STOP LOSS/Trigger for puts: 80.00
📝 IDEAL CONTRACTS:
RISKY DAYTRADE: 82 XOM 02/18 (Mental SL)
MEDIUM RISK SWING: 80 XOM 02/25 (30% SL)
GAMBLE: 85 XOM 02/18 SQ P 1/14 (SIZE FOR 0)
💡Notes: Falling wedge hold above the 50 moving average (red). Volume at the bottom is increasing bar after bar. Liquidity secured from downside + BOS. Looking for continuation if price can hold 80.21 with sos (signs of strength). Puts break through 80 with momentum to grey key levels.
Market Fear Causes Respect of > [ 157.3 ] Weekly Zone / GbpJpyThis is my bias as we move into the new week of trading. I was confident after Thursday Daily candle closure that we would finally get a close above 157.300 on the Weekly and Daily Timeframes. The News on Friday caused us to respect this zone on the HTF's . I'm looking for Sells for the first few sessions of the week. My bias will change uf we get a strong 4hr close above 156.845. Looking for limit orders entries as I don't thnk these prices can hold given current market sentiment and fud. I like 156.845