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UNG

NatGas - No Moon Until DoomIn mid June, I had made a call that Natural Gas was about to rally, because price action and timing supported a move upwards. Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember Her But that call became abandoned as I enlightened and improved further, and began to note that rallies were sold off and lows kept being taken. The trade degenerated into looking at a sweep over $3 and then a sweep over $2.9, and turned into abandonment. Before we go far, I want to tell you that you need to keep your eyes on the situation with China. The first thing you notice is that the propaganda machine and politicians are rarely going after "the Chinese Communist Party" but are always going after "China." This is very strange. China is the world's only 5,000 year country and holds the largest population. If you think about it even a little bit, the CCP would be so easy to topple, wouldn't it? Considering the Party has killed a magnitude more of its own people in its century of murder than Hitler did among all races during his years of insanity. And the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin have the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against the Falun Dafa spiritual practice hanging over their head like the blade of a guillotine. You have to keep this in mind and go study it. A really crucial part of the puzzle is that Xi Jinping, for all the criticism and targeting he gets/deserves, has never persecuted Falun Gong. Instead, Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign has been killing and ruining the Jiang Faction minions who have conducted and operated the persecution. Xi has even protected Falun Gong in Hong Kong after fortifying his rule there with the National Security Law following the 2019 Heaven Will Eliminate the CCP protests. All of this matters very much to the fossil fuels industry because there's a relationship between China and Russia, both in terms of production and demand, that changes greatly if something like the Ukraine War ends or drama over Taiwan suddenly enters nuclear brinkmanship. Looking at current monthly bars, Natural Gas shows some kind of "Bear Flag." What you're seeing, really, is an extended consolidation. This is actually potentially really bullish, to the upside, but we need price action to confirm it's time to go. Unfortunately, July did not show us this. The sweep of the $2 point and the lows in April was not enough to springboard the move, and that's really telling. While many may tell you that natural gas is obviously going to a zero-handle, a look at the yearly bars shows such a thesis really does not make sense. To the contrary, the 2020 pivot should, actually, hold. A classic super long term breakout and retrace. Moreover, $10 was printed for literally one day in 2022, and that's very strange. The problem with the moon turning full right now, is shown on 3 month candles, where this current little red blip only has one month left. This is not a bullish continuation. It's important, in a bullish scenario, to see volume come in and price action to correspondingly reflect that producers want to sell at higher prices and will orca the waves for us normal people. Moreover, in terms of the overall markets, as I post in this week's SPX call, we may be watching the equities/indexes bear market rally top for real. SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg As for what might be the news driver that harbingers the correction, it may very well be one of the 10 largest banks in America dumping for whatever reason emerges (watch out for commercial real estate): Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis? I also posted last week that it seems to me oil is about to head for a literal 3-handle. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins And because we have problems with "Taiwan," which is to say the International Rules Based Order's desire to take over China via Taiwan while the Chinese Communist Party falls, I also believe that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is set up as a probable long hedge through to the end of the year and into 2024: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge Now, in terms of natural gas ranging like it has, sharply dumping, and then beginning a new and major bull impulse, this is not without grounds, for this would be a fractal of the 2020 COVID dump-to-recovery play that saw a doubling into year end: If this were to play out, we'd see something like $1.60 natural gas into $4.8 by the end of the year or Q1 2024. After that, we may really see prices that exceed $10 and begin to flirt with all time highs at $15. The fundamental factors that would cause a 10 bagger on a commodity that literally equates to most of the world's electricity production are fairly significant. Especially considering "climate change" (lol "climate boiling") is attempting to be used as the pretext/excuse to export the Jiang-CCP Zero COVID social credit system worldwide in a way that far exceeds what was done during the pandemic. And so for the call, I would say the "short signal" with the markets hanging out in thin air at present, while we're about to begin a new quarterly shift, is a break of the $2.4 level. You'd want to short that break with a target meaningfully under $1.8 and then cover it without getting greedy. At that point, it's time to look for longs, and if you're a long term position trader, this may be one of the best opportunities you'll come across. But it may not really unfold until next year. And this assumes that my analysis is correct. Right now, daily price action is just showing failure swings, but nobody has stepped in yet to give it the push down the stairs it really needs.
NYMEX:NG1!
by LordWrymouth
32
UNG Testing Complex Inverted H&S NecklineUnited States Natural Gas Fund(UNG) is testing the neckline of a complex inverted head and shoulders pattern with an open and close above the neckline on a gap up in price today. Based on the orange line measurement taken from the lowest point of the head to the neckline we get $1.89 which can be applied to the opening price today above the neckline and gives an upper price target of $9.92 to watch for which is in the same area as the red horizonal resistance level stemming from the early march spike up to and rejection from $10. Inverted complex H&S patterns have a 71% success rate which means we multiply $1.89 by .71 to give us an initial upper price target of $9.33. Assuming that we have a successful breakout of the neckline to confirm the inverted H&S pattern profit-taking should be begin at the $9.33 level and peak in the $9.92-$10 range for short-term traders. Personally, I tend to just raise my stop-loss level as price moves higher rather than selling at the upper targets in case price continues to move above the projected targets. This gives me wiggle room for price to fluctuate at resistance/target levels while also ensuring that the trade is profitable should price reverse and I get stopped out. The lower PPO indicator shows the green line rising after crossing back above the purple signal line which indicates short-term bullish momentum. Both lines trending above the 0 level indicates intermediate to long-term bullish momentum. The lower TDI indicator shows the green RSI line rising above the 60 level which indicates short-term bullish price trend. The green RSI line is also trending outside of the upper white Bollinger Band which indicates extreme bullish price trend; generally you want to remain long when the RSI is trading outside of the upper BBand. Price tends to correct to the downside when the RSI line falls back below the upper Band so keep an eye on that when it happens if you are are short-term trader. Overall, when the RSI is trending between the 40-80 levels as it has been sine mid-June the the intermediate to long-term price trend is considered bullish. Overall, UNG is looking strong with bullish trend and momentum indicators as the price of Natural Gas moves higher along with crude oil. My buy price was $6.93 putting me up about +15% on the trade so far. Stop-loss is still sitting at $6.54 which is where I set it the day I bought, likely will move it somewhere around $7.50 tomorrow to keep me in profit should price reject at the neckline. Should price continue seeing strength this week the stop-loss will be moved closer to $8, just below the neckline. Info on complex head and shoulders bottom patterns: www.thepatternsite.com
AMEX:UNGLong
by PrepForProfit
UNG Wyckoff Accumulation PatternUnited States Natural Gas Fund appears to be in the process of heading into the Back Up(BU) phase of a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern after levelling off in the $7 area after seeing a ~75% decline from the August '22 high near $35. There is also an ascending triangle pattern forming in phases C and D which tend to result in higher prices as UNG puts in a series of higher lows. What we want to see as a sign of strength going forward is for price to move above the upper blue line of the triangle pattern and follow the trajectory of the orange arrow which represents the anticipated path for price. I've been in UNG since 7/20 with a buy price of $7.36. Current stop-loss order is at $6.61. No upper price target for now, just watching and waiting to see if price can break above the short-term resistance level at the upper triangle line near $7.85.
AMEX:UNGLong
by PrepForProfit
BOIL ( 3x Nat Gas ETF) Reverses to UpsideOn shown on the 15 minute chart with a VWAP band/line setup anchored to the July 1st pivot high. BOIL is in a VWAP breakout since bottoming mid-day July 17th. Confirming the reversal are the Price Volume Trend Oscillator printing a green histogram and an upgoing signal line as well as the zero-lag MACD with upgoing parallel lines crossing the zero-horizontal line. Price has crossed over the mean VWAP. On the dual time frame RSI indicator both the lower and higher RS lines ( blue and black) are above the 50 level and the lower time frame is higher highlighting bullish momentum. I will take a long trade targeting based on the VWAP lines first $65 and then $68. I will open equal amounts of call options striking the targets with expirations on July 28th. I seek a 100% ROI in the next 6-8 trading days. On an intraday basis, I may enter a low DTE call option at the low of day ( typically mid-morning) and exit at the high of day the same or next day.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember HerSince the end of February, and more accurately mid-March, the volatility on Natural Gas has all but disappeared. This is a good thing if you're bullish, because it's both consolidation and indicates accumulation. It's also a good thing from a sentiment/narrative perspective because everyone has all but forgotten trying to gamble on BOIL. Moreover, it's strange for Natural Gas to trade so cheaply in light of the situation with the conflict between NATO and Vladimir Putin and how it impacts both China and Xi Jinping and Europe. I've said in many of my previous natural gas calls that $10 wasn't the top. And if that supposition is true, the fact that we're trading at such an enormous discount for so long is really notable. Just look how big the discount is on the monthly: One of the core tenants of 2023's thus far price action being a likely bottom is that Natty has swept out the $2 mark twice, the last time in April. Since, it's then made a series of higher lows and now looks certain to make higher highs. Moreover, on the weekly we see any red bars are continually traded through to the upside by the MM. All of this comes while the algorithm has been playing around the December of 2020 monthly pivot. The fact that $2 has been protected so strictly and that the high of the year was set at only $3, which it touched for only a day, a Friday, to start March tells us that the target is more likely to be up than it is to be down. It is very hard for me to tell you if Natty is going to do $3.2, $3.5, $4, or $4.5. It may just double top at $3 and then go back to $1.8. What I can say is that getting over $4 ought to have a high degree of resistance. However, if the algs push it through, it's going to take off and take off in a hurry. One thing that is true is that you really should not be bearish on energy. I also believe that the Nasdaq in specific is about to correct so violently that it's going to set a new low. We may be in a scenario right now where we see something like: Equities correct USD up Energy up Metals up 10Y yield up VIX up Instead of the usual everything down and everything up all at once shenanigans. The world is running out of energy. Oil is not a bear market. Worldwide and US production peaked in 2018 and hasn't come back. A lot of the "oil" that is included in daily production numbers isn't actually crude oil but is "natural gas liquids" and other lesser substances. In a climate where mankind is using more and more electricity and temperatures are getting hotter and hotter, there is no reason to believe that natural gas should stay this cheap. How hot will July, August, and September be in North America? Natural gas _is_ electricity. It's also plastics. It's also what the places that get winter use to fuel their furnaces to stay alive. Are you really expecting $1.50?
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
25
Using volatility for income trades - UNG 59% ivNatural Gas and other commodities offer alternatives to main show which is the stock market indices. The spx sp500 is currently offering very low volatility premiums because its been trending higher in smooth way, and put sellers have crushed premium there. UNG etf offers an alternative potential opportunity for me since premium is high enough and its already had a nasty sell off for months since fall of 2022. With headlines of hot summers and potential higher energy use, Im comfortable nibbling at premium trades in UNG.
AMEX:UNGLong
by ValuePig
1
BOIL- Go Long SetupBOIL has had a busy month with the resurgence of natural gas prices and the reverse split six trading days ago. I analyze it as having further upside. On the 30-minute chart I have added two anchored VWAPs to the left on separate pivot points. This serves to make out dynamic support and resistance. Price has crossed over the mean VWAP zone which is between the heavy black lines. In confluence with that, it has crossed over the POC line of the volume profile represents the price point with the highest total trading volume over the visible time interval. Above price are the two targets being one and two standard deviations above the mean aVWAP. The volume indicator shows increasing relative volume overall as a sign of accumulation which generally results in price appreciation from the demand trend. I will set the stop loss at $.10 below the POC line and take a long position. One third of the position will come off upon each target advancing the stop loss to above the entry and making the trade risk-free. Another third with TP2 and finally the The remaining third will run on a trailing stop so I do not spend time micromanaging a smaller position. I believe that my overall bullish bias will be rewarded yet again over the near term.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
Natural Gas Due for a move to upsideI believe natural gas is respecting the support trendline quite strongly and as long as this trendline is held I am long on gas. One thing is for sue, we are much closer to the bottom than ever before... it is amazing that NATGAS is now worthless! too much production and storage has contributed to this freefall (not to mention that I believe it is highly manipulated). At some point the producers will cut production to balance their costs...
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by GoatOfWallStreet
10
NatGas Gold Silver Forecast | QQQ Market Analysis- Natural Gas stock slight red flag today - Natural Gas NatGas bull break above resistance today with no bull follow through and came below the resistance. - Gold & Silver Stock Falling Wedge Guide. - Silver is outperforming Gold and if silver weakens more Gold would likely break bearish through the falling wedge. - QQQ needs to confirm a hourly downtrend before we can have more confidence that the daily lower high is set. So far bulls played defense and we are still in a hourly uptrend.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ArcadiaTrading
BOIL Day Trade Recap and ReviewBOIL the 3x Leveraged ETF of natural gas futures has been highly volatile. Volatility yields high profits if there are good entries and trade management. This past Friday BOIL was doing a reverse split ( 20 shares become one) which I considered to be an opportunity for high profit because a higher number of traders would have eyes on the chart. The 15-minute chart is shown here with an anchored VWAP from 2 days earlier. At market open price reversed a downtrend after the reverse split in the premarket. It got support from the line one standard deviation below the mean VWAP. My first considered entry was the second green HA candle in the reversal with a stop loss at the pivot low of the red candles. However I passed on this entry and instead entered upon price crossing the mean VWAP. The entry was supported by the indicators showing Z score and volatility. The entry was made more precise by analysis on the 5-minute chart. The stop loss was set at the value of the close of the last candle to close below VWAP. After that, trade management was routine. Every time price went up 1% I raised the stop loss by the same amount until getting up 6% Once at that level, I changed to a trailing stop loss of 2% so I could pay attention to other trading chores. At the same time, I set an alert for when the price crossed to above two standard deviations above the mean anchored VWAP. I did this because this is the overvalued overbought area where institutional traders will set sell orders either short selling or closing profitable trades. The resultant reversal would diminish my unrealized profits. In this case, I got the alert and closed the position without the trailing loss. The trade resulted in a profit of 12% without use of leverage or margin other than the leverage imbedded in BOIL inself.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani