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Unemploymentrate

SPX vs. UnemploymentJust speculating here, but the goal of this comparison was to get an average in days from when unemployment starts to rise to the major historical bottoms of the S&P 500. After taking the total number of days from the 6 instances highlighted in the chart above we got an average of 427 days, which would put us roughly in August of 2023 for a potential bottom (Assuming we've bottomed in terms of unemployment and expect to rise over the next couple quarters). Barring any black swans, I'm interested to see how this plays out.
SP:SPX
by jtino011
GOLD NFP + Unemployment Rate1. If the Non-Farm Payrolls data remains above 200K and the unemployment rate remains below 3.7%, GOLD SELLS below | 1795 -1789 | 2. If Non-Farm Payrolls data remains UNDER 200K and Unemployment Rate ABOVE 3.7% BUY GOLD BUY | 1803 | + confirmations DXY BULL (2) / BEAR (1) ╔═╦╗╔╦╗╔═╦═╦╦╦╦╗╔═╗ ║╚╣║║║╚╣╚╣╔╣╔╣║╚╣═╣ ╠╗║╚╝║║╠╗║╚╣║║║║║═╣ ╚═╩══╩═╩═╩═╩╝╚╩═╩═╝
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tarsi_Fx
Unemployment Rate vs SPXI'm just the messenger. SPX - orange Unemployment Rate - Blue Indicator - Moving Average out of Unemployment Rate This isn't a rule, as many sectors influence the market, but big crashes have been paired with a growing Unemployment rate. Here we can see that it bottomed and is consolidating - which proofs a strong economy and no need to crash - this suggests the ongoing decline was just a correction. To visualize this a bit more - I have coded a simple moving average to see when that curve will start heading up - and for now it isn't even turning up - this allows the market to push up before it starts turning. But when it will ... Hold on to your seats lads and ladies. It's gonna be a fast ride. Cheers!
FRED:UNRATE
by TheSecretsOfTrading
The land down underAustralian unemplyment figures have been at absolute all time lows, even taking out the beginning of the end of the mining boom in the late 2000's. With the mining boom in western australia came the strong AUD rate which really hurt the east coast which attracts a lot of tourists. The strong AUD means mainly international tourists look to cheaper destinations. In 2022 we have seen a new boom in mining again in western australia. This new boom, along with all time low unemployment might be a good opportunity to purchase a bag of AUD and RioTinto stock and sit on it for a few years. This is not financial advise, so its not.
ECONOMICS:AUURLong
by BringTheFingerBack
NZD slides, employment report nextThe New Zealand dollar has reversed directions today and recorded sharp losses. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6285, down 0.75% on the day. Risk appetite has fallen, with US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's controversial trip to Taiwan sending risk appetite lower. The New Zealand dollar has followed the Aussie, which has plunged around 1.5% today. As well, NZD/USD is under pressure from NZD/JPY, which is down 1% today due to safe-haven flows to the Japanese yen. New Zealand releases the employment report for Q2 on Wednesday. The labour market has been solid but unspectacular - in each of the last two quarters, Employment Change climbed by a negligible 0.1%, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.2%. Employment Change is expected to rise to 0.4% and the unemployment rate is forecast to tick lower to 3.1%. With the markets expecting only a slight change in the second quarter, I don't expect the New Zealand dollar to react unless the forecasts are wide off the mark. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues to grapple with soaring inflation, which rose to 7.3% in Q2, up from 6.9% in Q1. The central bank has raised rates to 2.50%, but with inflation well above the inflation target of around 2%, rates will have to keep rising in order to reel in inflation. The RBNZ is also concerned about inflation expectations, which if left unchecked will strengthen inflation and exacerbate the Bank's efforts to curb inflation. Inflation Expectations accelerated for eight straight quarters and hit 3.29% in Q1, up from 3.27% and a 31-year high. We'll get a look at Inflation Expectations for Q2 next week, and if the current trend continues and the reading accelerates, it will put further pressure on the RBNZ to respond with a large rate hike at the August 17th meeting. NZD/USD is putting strong pressure on support at 0.6271. Below, there is support at 0.6213 There is resistance at 0.6350 and 0.6408
by OANDA
Euro teasingly flirts with parityFor those following the euro's close encounters with parity, the currency played a game of tease earlier today. In the European session, EUR/USD dropped to parity with the US dollar, a line of psychological importance. However, the euro would not budge any lower, and is currently at 1.0068 in the North American session, up 0.28% today. I would not be surprised if EUR/USD does break below parity in the coming days, for the first time in some twenty years. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment has been stuck in negative territory for months, indicative of strong pessimism about the economic outlook. The July release earlier today fell to -53.8, down sharply from -28.0 in June and missing the consensus of -38.3. The eurozone economy is grappling with soaring inflation and the war in Ukraine shows every indication of dragging on. The Nordstream 1 pipeline, the main channel for Russian oil to Germany, closed for maintenance on Monday and there are fears that Moscow could decide to keep the pipeline closed. This would prove a nightmarish scenario for Germany, with winter only a few months away. The US dollar stormed out of the gates on Monday, buoyed by a stronger than expected non-farm payroll report on Friday. The economy produced 372 thousand jobs in June, well above the estimate of 268 thousand and close to the May release of 384 thousand (revised from 390 thousand). The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% and wages rose by 0.3%, which means that the Fed has a clear path to move ahead with a second straight 75bp hike at the July meeting. The Fed is not taking any prisoners in its battle against inflation and is clearly willing to deliver 75bp salvos until inflation eases. It wasn't long ago that a 50bp hike was considered a massive move; now such an increase would barely raise an eyebrow. The US releases inflation on Wednesday, a key release that could move the US dollar. Headline CPI is expected to rise from 8.6% to 8.8%, and if inflation does move higher, it would likely cement a 75bp move from the Fed and send the dollar higher. Conversely, a surprise drop in inflation would raise hopes that inflation has peaked and the Fed might resort to a 50bp increase, sending the dollar lower. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0018 in the European session. Below, there is support at 0.9889  There is resistance at 1.0124 and 1.0242
by OANDA
Euro above parity by a threadIt is looking like July 2022 could be a memorable month for the euro, but unfortunately not for the right reasons. EUR/USD is within a whisker of dropping below parity with the US dollar for the first time since 2002 and the risk of a break below parity below in the coming days remains high. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.008, down 1.00%.  The euro, along with all the other majors, is seeing red against the US dollar today. The markets have reacted to the surprisingly strong non-farm payroll report on Friday, as the June gain of 381 thousand surpassed the May reading of 336 thousand and easily beat the consensus of 240 thousand. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6%, while wage growth grew by 0.3%. The solid employment report has raised expectations of another 75bp hike by the Fed at the end of July. A 75bp move will substantially widen the Europe/US rate differential, which is contributing to the euro's sharp descent today. The ECB holds its policy meeting six days ahead of the Federal Reserve, on July 21st. This meeting will likely mark the lift-off for ECB rate hikes, with another increase expected in September. The ECB has been scrambling to catch up to the inflation curve, as it badly misjudged the staying power of high inflation. ECB interest rates are in negative territory, and a modest 0.25% hike, the most likely scenario at the July meeting, may not do much to boost the euro, although perhaps the perception that the ECB is finally tightening will provide some support to the ailing currency. On Tuesday, Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment. The index has been mired in negative territory for months, indicative of strong pessimism about the economic outlook. In June, the index came in at -28.0 and this is expected to worsen to -40.0 in July. EUR/USD is putting strong pressure on support at 1.001, just above parity. Below, there is support at 0.9849 There is resistance at 1.0124 and 1.0221
by OANDA
Cdn. dollar rebounds after soft job dataThe Canadian dollar has started the week with strong gains, recovering after sharp losses at the end of the week. There are no Canadian tier-1 events on the calendar, so US numbers will have a magnified impact on the movement of the Canadian dollar. The US nonfarm payrolls outperformed in spectacular style, posting a gain of 467 thousand jobs in January. Many analysts had projected a negative print, and the consensus of 125 thousand showed that expectations were quite low. With inflation at 40-year highs, wage pressures are rising. Average hourly earnings climbed 5.7% in January y/y, as workers seek higher wages due to the rise in the cost of living. The strong NFP report will keep the pressure on the Fed not to ease up on the rate pedal after the (widely expected) March liftoff. It was a starkly different story north of the border, as the Canadian employment report for January was dismal. The economy shed 200.1 thousand jobs, after a gain of 78.6 thousand in November. The consensus stood at -117.5 thousand. The unemployment rate jumped from 6.0% to 6.5%, higher than the estimate of 6.2%. The weak Canadian jobs reports, coupled with a massive NFP which has raised expectations of more rate hikes, was a double-whammy that sent the Canadian dollar sharply lower on Friday. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem testified before a Senate banking committee in Ottawa last week, and his comments indicated that Macklem still views inflation as transitory, as he stated that the BoC expects inflation to ease in the second half of 2022. At the same time, Macklem was clear that additional interest rates are needed to lower inflation to the 2% target, with the number of hikes depending on economic developments. The BoC is widely expected to raise rates at its next meeting in early March, but similar to the Fed, there's lots of uncertainty about what happens after that. Macklem will speak on Wednesday and the markets will be looking for clues regarding future rate hikes. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2818 and 1.2873  1.2679 was tested in support earlier in the day. Below, there is support at 1.2595
by OANDA
Aussie steady ahead of retail salesThe Australian dollar is trading quietly at the start of the week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7172, down 0.14% on the day. December job numbers in the US were mixed. The nonfarm payrolls report was a major disappointment, with a gain of 199 thousand, compared to a forecast of 425 thousand. Despite the soft nonfarm payrolls reports, investors remain hawkish about a Fed rate hike and the major currencies posted gains against the US dollar on Friday. The mixed jobs report is unlikely to change the Fed's lift-off date for a rate hike, which will likely come in mid-2022, although the markets have priced in a March hike at above 70%. On the positive side, the US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 3.9% and wage growth climbed 4.7% y/y, above the estimate of 4.2%. As we saw with the JOLTS Jobs Openings release last week, there are jobs to be had, but the difficulty is finding workers to fill the vacancies. Australia starts the event ball rolling on Tuesday, with the release of Retail Sales for November. The consensus stands at 3.9%, after a gain of 4.9% in October. The circus over star tennis player Novak Djokovic and whether he can remain in Australia for the Australian Open has overshadowed the skyrocketing Covid numbers. Australia is reporting over 1 million infections, as businesses are grappling with staff shortages due to sickness or isolation rules. So far, the government has avoided new lockdowns, but if the infection rates continue to rise, lockdowns could be reimposed which would hamper economic activity. There is resistance at 0.7263 and 0.7343 AUD/USD has support at 0.7116 and 0.7049
by OANDA
2
Australian dollar stems bleedingAfter three losing sessions, the Australian dollar has steadied.  AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7305, up 0.17% on the day. In the Asian session, the Aussie dropped to 0.7277, its lowest level in a month. The Australian dollar didn't get any help from the October employment report, which was showed total employment declining and the unemployment rate rising. The economy shed 46.3 thousand jobs, marking a third straight decline. Unemployment rose to 5.2%, up sharply from 4.6%. The markets gave a thumb down to the news, sending the Australian dollar below the symbolic 0.73 level. It's hard to sugarcoat the dismal job numbers, but help may be on the way, with the lockdowns being lifted in Sydney and Melbourne. As the economy continues to re-open, we can expect employment data to improve. The RBA is carefully monitoring inflation levels, which have been on an upswing and could become a major headache for the central bank. Core CPI has broken above 2%, the RBA's lower limit of its inflation target. As well, the Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations for November surged to 4.6% y/y, the third straight month above the 4% level. If inflation and inflation expectations continue to climb, the RBA will find it difficult to convince the markets that inflation is transitory and may have to make a hawkish shift at its policy meeting in December. We continue to see a disconnect between RBA guidance and market expectations, but the central bank is starting to sound more hawkish. In its quarterly summary of the economy, the RBA acknowledged that inflation has risen into its 2-3% target band, a full two years earlier than anticipated.  Governor Lowe had insisted that rates would not rise before 2024, but in the summary, the bank said that a rate hike was possible in late 2023. Still, the markets remain much more hawkish and have priced in several rate hikes for 2022, with the cash rate projected to approach 1.0% by the end of next year. 0.7330 is a weak resistance line and could be tested during the day. 0.7506 is next There are support lines at 0.7254 and 0.7154
by OANDA
Will Japan Household Spending rebound?The Japanese yen is drifting in the Monday session. In North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 108.67, up 0.05%. The yen has posted four winning weeks out of the past five, as the US dollar continues to struggle. Still, the US/Japan rate differential continues to support USD/JPY, which remains in no man's land slightly below the 109 level. Japan will release Household Spending (GMT 23:30), and the consumer spending indicator is expected to rebound after two straight declines of 6.1% and 6.6%. The March release is projected to show a gain of 1.7%, which would mark a five-month gain. The market was gearing up for a blowout party from US nonfarm payrolls on Friday. In the end, however, the economy created just 266 thousand jobs, nowhere near the estimate of 990 thousand. There were expectations that NFP would break above the one-million mark, and some analysts even projected a reading above the two-million mark. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1%, up from 7.8%. Still, the news was not all bad, as wage growth rebounded with a strong gain of 0.7%, after a read of -0.1% beforehand. The US economy remains in good shape, and investors are unlikely to let a weak NFP report ruin optimism over the economy. The Fed has maintained a dovish stance, even with the economy posting strong numbers. The disappointing nonfarm payroll report appears to have justified the Fed's position, but investors will be keeping a close eye on this week's inflation numbers. A sharp rise in inflation could renew calls for the Fed to consider tapering. On the other hand, if the upcoming inflation numbers are weaker than expected, there will be less pressure on the Fed to change its accommodative policy. USD/JPY is facing resistance at 109.42. Above, there is resistance at 110.24. On the downside, there is support at 108.06 and 107.52
by OANDA
Why the unemployment number are Bullish...unemployment numbers were released earlier today they missed substantially from estimates of 978,000 jobs came in at 266,000 the big number here which surprised me is that manufacturing jobs dropped by 18,000 so that traction that we’ve seen over the past several months is one away completely. Let me address why I think the markets are doing better today. I believe there was a great fear that we are overheating in the economy and this shows that this is not happening one of the other things I want to mention here which is important is that my expectations that I discussed on the Livestream on YouTube on Wednesday were that we would have at least one or two more months of good employment numbers and then it would flatten off and the Fed would struggle to get things to move forward. So this is going to put a lot of pressure on states and federal government to get the country open and moving forward. This sets the tone for the possibility of more stimulus in a classic scenario of bad news is good news. Looking at the long-term employment chart this is important also to look at as the average between the high and low going back to 1949 is 6% so we are at 6.1 everybody was expecting this to drop down to 5.8 today so we are actually in the mean of were employment normally exist over time. So we tend to get a few points below 6% in a few points above and those periods of time are considered to be booms or recessionary periods depending on how much above or below these lines we are at. My expectations are now that we did get this bad report is the report for May when it comes out next month this is going to be important to keep a close watch on as if it does not down tech below 5.8 then this is likely to become a big issue with the Fed trying to stimulate the economy. I think will begin to see and hear more rhetoric from the treasury/Janet Yellen over the next several weeks if they are seeing numbers in the background that we can’t see that are concerning them. In summary, this is why I believe the markets are doing better today and will continue to do better as folks will be expecting to see some noise starting around possible new stimulus and other things that are likely to help push the new infrastructure bill through.
FRED:UNRATE
by KendallReport
1
New Zealand dollar tumbles, job data nextThe New Zealand dollar has posted strong gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7133, down 88% on the day. We continue to see significant volatility from the New Zealand dollar. The currency ended the week with sharp losses of 1.18%, as strong US data lifted the US dollar. NZD/USD started the week with strong gains, but these have been erased on Tuesday. Earlier in the day, the pair dropped to a low of 0.7115, its lowest level since April 14th. Investors are keeping an eye on the New Zealand employment report (22:45 GMT), which is released each quarter. Employment Change is expected to rise by 0.3% in Q1, down from 0.6% in the fourth quarter. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%. A gain in Employment Change would be impressive, given that the tourist season was a shambles without any tourists allowed into New Zealand. Unless the consensus is well off the mark, the upcoming employment numbers are unlikely to have much effect on the New Zealand dollar. The Federal Reserve remains committed to an accommodative policy, and this was reiterated at last week's FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Powell stated that it was premature to talk about tapering its QE program. On Monday, Powell noted that the economy was doing better but was "still not out of the woods" and that the recovery was marked by racial and education gaps. The Fed's stance is not uniform, and Fed Governor Robert Kaplan, a non-voting member, made headlines on Friday when he said that Fed needed to have a conversation about tapering. As well, the market does not appear convinced that tapering is a long way off, given the strong numbers we are seeing from the US economy. If Friday's nonfarm payroll print exceeds one million (the forecast stands at 975 thousand), the Fed may come under pressure to consider tapering sooner than it expected. NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.7113. This is followed by support at 0.7064. There is resistance at 0.7249 and 0.7336
by OANDA
US: Strong economic data lift stocks to record highsUS Non-farm Payrolls up 916K in March, unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% to 6%. The March Manufacturing PMI registered a record high 64.7 percent, and the March Services PMI registered at a 16-year record high 63.7 percent. As we mentioned before, the US economy in Q2 would be benefited by the Manufacturing and Services industry. MM Analysis US Non-farm Payrolls up 916K in March, unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% to 6%. In particular the education and health services up by 101k and the professional and business services up by 66k, showing that the vacinnation has helped the SMEs to recover. Construction ( + 110k ) and Manufacturing ( +53k ) industries has also backed strong support on the US economy recovery. The March Manufacturing PMI registered 64.7 percent, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the February reading of 60.8 percent. New orders 68 percent, Production 68.1 percent and Backlog of Orders 67.5 percent are in a fast growing direction. Customers’ Inventories 29.9% has been at historically low levels. Besides the above indexes, a low inventory-sale ratio on January shows that manufacturing cycle would continue due to the capital injection by the US government. The March Services PMI registered at a 16-year record high 63.7 percent, an increase of 8.4 percentage points from the February reading of 55.3 percent. Employment 57.2%, comments from respondents include: “Have recalled everyone put on waivers and made new hires” and “Additional employees added to service the need of new customers at new locations.” Showing a high probability for corporate to hire more and a optimistic outlook on the labor market, boosting consumer confidence and the US Q2 economy.
DJ:DJI
by MacroMicro_Global
UNRATE - Dangerous low levelsLow levels of unemployment normally mean that the economy is at its best and that all companies are fully hired and investors have been investing a lot to grow businesses. The danger is overinvesting and a very competitive environment which backslash in this euporic low levels of unemployment. These are well correlated to economies topping as the tipping point only means to fire people and turn into a downward trend again. Additionally the negative rates from the European Central Bank have sparked a lot of debate and there is no more further room for quantative easing if a economic collapse occurs. A recipe for distaster if you ask me, we will see it come around and most of the time act too late. There is no escape from it.
FRED:UNRATE
by TheTrex
12