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NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas testing support before moving higherFundamentals remain bullish. NG Natural gas futures are getting ready for December roll. November contract made a rally up to $3.1 on Wednesday and now is testing support at $2.97 - $2.95 level. A three dollar price level needs some digestion. To break above $3.2 December price will require support from colder weather forecasts and higher LNGs. Rise in seasonal demand is confirmed by weather forecasts for the second half of November and into December - January. Last week in October forecast has now turned colder predicting high national demand for the next week (NatGasWeather). Supply/demand balance is tightening. LNGs are at 8-8.5 bcf/d with expectations to increase to 10 bcf/d within the next a couple of weeks. Technicals are pointing toward a pullback before the roll begins and prices move higher. Currently, support for November contract is seen at $2.97-$2.95 level. Even if lower prices are seen on Friday, the dip may represent a buying opportunity before the roll.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by tradexchart
NATURAL GAS EXPLOSIVE ACCUMULATIONNatural gas has been under pressure for quite some time. As a whole, the energy sector has been beaten down severely and is historically cheap. I do not believe this will last. We can certainly have another big drop and even take out March lows but I wouldn't count on it. There are some BIG BIG BIG changes heading our way and we will look back on these days and regret not paying closer attention to energy.. Look at what's cheap.. look at what's expensive. BTW, we're at a critical junction here. There's a 3x hidden bear divergence that has been respected on weekly timeframe. I think this could push price lower. I sure hope so. But big picture is wildly explosive. here's a chart on XLE to XLK (energy compared to tech). What do you think is the better deal?
OANDA:NATGASUSD
by gghsusa
2
Holiday GasNatural Gas continues to show a build up of bullish price action. Linked below is a previous analysis on the winter contracts showing the target hit DEAD on. Being that winter is not here yet, it's very possible this pattern continues to play out to the upside. First. The most recent weather outlook now points to December being the coldest month which means the January contract is in focus. On the daily chart the price action continues to knock on the ceiling of resistance with several key indicators all flashing bullish signals. 1. Support at the 50 EMA 2. RSI breakout 3. MACD above zero with room to run Targets. The fibbonaci extensions map out objective targets. A big enough cold blast could easily send prices to the $4.20 level by Christmas. Which happens to line up almost perfectly with a macro fibonacci retracement from the 2018 highs to the 2020 lows. Are you bullish yet? Taking a step back looking at the weekly chart it looks even more bullish bouncing off both EMAs. My buy signal will be a break above the top of this weekly candle at 3.435 with a stop below last weeks candle. Trading is risky and should not be attempted by anyone.
FX:NGASLong
by lynaldendips
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Upside Potential vs. Bearish WeatherNatural gas NG is getting ready to roll into higher priced December contract, Oct 25-29. The upside potential on a roll is $3.2 price level vs. current $2.8. However, weather forecast is bearish for the rest of the week and into early November. LNGs are higher at 8 bcf/d, but Cameron facility and Sabine pass are still blocked and expected to stay that way for the next a couple of weeks. NGI predicts trough in demand later this week. NatGasWeather predicts low national demand Tue -Fri on warming in high consumption areas. November contract may dip toward expiration. Technical Indicators: MACD chart has formed a double bottom pointing to higher prices. RSI has potential for a move higher, but may also form an island top with a dip lower before going higher, should traders react negatively to bearish weather forecast for end of October - beginning of November. The Volume bars on a price chart (see circle on top chart) showed limited buying at $2.8 level. Support for November contract is seen at around $2.7 level. Some analysts see support at $2.595 - $2.572 levels, should weather models lose TDDs later in October. Higher prices on Monday afternoon were supported by cold shot over Plains and Rockies and trader optimism.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
Spooky GasTime to start looking for another spooky Halloween trade as the latter half of October brings in cold temps. Prices are now sitting near historically supportive levels and bullishly above the 200 week EMA, with the 50 curling up. A closer look at the 4hr chart shows prices are coiling up with the RSI in buying territory. Buying here. Targets 2.8 to 3.08 Longer term we can also see the Winter contracts are consolidating at the 50% retracement and the next targets would be the 61.8% and possibly the 78% level. Remember, December has been a "warmer than normal" month the last couple years so if this repeats there should be a nice pullback to take advantage of next month.
FX:NGASLong
by lynaldendips
NG, not Coal. Thanks!The big question is what is going on with Nat Gas this year??? The December(Z) contract is still coiling up in a wedge pattern and about to reveal the answer. A closer look at the bullish scenario... It's looking technically hopeful with the 200 Week EMA, $3.00 level, and the bottom of the wedge all lining up. Now the bearish scenario... The RSI could actually be showing that the strength of this trend is toast and it's possible the MACD is over-extended. It would be a good idea to keep a close watch for the whole thing to fall apart, just as bulls are piling in for an anticipated leg up. As of now I'll be looking to buy December(Z) again around $3.00 if a bounce is confirmed and it remains within the wedge pattern.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by lynaldendips
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Chart Forming a Top?Bullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September. Bearish factors: Production is steady at about 92 bcf/day, while consumption has been declining to 83 bcf/day lately on cooling temperatures. Two tropical storms, Marco and Laura, are not expected to produce substantial disruption to natural gas production, but may produce loss in demand due to cooling temperatures and power outages. Technical analysis: Divergence between price and volume is pointing toward a potential top. On a daily chart , RSI is above 70, approaching overbought territory. We have an unclosed gap at $2.77 level, which may be the next top. National demand is expected to be cooling going into September. Overall demand will be driven largely by LNG exports, which are expected to remain steady at around 5 bcf/day, 10-20% below levels seen in the fall of 2019. The forward curve seems to be pricing in a more robust recovery in demand than actually observed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
NG: UNG: BOIL: Natural Gas Chart is Forming a TopBullish factors: NG Natural gas price has been rallying for the past month reaching $2.5 level on increased consumption during summer months, improving LNG flows reaching 5.1 bcf/d in mid-August, and two tropical storms in the Gulf area threatening natural gas production. The fundamentals remain bullish going into mid September. Bearish factors: Production is steady at about 92 bcf/day, while consumption has been declining to 83 bcf/day lately on cooling temperatures. Two tropical storms, Marco and Laura, are not expected to produce substantial disruption to natural gas production, but may produce loss in demand due to cooling temperatures and power outages. Technical analysis: Divergence between price and volume is pointing toward a potential top. On a daily chart, RSI is above 70, approaching overbought territory. We have an unclosed gap at $2.77 level, which may be the next top. National demand is expected to be cooling going into September. Overall demand will be driven largely by LNG exports, which are expected to remain steady at around 5 bcf/day, 10-20% below levels seen in the fall of 2019. The forward curve seems to be pricing in a more robust recovery in demand than actually observed.
NYMEX:NG1!
by tradexchart
Yeah, its an unfortunate confluence nowAn overhead resistance and a tweaked channel have colluded to make a an area that looks like a strong short for natural gas. The bars have changed colour and I think it could be a nice short play. I have not year decided how far this will go, please remember I have previously stated we are possibly in a bear flag. Also, don't misunderstand - I am bullish on natural gas long term, but since its breakout from its huge decline it could be time for a breather!
AMEX:UNGShort
by DanjaZown
2
The Natural Gas Bull Market May Have BegunUNG had a spectatcular move the other day (once again I was on the wrong side of the trade but I the ship has been corrected). Rather than buying shorts after a rise in UNG, it appears like a bull market is starting so dips must be bought. The massive descending triangle going back to 2017 seems to have been broken with an open and close on the daily charts. Worringly though there appears to be a small bear flag on this breakout, so don't get disheartened. So long as we stay above the maroon line we should be all right.
AMEX:UNGLong
by DanjaZown
4
Natural Gas - Winter ContractsWinter contracts for Natural Gas are already trading near the pivotal $3.00 level. If Winter this year turns out to be average prices will likely sell off towards $2.50 (the 200 Day EMA). However, if production continues to fall and Winter is cold enough, prices can break above $3.00 and complete the parabolic move that is forming. If the latter happens, I see prices for December(Z) contracts topping out around $3.10 - $3.30 February(F) I see topping out around $3.40 - $3.60 I'm looking for a buying opportunity on the December contract and praying for a cold November to sell it in.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by lynaldendips