Bearish divergence at resistance for BPBP has rallied into resistance at around the 500p level. This is probably a call to take a bit of profit rather than initiate a speculative short. Medium to Long term we are a fan of the oil majors.
FTSE 100 Index
Sell Babcock InternationalBabcock has failed at the top end of a well-defined downtrend channel. The shares are under performing the benchmark on a relative basis across multiple time frames and making new lows.
Sell with a stop at 963.5p and target 851p
Buy DCCDCC has corrected sharply in recent weeks and now appears to be stabilizing in line with the dominant uptrend support line. The bullish divergence on the RSI is another reason to believe that a bounce could be seen in the short term.
Buy UnileverUnilever has formed a small base on the daily chart inline with major support. There is also bullish divergence on the RSI and we believe scope for a bounce towards 3400p in the short term.
We could see this grind towards the target over the Christmas period.
Feeling toppy, 7005 7030 resistance We have the Fed rate decision later, expected rate rise to 0.75%. The FTSE will likely be fairly flat today, but has resistance at 7005 and 7030. 6975 which was the Hull 100 moving average on the 2 hour chart has capped the Tuesday bull run, though bulls will be keen to keep the momentum going with 6950 support. Below that then 6860 is daily support for the moment.
With the Dow nearly at 20000, traders might be a bit hesitant to pile in longs around this level, instead waiting for a clear break.
Read more at www.hilsdentrading.com
6713 support 6766 resisatnceLooking at a buy initially at around the 6713 area for a rise to 6766 today before more downside.
FTSE 100 – ‘Santa Rally’ likely if bulls defend 6700 levels todaA gap down open is more likely on account of the no vote win in the Italian referendum.
However, this was priced-in, so we could see a quick recovery. Currency markets have already recovered from the early Asian shake up.
The previous two daily candles have long talks…which suggest dip demand.
Overall, ‘Santa Rally’ could begin from this week in case the 7000 level remains intact today. Buyers could come-in above 6745 (23.6% Fib) levels.
On the downside, we need at least two daily closes below head and shoulder neckline support.
FTSE 100 short 6800 -> 6660Expecting futher decline on FTSE 100 from the current level.
Stop loss 6840
Targets 6760 - 6710 - 6660
FTSE 100 – Bulls need a break above 6900The descending trend line drawn from Oct 11 high and Nov 10 high currently stands at 6900. It needs to be breached if the bulls intend to push the index back to record highs above 7K levels.
However, Wednesday’s candle with long upper shadow suggests adds credence to the falling tops formation and opens doors for a drop to 6700 levels.
On the downside, only a daily close below 6700 (head and shoulder breakout) would suggest the index has topped out for medium-term.
FTSE 100: 6810 -> 6740Entering short is possible from 6850 resistance area or after hourly close below red trendline at S2 level 6800. The following support zones for the index are 6770 and 6740 (as described in 4H chart).
Once FTSE 100 falls below 6740, we'll have extra short potential down to 6660.
FTSE 100 awaits breakoutOn the daily chart, the head and shoulder neckline is seen at 6685 levels.
A rising bottom formation has been seen since November 9.
Still, the bulls are likely to remain on the sidelines so long as the descending trend line drawn from Oct 11 high and Nov 10 high is intact.
Meanwhile, the bears await a breach of the head and shoulder neckline.
FTSE100 – fakes bullish breakFTSE 100 index faded spike to 6880 and ended the day largely unchanged on the day at 6817.
The Wednesday’s candle is a Doji.
The retreat from 6880 also ensured the sideways channel on the hourly chart remained intact.
Once again, we await a convincing breakout. The daily MACD has turned positive and a back to back daily close above 6800 means the increased likelihood of the bullish break.
FTSE 100 - Eyes Head and Shoulder necklineFailure to take out 5-DMA, 10-DMA and 100-DMA for three straight sessions (including today) has opened doors for a drop to head and shoulder neckline seen around 6685 levels.
A daily close below 6685 today or during the rest of the week would signal long-term bullish trend reversal, given the pattern has developed at records highs.
On the higher side, only a daily close above 7K would open doors for a rally to record highs.
FTSE 100 - Rejected at 100-DMAThe index failed to sustain above 100-DMA level of 6801, which leaves the doors open for a drop to head and shoulder neckline of 6680.
A daily close below 6680 would signal a major trend reversal, given the pattern has appeared at record highs.
FTSE 100 – Head and Shoulder at record highs!Comments – The 4-hour chart shows head and shoulder with the neckline support of 6680. Watch out for a daily close below the same as it would signal trend reversal… given the pattern has been formed at record highs.
$UKX Daily Head & ShouldersDaily head and shoulders forming - expecting a rally to 6950 to form the right shoulder.
Short 6950 Stop (Over Head) 7135 Target 6200
TECHNICAL:
- Head and Shoulders (LS and Head formed)
- Rising Neckline
- Expecting a rally to 6950 in line with (LS)
- A rally to 6950 would also coincide with a 61.80% retracement of the Nov 4th low.
- Anticipate the 20MA moving under the 50MA
FUNDAMENTAL:
- Brexit x2, Brexit x5, Brexit x10, Brexit x50, Brexit x100, Brexit +++ - D. Trump
- Looking out for future data releases on the Economic Calendar to signal general weakness
- UK GDP, Retail Sales and Manufacturing are of particular interest
I am anticipating a long term sell-off in $UKX based on the above information.
Near term target 6700 (Neckline) However it is quite possible BOE could step in and loosen Monetary Policy further (cut rates/ quant. e) which would give UK stocks another boost. So it will be important to gauge the economic and fiscal picture.
FTSE 100 - The fifth wave on weekly basis. (UPDATE)Here it is my wave count on daily.
The weekly view:
Good luck!
FTSE 100 CashThis market is still in a technical uptrend although signs are beginning to emerge that we may be falling off, but the confirmation will come if the 6700 level is broken to the downside. In terms of indicators the RSI has moved into bearish territory but is producing a bullish failure swing. On the monthly timeframe the candlestick action is very bearish but despite this the daily chart is showing signs of exhaustion (which means we may see a retracement). In terms of fundamentals today we saw a court ruling that MP's will have a say on invoking article 50 before it is triggered which was bullish for GBP but bearish for large caps like GSK and mining names, this is due to their profits being denominated in USD. Importers like Dixons Charphone and companies that need a stong GBP i.e. Ryanair this was positive but these companies make up much less of the FTSE100.
R2 7098
R1 6940
Current 6809
S1 6780
S2 6704
S3 Downward internal trendline starting 15th Aug
FTSE 100 - Doors open for a slide to 23.6% FiboSupport
6809.5 (Sep 30 low)
6745 (23.6% of Feb low - Oct high + 100-DMA)
6654.5 (Sep 12 low)
Resistance
6900 (200-DMA)
6937.5 (Oct 17 low)
6955.3 (Aug 15 high)
Comments - Pair’s bearish close at 6854 coupled with RSI at 40… pointing lower suggests the doors have been opened for a further slide to 6745 (23.6% of Feb low - Oct high). A minor corrective due to Intraday oversold conditions cannot be ruled out. Upticks are likely to be met with fresh selling interest.
The BOE is likely to sound hawkish...something the market is expecting but is waiting for a confirmation. Consequently, the Pound may run higher across the board if BOE meets expectations and that could hurt the FTSE 100 index. Unless there is an explicit hint of another rate cut, the index is unlikely to see a major recovery.
FTSE100: We can enter shorts on a break of today's lowThe footsie had formed a 'time at mode' signal on the daily chart which has already hit the projected target. Since it only has one day left (Time at mode signals project a price target and a time duration for the possible rally), we can go short if we get a new daily low, with stops above today's high, tomorrow.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
FTSE 100 – Thursday’s rebound needs positive follow throughDespite Thursday’s rebound from 6924 levels, it is too early to call the index is heading to fresh record highs, given the daily close was below 7000 levels.
A positive follow through today with a daily close above 7K would signal a possible move to 7055-7100 levels.
On the other had hand, bears are waiting for a daily close below 6950 levels. In this case, 6800-6550 levels stands exposed.
FTSE100 – Needs to close above 7055 (Oct 14 high)Tuesday’s rebound from the rising trend line support followed by two-day winning streak and move to 7040 levels today suggests bulls have regained control, still the journey to fresh record highs needs a daily close above 7055 (Oct 14 high).
On the lower side, only a daily close today below 7000 levels would open doors for a re-test of rising trend line support seen sloping higher to 6975 by tomorrow.
On a larger scheme of things, only a daily close below 6975 would signal trend reversal.
