Natural Gas Update: BreakoutNat Gas had an epic move to the upside today.
will the bullish momentum continue?
UNG
$UNG bottoming pattern monthly chartAMEX:UNG bottoming pattern monthly chart, needs to close above Dec.1 2020 low on a monthly basis to start a new uptrend.
BOIL LONG a 3x leverage Natural Gas ETF Natural Gas prices have finally reversed on the FOREX markets
after significant downtrends from a historical high.
BOIL on the hourly chart has reversed a two-week downtrend
and today has an increasing volume. Ir bounced off the lower
Fibonacci levels and is looking to revert to the mean. Price
was undervalued below the green fair value zone at the VWAP
+/- one standard deviation but is now heading back into it
from the buying pressure.
As a 3x leveraged ETF is prone to more volatility than the
unleveraged UNG counterpart. I will play this with a call
option contract expiring 3/31 striking $4.00 and expecting
at least a 50% return in the upcoming 8 trading days.
The risk here is that this is just a short pullback on the
downtrend but getting in early on a long and watching carefully
is the approach I have taken.
Natural Gas Short squeeze!Natural Gas had a bullish close today up over 4% despite weakening economic data.
We could be entering the next stage where Nat gas starts moving higher off these lows.
Clear Accumulation has been occurring and this move off the lows matches the seasonality period of Nat gas.
Natural Gas & Energy UpdateNatural Gas is on watch for a technical Breakout
We got a bullish daily close on Natural gas today.
Its the first time Nat gas has had 2 daily closes above the 50 day moving average since it started the nasty downtrend.
Natural gas trying to stabilize & reverse after steep downtrendNatural gas has been in a strong downtrend for the past year but finally sellers look exhausted and prices have stabilized. New lows failed to stick in the beginning of May which has led to a reversal higher.
Sets up for a decent risk-reward trade to the upside, but stops and time-frame is important.
Natural Gas Clear Support & Resistance Guide | Falling Wedge- AMEX:UNG AMEX:BOIL PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS Natural Gas clear falling Wedge
- Daily uptrend confirmed without much follow through at the moment
- bulls would like us to hold prior pivot lows and bonce off next week
Natural Gas Support and Resistance Guide | Price Outlook- AMEX:UNG AMEX:BOIL VANTAGE:NG Still trading within my falling wedge pattern is getting tight so likely breaking soon
- Bounced off of quadrupole support Friday
- couple of resistance level right above us may test the upper falling wedge resistance next week
Natural Gas Weekly Price Outlook | Support & Resistance Guide |- Natural Gas falling wedge is my support and resistance guide
- Currently Daily & 4h Neutral trend
- 2 key support below and 2 key resistances above.
BULL FLAG! (4HR / 8HR)Natural Gas forming a BULL FLAG with a nice bounce off new support. Near term bullish.
Natural Gas Detail Trading Plan |Long term| Support & Resistance- AMEX:NG AMEX:UNG AMEX:BOIL : if i were to add today, I laid out a detailed game plan in the video of how to trade it with SL and target.
- 4 hour currently in neutral trend
- potentially shaping up daily higher low and trend change to uptrend need to break above prior high
- still trading within the equilibrium range likely breaking in early May
$UNG ready for correction? for the next few weeks I believe we will have at least a bounce from this area
volume is increasing in the last month
we are below the 2020 lows and all this price action can be a false breakout from that area(only a guess)
remember: I am treating it as a long term trade
Natural Gas Future Outlook Weekly /Daily S&R Technical Analysis - AMEX:NG Finally got a 4 hour uptrend need more follow through tomorrow to confirm
- likely heading to $2.5 if 4 hour uptrend confirm follow through tomorrow
- tradeable ticker AMEX:UNG and AMEX:BOIL still use the NG chart if you are trading natural gas.
NATURALGAS Long Natural gas is packed in a tight falling wedge pattern. It is at historic support too, going back to August of 2019. Another point worth mentioning is that the price of natural gas defended this support on February 22nd of this year and produced a >40% rally, peaking on March 3rd. Virtually every timescale from the minutes to the weekly show positive divergences and oversold readings. The targets for this trade are the gaps above, marked in purple. Use UNG or BOIL (x2) for this trade.
Natural gas is on the verge of a move The Natgas bottom looks very close. It looks to be forming a broadening bottom. A marginal new high, a small pullback , then take off.
Natural Gas Weekly Bear Flag potential but still holding Support- AMEX:NG AMEX:UNG AMEX:BOIL needs that 4 hours trend change otherwise even the big moves will essentially just fade
- still a potential weekly bear flag
- but still holding bottom wedge support and also double bottom on daily.
Natural gas - bottom callers will be dead before risingMajority of traders are loading up on their AMEX:BOIL longs and natural gas futures long positions.
This is why SSL will be grabbed first between $1.5 to $1.7 before price can increase.
Natural gas - bottom is not in yetIf you see the majority of traders saying that the bottom for natural gas is in, then you should be sure that it isn't.
I predict that natural gas will take out these equal lows at 1.91 and we will see 1.784 soon.
The uptrend will start when no one will be talking about it.
Unfortunately, the majority of traders are in long positions and due to market liquidity, these traders need to be taken out before the market makers and institutions will buy it up again.
Natural Gas Long Term Outlook | Importance of 4H Trend change | - AMEX:NG AMEX:UNG AMEX:BOIL cant stress enough we need to change trends, even if it is a very big move it will just fade if no trends are changed
- need to change the 4h and daily trend to the bulls
- likely tightening up in a equilibrium into May, still holding the teal support line.
XNGUSD ready to reverse recent downtrend LONGOn the daily chart here XNGUSD had a head and shoulders or double top last summer and fall
and has now trended down to support. I see this as a prime place to take a long position.
The decline of the overvalued USD contributes to this idea as does the persistent demand in Europe
for compressed / liquid NG and the ongoing war there that could eventually grind into WWIII.
ETFs such as BOIL , UNG and UNL may be a good way to make this trade if not in the forex market.
Natural Gas crash?Natural gas has crashed when comparing it to the DBC commodity ETF.
If a recession takes hold, demand destruction always prevails and it looks like Nat gas is pricing this in.
This price action could be a leading indicator that many other commodities may be vulnerable to a pullback.
Since Natural Gas is one of the smaller components of this ETF, it can see a large influx of capital that has to stay long by rotating out of other overbought commodities. Natural gas has broken out before the DBC and it has bottomed before the DBC. Nat Gas has the largest divergence from its peers.
Natural Gas: Commodity DivergencesThe correlation between DBC (orange line) and Nat Gas is strong.
However, Nat Gas gas does have price history where it diverges, leads & lags the average DBC price action. The white arrows on the screen display the periods where Nat Gas And DBC (in orange) diverge. Some of the divergences have lead to steep pops & drops of mean reversion.
What were seeing now is a massive divergence of about -33%, Nat gas has crashed and is the number one underperforming commodity in this basket.
Nat gas has retraced back to the Pre Covid low levels. Looking at the DBC ETF its about 33% off the Pre Covid Lows.
Over history the correlation usually tightens up and it has a long way to go to close the gap divergence. This presents one of 3 scenarios..
1. Other commodities in the basket collapse
2. Natural Gas Rallies
3. Both options (Our Base Case)
