UNG continues to rise UNG the ETF that tracks natural gas futures has continued on a significant uptrend since June
1st The 2H chart suggests to be that the trend will continue this upcoming week. UNG is now
above the POC line of the long multi-session volume profile. UNG has had support from the
VWAP line representing two standard deviations below the mean. In recent days, price has
crossed that mean VWAP in a sign of bullish momentum. The volatility oscillator indicator
is showing bullish volatility while the RSI is high above 80 and staying there without any fade
to suggest bearish divergence. Overall, I will continue to run my position without any partial
take profit. My target is the VWAP line that is two standard deviations above the mean
anchored VWAP and so presently about 7.85. Any new trade would have the same target
while setting the stop loss just below the POC line.
UNG
Is KOLD getting chilled out ?KOLD's trend down may be continuing. They say weather climate conditions are for things
heating up. this trader concurs albeit from one of the traditional hottest places in the entire
USA and so with that bias come hell or bitter winter chill. On the chart, a persistent trend
down for KOLD underneath the Ichimoku cloud of the Luxalgo indicator is easily seen.
Luxalgo's Bollinger Band oscillator shows that price is riding down along the lower BB band
without any outlook for a reprive. Furthermore, price is well below the high volume
area of the volume profile and in the lowermost bands of the anchored VWAP. On the MACD
indicator, the MACD and signal are both trending down and well below zero.
In short, the value of KOLD is crashing down. Any traders long are best to consider liquidating
while any value remains. I am not long KOLD and happily continue my long positions in
BOIL, the inverse of it until analysis dictates otherwise.
BOIL Natural Gas Price Recover and ReverseBOIL on the 2H chart has bottomed and begun the reversal as this leveraged natural gas fund
sees a red to green in the HA candles as well as the volume. Price has crossedover the POC line
of the long-term volume profile and exploded from a Doji candle below the mean anchored
VWAP with consecutive engulfing bullish candles.
The Luxalgo AI predictive indicator suggests a parabolic move higher and
a correction in the first part of next week. I have already profited 700% on this trade that I
have been in since my earlier idea on BOIL. I will add to the position now but be watchful
for a reversal of the reversal while watching a volatility indicator to set the exit.
UNG Natural Gas ( Unleveraged) ETF LongOn the 4 hour chart- UNG had a head and shoulder pattern in May from which it descended
in a gradual fashion from May 25 to June 2nd and then reversed upward. The reversal occurred
at two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP and so deep in the oversold
area. Price has crossed over the higher VWAP line and so is in the band between the mean VWAP
and one standard deviation below it. Volumes have been persistent. Importantly, the zero
lag MACD shows the lines in parallel and crossing the zero horizontal line from underneath.
I see UNG properly set up for a long trade. Fundamentally, the hot summer may bring
increased natural gas consumption to make electricity for air conditioning. The dam disaster
in Ukraine may close down the biggest nuclear plant in Europe because of cooling
lakes potentially compromised. Natural gas may be an alternative fuel to make electricity.
Compressed NG from the US may become more important to Europe, especially since the
Nordic Stream pipeline issue developed. All in all, I think natural gas prices are likely to rise.
Natural Gas: 1.618 Confluence Support Zone Has Held Natural Gas was trading at this Log/Linear 1.618 Confluence Zone for a while and even confirmed a 3 white soldiers pattern from the zone, but has since been very quiet. However, it's recently begun to bring us somewhat of a bounce and has confirmed a couple of higher lows with some hidden Bullish Divergence on the MACD after holding above the Bullish Control Zone on the RSI and now it's looking to make some higher highs and could take back the entire range.
It should also be noted that this 1.618 confluence zone is at the PCZ of a 1.13 Bullish Shark.
Can KOLD make it through the summer?KOLD is a leveraged inverse of natural gas futures contracts. Natural gas prices could see a rise
this summer as it is fuel for electric plants to make electricity to power air conditioning and
charge all the new electric cars. Hydroelectric and wind might be green put they contribute
little to the large power grid. NG is better than coal and diesel. So if a supply and demand
imbalnce develops what does Eco 101 say will happen to prices ? KOLD will go down and BOIL,
its inverse will go up as rising current prices will reflect in futures contracts in months ahead.
On the chart, KOLD is seen in an uptrend and the RSI has crossed over the 50 line while
price has crossed over the POC line of the profile ( mean price at which the most shares traded
over the given date range). Bullish momentum is slightly dominating with moving averages
diverging. A volume void above may result in a small jump along the way. Will the summer
heat drive up NG prices and make KOLD melt?
UNG- Buy at a BottomAs shown on the 4H chart, UNG has been trending down albeit with a triple top in April
and a head and shoulders in early May. It is presently at the bottom of the long term volume
profile and two standard deviations below the running mean anchored VWAP. This is
deep undervalued territory. On the MACD indicator, the K and D lines intersecting while under
the histogram which is positive portrays an early entry signal. I believe that it is inevitable
that UNG will have an uptrend in June as it did in April and May. The uptrends had a slope
of about 1.5-3% per day while underway. I will take a long trade in UNG and potentially BOIL
while leveraging XNGUSD on forex. For UNG, the targets are the POC line of the volume profile,
and mean VWAP , the final target is one standard deviation above VWAP while the stop loss
is three standard deviations below VWAP ( thin green line).
UNG retracement complete- to uptrend again.UNG as shown on the 15-minute chart had an untrend for a week culminated by the very steep
finish to the uptrend into resistance followed by a very rapid bounce down and retracement.
A standard 50% Fibonacci retracement is now complete. UNG appears to be bounding off
the POC line of the volume profile which coincides with the 0.5 Fib level.
UNG tracks the natural gas futures, especially the leading month. It appears now ready to
resume an uptrend. This is a directional bearing on the trend for any instrument based on
natural gas prices including XNGUSD on forex.
Can XNGUSD short squeeze?XNGUSD on the weekly chart showing two years of price action with weekly candles
shows the rise in 2021 into spring 2022 then printing a head and shoulders pattern
and the reversal to deep into the support/demand zone. The volume profile shows
the majority of the trading during this time period to have been between $3.75 and
$ 8.50. It would seem likely that there are a sizeable amount of short sellers holding
positions with unrealized profits of 50% to as much as 300%. This past week had the
best buying volume in six months and provides bulls with optimism
If natural gas can gain some momentum and put in green candles with a decent price range for
a couple of weeks in a row, the combination of new buyers with new interest and short sellers
liquidating and buying to cover their unrealized gains might ignite a bit of a rally for natural
gas. I will keep natural gas on watch. I will keep in mind that a breakout without a
corresponding volume the response could be a fakeout. A stop loss would be $1.95 below the
support zone while the final target would be $4.75 below the POC line. Interval take profits
would be 10% of the forex lots every time the price rises by $0.50 for risk management and
good profit taking while underway.
Natural Gas Update: BreakoutNat Gas had an epic move to the upside today.
will the bullish momentum continue?
BOIL LONG a 3x leverage Natural Gas ETF Natural Gas prices have finally reversed on the FOREX markets
after significant downtrends from a historical high.
BOIL on the hourly chart has reversed a two-week downtrend
and today has an increasing volume. Ir bounced off the lower
Fibonacci levels and is looking to revert to the mean. Price
was undervalued below the green fair value zone at the VWAP
+/- one standard deviation but is now heading back into it
from the buying pressure.
As a 3x leveraged ETF is prone to more volatility than the
unleveraged UNG counterpart. I will play this with a call
option contract expiring 3/31 striking $4.00 and expecting
at least a 50% return in the upcoming 8 trading days.
The risk here is that this is just a short pullback on the
downtrend but getting in early on a long and watching carefully
is the approach I have taken.
Natural Gas Short squeeze!Natural Gas had a bullish close today up over 4% despite weakening economic data.
We could be entering the next stage where Nat gas starts moving higher off these lows.
Clear Accumulation has been occurring and this move off the lows matches the seasonality period of Nat gas.
Natural Gas & Energy UpdateNatural Gas is on watch for a technical Breakout
We got a bullish daily close on Natural gas today.
Its the first time Nat gas has had 2 daily closes above the 50 day moving average since it started the nasty downtrend.
Natural gas trying to stabilize & reverse after steep downtrendNatural gas has been in a strong downtrend for the past year but finally sellers look exhausted and prices have stabilized. New lows failed to stick in the beginning of May which has led to a reversal higher.
Sets up for a decent risk-reward trade to the upside, but stops and time-frame is important.
Natural Gas Support and Resistance Guide | Price Outlook- AMEX:UNG AMEX:BOIL VANTAGE:NG Still trading within my falling wedge pattern is getting tight so likely breaking soon
- Bounced off of quadrupole support Friday
- couple of resistance level right above us may test the upper falling wedge resistance next week