Get started

UNG

Shorting UGAZ - The Dangers and controlling the risk, Part 3This is a supplemental chart to the following post: Part 3 - How to Protect - Cover the Position ngetf.com This article is a continuation of a series where I've been exploring options to improve upon the idea of shorting UGAZ. Rather than just short the ETF alone and protect against a move backward, I am looking for a way to cover the short position by taking on a spread instead. The chart included isn't much for details this time. Most of my results are shared in Google Sheets. These documents can be found in the article linked above. The previous articles can be found at NGETF.com/notes. Thanks, and I hope you find some of this data useful Oldinvestor
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by oldinvestor
THE WEEK AHEAD: ULTA EARNINGS; APA, UNG, VIXEARNINGS: Earnings are light in the coming week, with ULTA (90/47) being the best candidate metrically for a earnings-related volatility contraction play, although its liquidity isn't great. Pictured here is a 205/210/265/270 iron condor in the January cycle that is paying 2.06 at the mid (1.03 at 50% max). Markets, however, are showing wide here. SINGLE NAME WITH EARNINGS IN THE REAR VIEW: APA (100/71) CGC (75/89) NTNX (66/43) X (52/27) See APA, CGC posts below. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: UNG (51/54) USO (37/37) TLT (34/12) XLE (26/19) FXI (23/20) XOP (23/34) First expiries in which at-the-money short straddle pays >10% of the value of the underlying: UNG: January, 2.84 versus 17.83 (15.9%) USO: April, 1.84 versus 11.62 (15.8%) TLT: January of '21, 14.78 versus 140.42 (10.5%) XLE: June, 7.20 versus 58.89 (12.2%) FXI: May, 4.18 versus 40.94 (10.2%) XOP: January, 2.06 versus 20.36 (10.1%) Already up to my nipples in oil and gas plays, so may consider a small FXI position. Naturally, May is a bit farther out in time than I'd like -- the 36/46 short strangle camped out around the 16 delta is paying 1.06 there. BROAD MARKET: QQQ (4/15) IWM (4/15) SPY (4/12) First expiries in which at-the-money short straddle pays >10% of the value of the underlying: QQQ: June, 21.71 versus 205.10 (10.6%) IWM: June, 16.34 versus 161.77 (10.1%) SPY: Sept, 34.63 versus 314.31 (11.0%) QQQ June 181/226 20 delta short strangle, 6.48 credit (1.62 at 25% max; 3.24 at 50% max) IWM June 143/180 20 delta put/16 delta call* short strangle, 4.33 credit (1.08 at 25% max; 2.17 at 50% max) SPY September 274/345 20 delta short strangle, 10.70 credit (2.68 at 25% max; 5.35 at 50% max). * -- Strikes on the call side are 5-wide at the moment, with the 180 at the 16, the 175 at the 25. FUTURES: /6B (63/14) /NG (51/90) /ZF (39/3) /CL (37/39) /ZN (37/4) OVX popped big on Friday, so I will look to add short premium setups in /CL if that nearly 37 print hangs in there over the next couple of sessions. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: With /VX futures contracts trading at 16.39, 17.65, and 17.86 in January, February, and March, respectively. VIX term structure trades remain viable for those expiries. For everything else, wait for a pop in VIX -- which finished Friday's session at 12.62 ... .
NASDAQ:ULTA
by NaughtyPines
UNG (natural gas ETF) 16% up 24% down... My intention was to analyze the NG exchange rate. Even so, I still chose his ETF. The fractal motion is much more visible in this. That is why I would like to present this. It is clear from the movement of the exchange rate that Friday's big fall (7%) was an expected process. The figure clearly shows that a fractal sequence has been completed. It is also clear that the original fractal is copied in a 2: 1 ratio. This copy has been slow for a month now. Therefore, I assume that further movement follows similar regularity. This means that NG and its ETF will turn north in the coming days. The ETF may increase by 16%. But from that level, another decline may begin. Nearly 24%. I am expecting the bottom of the ETF to be 15.44 usd. Then the most interesting thing happens. I assume that NG can start an amazing rise after 14 years. I also recommend this for a longer term investment.
AMEX:UNG
by meszaros
13
Commercials are heavy long NGI was wrong on my last idea, NG went on and dropped lower. Trend remains down until we see a close above 2.33 then 2.48. Commercials are heavy long at levels not seen since 2016. Seasonality is bullish from now to Nov-Dec. we just need to see a sustainable rally to bolster the idea of a bottom for the year. **If you're interested in joining a group of like-minded traders, send me a PM. This is NOT a subscription service, just bunch of average traders sharing insights in a FREE group
NYMEX:NG1!
by D707
$NG1! Showing A Similar Trading Pattern As Last Year$NG1! prices have been depressed for so long, that the only play this year has been short. As we look ahead to the upcoming winter season, we usually get a strong rally as traders buy the rumor or fear of a harsh winter. Once reality sets in and winter arrives, prices usually sell off. There's an opportunity for traders to get in and play the fall rally. Traders need to keep an eye on the 200 day moving average of 2.760 in front month nat gas contracts. Above there, and we have a trend change and algo funds will pile in. It's important to monitor weekly inventory reports every Thursday. Another way to play is with small producers like our recommendation in $CRK. As always, use protective stops and trade with caution. Good luck to all!
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by OptionsGains