FTSE 100 Index
UKX Hourly - Higher high following successful bounce off supportHigher highs and higher lows are in place following a successful bounce off lateral support. Still favouring a long bias with a full target of 7050ish and SL of 6890. I am expecting some resistance around 6965 (NB NB) - I will be monitoring closely for any potential reversal. Through this crucial point, one can look to add to their longs, but a reversal here will see me swing to a short position. Updates to follow as we progress
VUKE Daily - trimmed back to u/weight waiting for better levelsI had used the green accumulation zone to add to my positions - after a successful run I have taken profit on the majority of holdings leaving me net underweight. I am hoping for a dip back to the red zone where I will look to start re-entering.
$UKX Hourly - Possible consolidation before final push higherMinor bearish RSI divergence has appeared on the hourly. Trend is still clearly up and full target of 6870 BUT momentum appears to be slowing. Taking some profit here on my longs and will look to add on a test of the green zone at 6780/6790.
FTSE 100 Edging Towards 7000The FTSE 100 has failed to break and close above the February 2018 low at 6536 for a number of months now.
You can see the December 2020 candle and the candles for January and February 2021 traded above this level
but ended the month by closing below this level.
With one more trading day of the month left to go, we may well finally see that close above 6536 and if this
is achieved then we should continue to see bullish moves in UK stocks.
Although the move up has been rather sluggish, price has gained good ground following the 22% decline we
experienced in February and March 2020 at the peak of the global pandemic. In March 2020 price continued
down and found support around the 5000 round number before moving back to the upside.
With a bullish end to this month’s candle, the next level of resistance is 7000 and following that we have
the all-time high at 7903, which is the May 2018 high. We will be able to get a better perspective of price
action once the candle for March closes and decide on which opportunities we want to take positions in.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
GBPUSD - More downside to go?!GBPUSD - Technical view: More downside to go?!
Technical View:
Support: 1.36830, 1.36050, 1.35310, 1.35000
Resistance:1.37930, 1.39515, 1.40455, 1.41570
Pattern: Wedge/Pennant - Broken to downside, Blue line measuring length.
Bears are in control if we get a break below support area of: 1.36570
Bulls are in control if we get a break above resistance area of: 1.38670 (200EMA Above)
Overall, we are currently in between ranges of: 1.36570 (S) - 1.37930 (R) break to either direction for further clarification perhaps a trade for next week to consider.
Keep in mind End of months flows & Keep an eye on Monthly closes.
Fundamental:
Overall, not much impact regarding calendar front apart from NFP on Friday next week. This week we had DXY rising and as majors decline! Finally broke out of the ranges we were in. We aren't seeing reflation trade this week. Market seeking a safe haven aspects.
- 3rd Wave in EU & USA - Rising calls for concerns
- Politics in US - Infrastructure spending 3trillions with be a high cost on cooperate tax rate heading higher
- April equities, usually best month of of the yr. (Seasonality)
- Commodity FX pairs - Weakening may continue as dollar strengthens
- UK Vaccination is going well. However Astra vaccine has been told to provide Europe further with the vaccinations
- First stages of the unlocking eases on Monday in UK - We've even got great weather for the week as well! 🌞
- NFP Next week - Great for scalp.
UK Reminder: Clocks go forward
Key tips: Don't try make your P&L on Friday - Trade what you see, not what you think!
Have a great weekend.
Trade Journal
(Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
$UKX Hourly - Backtesting channel break We are currently testing Friday's channel break. Good RR levels to go long for those who currently don't have a position. Nice gap at 6780 I would like to see filled, as well as the full target of the bull flag and inverse H&S of 6870. We have seen some month end selling during the previous few months which is something to keep an eye on and more reason to keep stops tighter. On the other hand, this month may be different given it is tax year end in the UK. Summary: Long with a tight stop
UKX Hourly - Bullish picture intact despite yesterday's wobble Bottom of the red lateral support held despite yesterday's brief wobble lower. In hindsight it was a great buying opp for those that missed the morning's bullish confirmation. Still looking for full target of 6870 - however not in a straight line
VUKE Daily - Breaking higher but testing NB lateral resistanceI started scaling back in and increasing my weighting around 29 (green box) in the hope we would get the break higher we seeing now. Yesterday we saw the VHYL ETF be the first to break higher and VUKE appears to be following suit. Red lateral resistance is quite significant and I wouldn't be too surprised to see the ETF pause a bit at this level, consolidate, before powering higher. I have been adding and trimming continuously to this position (see comments on prior chart). I am happy to take profit on 25% of my holding here (given the resistance), and will look to re-add
UKX Hourly - Bull flag targets 6870 Successful break and re-test of bull flag on the hourly chart. Higher lows in place, as well as a potential bullish inverse H&S building which will be confirmed with a close above 6700. A number of SL levels available depending on time frame and risk tolerance - index has been very volatile last few trading sessions. I will look to re-evaluate on an hourly close below 6590
UKX Hourly -Bearish engulfing BUT on triple support My natural bias would like to see the index pullback further here - as we have seen the 6600 level has been a magnate the past few trading sessions. The hourly bearish engulfing would support a short position, but we do have the index on a triple set of supports. I'm waiting on the sidelines hoping for better levels to buy into my ISAs and SIPPs
UKX Hourly - About to hit multiple resistance levelsWe had the beautiful bounce off 6480 lateral support as expected, and once again the 6600 level is acting as a magnate. Massive hourly candle, but about to hit a number of resistance levels, namely: prior channel support, 20SMA, lateral resistance. Risk reward looks decent and will be keeping trailing stop nice and tight