$NATURAL GAS $UNG Biden Military OrdersBiden administration is writing up military orders for units to be sent to eastern europe - cnn just now
natty $4 well in play
UNG
Gaslights OutIn the beginning, of the year, it was time to buy for the Summer.
Now, Summer is here and here we are.
Price has overshot and with plenty of gas in storage, it's time for me to short the Summer contract here.
Short August(Q)
Long NG Equities
Closed: UNG January 21st 14C/17P Inverted Short Strangle... for a 4.86 debit.
Comments: I collected a total of 5.44 in credits for this setup. (See Post Below). It started out as a 17 short straddle, after which I rolled the 17 short call down defensively to cut net delta, resulting in an inverted strangle (i.e., short call below the short put). Closed it out here for a small winner on this up move; 5.44 - 4.86 = .58 ($58).
UNG (Natural Gas ETF) - 2021 - Support, Resistance, TrendlinesUNG (United States Natural Gas Fund) - 2021 - Support, Resistance, Trendlines:
-Resistance Price Levels (colored horizontal lines above current price)
-Support Price Levels (colored horizontal lines below current price)
-Trendline Resistances (diagonal grey lines above current price)
-Trendline Supports (diagonal grey lines below current price)
note: chart is on log scale.
Rolling: UNG January 21st 17 Short Call to 14 Short Call... for a .42/contract credit.
Comments: Rolling down the short call of my UNG straddle to reduce net delta directionality and improve my break evens. The resulting setup is a 3-wide inverted 14C/17P for which I've collected a total of 5.44 in credits -- 5.02 for the original short straddle (See Post Below) -- plus an additional .42 here. This also cuts net delta about in half, with the 17 short put clocking in at around 79 delta and the 14 short call around -39. The setup remains net delta long (40.81), leaving room for a potential bounce should that occur. A "perfect finish" for an inverted setup is basically the mid point between the inverted strikes -- in this case, 15.50. I will probably money/take/run if the opportunity presents itself, since there is seasonality with UNG, and I'd rather not roll this out for duration as I would with just about everything else since seasonality favors lower post-winter.
My original price target was a 3.76 debit to close (25% of max profit), so I'm revising that to 3.76 plus .42 or 4.18.
Natural Gas - The "Energy Crisis" is OverIdea for Natural Gas:
- I expect that the "Energy Crisis" is largely over globally, and the speculative excesses will deflate with risk off deleveraging into 2022.
- Already had called this reversal in energy:
A wicked weekly wick to stop this advance by none other than Putin:
GLHF
- DPT
Opening (Margin): UNG January 21st 17 Short Straddle... for a 5.02 credit.
Comments: High IVR/high IV here. I looked at various ways to get around the awful call side skew and decided to just short straddle it. Break evens at 11.98 and 22.02 with delta/theta at -16.85/4.32. Will look to take profit at 25% max.
I'm indicating that it's "short" because of the net delta metric, but it can wander around anywhere between 11.98 and 22.02 and still be profitable.
NEW POSITION $UNG looking for 19.34 fro 16.78% (NatGas)NEW POSITION $UNG looking for 19.34 fro 16.78%
Started a 1% position here… Looking to either sell at 19.34
Or Double my position at 14.50
Let’s go, NatGas traders…
——————
I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
(\_/)
( •_•)
/ >🚀
𝗡𝗮𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $NG_F Daily. H&S into NovemberFirst week of November has been the short past two years. Have been patiently watching this one and can see a H&S setting up. Major down TL on monthly ~6.5 otherwise large breakout
$UNG $BOIL $KOLD #NatGas #OOTT #Commodities #Trading
$UNG - Key Levels and Analysis$UNG - Key Levels and Analysis
Would love to get one more good natty swing…
Sell target 21.28
Or
Double target 15.72
——————
I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your due diligence.
If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can.
Have fun, y’all!!
LONG $UNG target 25-27Natural gas broke new 52 week high. There's an ongoing energy crisis across Europe and the USA. Weekly time frame is a double bottom.
My JB 8OC WEEKLY on UNG Nat Gas ETFThank you to those who have responded so kindly and favorably to my postings on the JB 80C indicator that I developed (quite some time ago). The JB 8OC indicator is based on a simple but powerful concept. Specifically, in bull markets no matter what the timeframe, closing prices of a given time bar tend to be higher than opening prices. In a bear market closing prices tend to be lower than opening prices. It's a simple supply and demand relationship. The JB 8OC algorithm takes this relationship into consideration, constructing an indicator to assess the relationship mathematically and visually. As in the case of many indicators, and in fact most indicators, there will be some choppiness but we can eliminate much of that choppiness by adding to the methodology a trigger which will filter out a good percentage of erratic trades. I will show a trigger in later posts if people have an interest in them. If so let me know. Now with regard to timeframe I realize that most traders want to trade very short-term time frames and I have no issue with that but my days of ultra short-term trading are over. I would rather work smart and take my time for bigger moves than work hard for smaller moves. Of course, it's a personal preference. The good news about this indicator is that it's adaptable to all time frames but remember- the bigger the timeframe the more stable the result. Best of trading. Jake RBT (rules based trader)
UNG looking more like a cryptoNatty gas has been the gift that keeps on giving. Yet another leg up on the daily has formed. This is a moon shot in gas terms.
𝗡𝗮𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $NG_F Weekly. Breakout ... If closes over ~4.93 resistance we'll have a breakout that suggests it'll run to 6.10-6.30 area. Has peaked first week of November the past two years
$UNG $BOIL $KOLD #NatGas #OOTT #Commodities #Trading
𝗡𝗮𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $NG_F Daily. Seasonal Top? Interesting look where bearish divergence could imply we peak seasonally a month earlier than the previous 2 years 🤔
$UNG $BOIL $KOLD #NatGas #OOTT #Commodities #Trading
$KOLD LET’S GO $KOLD LET’S GO
I mean it this time. Nat Gas can't hold over 4 for that long? 😬 right?
I've been waiting for this pullback!!UNG has been on a bit of a tear. I think the recent run in Natural Gas has had less to do with inflationary pressures and more to do with increased US output and decreased reserves. We've broken a major resistance level and we are currently in pullback mode but I am expecting one more push to the blue line (which I think corresponds to $4 on the exchange). After that I expect a big pullback so switching to shorts I think would be prudent given natural gases normal "tendencies."
KOLD Should get Interesting in Septembr/OctoberNat-gas prices should get interesting in a few months. Do we get another giant price wave or do we finally see Nat-gas push through to a high price and stabilize for once?
Natural Gas Falling Wedge Short Term & Medium Term Bearish
Long Term Bullish after completion of last leg down of this Falling Wedge
I expect we’re at our Top (3.8-3.95) then we start rolling back all the way to the bottom. Then the next and 4th move upwards should break easily 6$
Booya!! Inflation saves the dayInreased costs (driven by a lot of factors) continues to inflate commodity prices. Natural Gas has been a real garbage dump recently but this morning made a very bullish move. I have now completed what I expect the channel to look like but going forward a pull back should be waited for before buying in.
Bearish below 3.03, bullish above 3.04Nat gas futures double top on 4 hour, Bearish below 3.03, bullish above 3.04. There are no hurricanes in the gulf or any other nat gas disruptions. Look for short below 3.03 here.
