Natural Gas "Historical Evidence discovered"Yep. The title says it all. I have found evidence to support what I believe is future upward price movement over the next 2 months. After many many hours of exhaustive research, I can say with 100% certainty, backed up by years and years of historical data that......IT GETS COLD IN THE WINTER! Just some light humor.
So I have two price targets for this upward move. This is not to be confused with what I think is going to happen by February (a much higher high at least $4.10), I'm talking short term...2 weeks from now before a decent pullback. The first is for Natural gas to reach the 100% measured move of "W" at $3.30, which happened in the beginning of November. There is a pretty good resistance level there as well. The 2nd price target, which is what I am hoping for and which makes a little more sense to me, is the 100% measured move of the first part of this current "Y" wave that began last week. That is the FIB that is colored purple. There is a gap to be filled there AND, a 50% typical correction for this WXY wave move would bring it down to retest the trend line and also stay within the yellow path.
As far as how this would equate to UGAZ prices.....I really don't know yet. I watch the NG chart to get an idea of when we are close to a trend change for UGAZ. I will be watching the structure on the daily to try to figure out where we are in the wave count and weather or not we are close to a warm weather reversal. GL
UNG
NGAS Short Entry PlanI'm looking to short Natty Gas soon and need to see just a few more things before I'm satisfied.
We formed a high-test on the monthly with May's close and that's awesome confirmation of the large weekly head and shoulder pattern. I'm now watching for a head and shoulder pattern on the daily and a pullback to the fibs for the right shoulder. That is where I'll look to enter.
The dirty deets:
Watching for a bounce off of the 200ema between now and friday to send price back up to the fibs and right shoulder area.
I'm looking to enter in that area (drew ideal position setup) with around a 5:1 reward:risk ratio to Target #1.
Target #1 sits at the key weekly November '16 low with Target #2 way down at the major March 16' low. It won't take too much effort to get to the first target, but the second target is going to take a bit more oomph. Just need to wait and see what price action develops once we reach that area to determine the probability of hitting that second target.
For more in depth analysis and my price action based theory behind the trade checkout: patstrades.com
NATTY possible abcde correctionJust a quick observation here. This looks like a corrective structure. I'd LOVE to see the top part of trend line hit, BUT high volume was unable to break the "bigger tend line top" so maybe the fall starts now?
I still think "natty" has one more leg down before a major buy.
Natty - Don't fish.There is zero reason to bottom fish here yet. This is where patience on a long entry will save you a lot of headaches. There is still no clear divergence (RSI & MACD) indicating that this "could" be the bottom.
As you can see, the "rally" we had this morning is all gone, suggesting another leg lower. I've updated the natty chart with a clearer channel. I'm waiting on better signals for an entry.
Natural Gas. Looking it over. How it looks to me.Natural gas is such a great clean source of energy. A favorite for homes. Likely someday will power cars as well. Hard to believe longer term it will not become more expensive. But currently clearly in a shorter term downtrend (down about 5% today so far).
Looking at the daily chart it looks like we have already had a 5 wave up move and are now are in a abc correction. IFFFFFF correct when the correction is over I would expect at least one more 5 wave up. The colored target box seems is where I think the correction may well stop. Will be watching for positive candles or down trend line break.
Hope this will be helpful. Take care. Have a good week.
NG1! - 2hrStrong reaction out of the support box (see prior idea) may indicate wave cir-ii is complete. Stop at last low. Initial target is resistance in wave (i). Hold a corrective pull-back for (ii) and this could fly in wave (iii) of cir-iii of 3.
Green fibs are updated, matching the minute waves. White fibs are measured off of the presumed 1-2.