Buy Recommendation Note for UnitedHealth Group (UNH)Recommendation: Buy
Buy Zone: $551.50 - $557.00
Target: $600.00 (Short-Term), $650.00 (Medium-Term)
Rationale
Strong Fundamentals: UnitedHealth Group has consistently delivered robust revenue growth driven by its diversified healthcare services and insurance offerings.
Industry Leadership: As a leader in the healthcare sector, UNH benefits from its scale, market share, and innovative healthcare solutions, ensuring long-term stability.
Positive Outlook: Recent developments and earnings reports indicate strong growth potential, supported by increasing demand for managed healthcare services.
Valuation: Current levels provide a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for entry, with the stock trading near a key support zone.
Technical Analysis
The stock has shown strong support in the $551.50 - $557 range, making it an attractive buying opportunity. A breakout above $560 could signal a bullish continuation toward the target zones.
Technical Analysis
The stock has shown strong support in the $551.50 - $557 range, making it an attractive buying opportunity. A breakout above $560 could signal a bullish continuation toward the target zones.
Disclaimer:
This note is for study and informational purposes only. The recommendations and price levels mentioned are based on market observations and are not a guarantee of performance. Please consult with a licensed financial advisor and carefully consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, including the potential loss of capital.
Unitedhealthgroup
UNH Bounce - Don't Miss Out On This 15% OpportunityNYSE:UNH dropped after the tragic death of UnitedHealthcare CEO (not UNH Group CEO) as well as public backlash. Nevertheless, as always in such situation, this has nothing to do with the stock itself. As price action traders we do not trade political or news events since those drops have an unimportant impact mid- to long-term.
UNH now sits on the support zone at around $550 which was previous resistance. We also filled the daily gap at around $568 completely. We touched the 0.236 Fib from the $273 bottom (from 2020) and the RSI is nearly oversold on the daily. This gives us a got chance for a bounce from this zone up to $600 - $620.
Support Levels:
$550
$528
Target/Resistance Levels:
$600
$622-628
UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) Faces Surge in Medical CostsUnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:UNH ), one of the largest health insurers in the United States, reported a 3% drop in share price following its Q3 2024 earnings report. The company's results highlighted an uptick in medical costs as it grapples with challenges in its insurance business, including lower government payments and persistently high healthcare demand. Let’s break down the key aspects driving the stock's recent performance.
Elevated Costs and Earnings Beat
UnitedHealth's Q3 2024 results showed a significant rise in its medical loss ratio (MLR)—the percentage of premiums used to cover medical costs. The MLR rose to 85.2%, exceeding both last year’s figure (82.3%) and analysts’ expectations of 84.2%. This surge in costs is attributed to an increase in healthcare services under Medicare plans, particularly for individuals aged 65 and older, as postponed procedures from the COVID-19 pandemic catch up. Additionally, turnover in Medicaid has left insurers with a sicker patient base, further elevating costs.
Despite these challenges, UnitedHealth delivered an adjusted profit of $7.15 per share, beating Wall Street estimates by 15 cents. The company's revenues hit $100.8 billion, surpassing the $99.28 billion expected by analysts, thanks to strong growth in its healthcare services businesses under Optum and insurance offerings under UnitedHealthcare.
Key highlights:
- Optum Health revenue grew by $2.1 billion, driven by the expansion of value-based care and in-home patient services.
- Optum Rx, the company’s pharmacy services division, saw revenue growth of $5.4 billion, fueled by new clients and expanded pharmacy offerings.
- Medicare and Medicaid pressures persisted, with the company facing government funding reductions and a sicker Medicaid population due to eligibility redeterminations.
While the overall financial performance was positive, the rise in medical costs and increased demand for healthcare services, particularly from Medicare and Medicaid plans, weighed on investor sentiment, contributing to the drop in stock price.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Signs Emerge
On the technical front, NYSE:UNH stock has entered a bearish trend following the earnings report, and it is currently down 3.54% in Tuesday’s pre-market trading. On Monday, the stock saw a 1.60% gain but quickly reversed as the negative aspects of the earnings report began to dominate market sentiment.
The stock has broken below its symmetrical triangle pattern, confirming a bearish continuation pattern. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 66 on Monday, indicating the stock was approaching overbought territory. However, the sharp decline in pre-market trading has relieved some of this pressure. If the bearish momentum continues, the RSI could dip below 50, signaling further downside potential.
Immediate support lies at $530, the base of the triangle pattern, where the stock may find some consolidation. The stock is currently hovering around its 50-day. A break below these levels could reinforce the bearish sentiment and signal further downside to come.
What Can Investors Expect?
From a fundamental perspective, UnitedHealth's revenue growth and earnings beat show that the company remains a leader in the healthcare sector, with its Optum businesses continuing to drive profitability. However, the elevated medical costs, particularly related to Medicare and Medicaid, could be a persistent headwind. Regulatory changes or adjustments in Medicaid enrollment could also add to volatility in the coming quarters.
On the technical side, the break below the triangle pattern is a bearish signal, and further downside toward the $530 support level seems likely if sentiment does not improve. Investors should watch for signs of consolidation at these levels or a potential breakdown, which could push the stock even lower.
Conclusion
UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: NYSE:UNH ) remains a strong company with a diverse portfolio spanning insurance and healthcare services. However, its near-term outlook is clouded by rising medical costs, Medicare funding challenges, and Medicaid enrollment fluctuations. Technically, the stock is in a bearish phase, but key support levels could provide opportunities for long-term investors if the stock consolidates or rebounds.
UnitedHealth Shares Surge 4.91% on Q1 Earnings UpdateUnitedHealth Group ( NYSE:UNH ), the titan of the health insurance industry, emerged triumphant in the face of daunting challenges as it delivered a stellar performance in its first-quarter earnings update. Despite grappling with a surge in medical payouts and the financial fallout from a crippling cyberattack, UnitedHealth's resilience shone through, propelling its shares to a robust 4.91% surge in early trading.
Earnings Beat and Resilience:
UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) reported adjusted earnings of $6.91 per share for the first quarter, exceeding Wall Street's expectations by 30 cents. The impressive 10.4% year-over-year growth underscored the company's ability to navigate turbulent waters while maintaining its upward trajectory.
Revenue Strength and Optum Dominance:
Bolstered by robust revenue figures, UnitedHealth showcased its financial prowess with group revenues surging 8.55% to $99.8 billion. Notably, Optum, the crown jewel of UnitedHealth's empire, saw its revenue soar 22.2% to $61.1 billion, cementing its position as the primary engine of the group's earnings growth.
Medical Cost Challenges and Cyberattack Fallout:
Amidst the triumph, UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) faced headwinds in the form of rising medical costs, reflected in a nearly 2-percentage-point increase in the medical-cost ratio to 84.3%. Furthermore, the company grappled with the aftermath of the Blackcat cyberattacks, which inflicted an $872 million blow to its Change Healthcare unit. Despite these setbacks, UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) remained steadfast in its commitment to delivering value to its stakeholders.
Outlook and Forward Momentum:
CEO Andrew Witty reaffirmed UnitedHealth's full-year adjusted earnings forecast, projecting a range between $27.50 and $28 per share. However, the company acknowledged the looming impact of the cyberattack, with potential costs soaring to as high as $1.6 billion for the year. Despite these challenges, Witty emphasized the company's unwavering focus on enhancing customer experiences and driving balanced growth.
Market Response and Sector Challenges:
The market responded enthusiastically to UnitedHealth's resilience, with shares surging 7.75% in pre-market trading. However, the broader healthcare sector faces mounting pressures, including tepid Medicare Advantage payment increases and regulatory scrutiny on pharmacy-benefit managers. Nonetheless, UnitedHealth's robust performance signals a beacon of hope amidst the industry's tumultuous landscape.
Medicare Advantage Rates Shake Health Insurers:The healthcare sector witnessed a significant upheaval as UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) and other major players tumbled following the Biden Administration's announcement regarding Medicare Advantage rates for 2025. The unexpected decision sent shockwaves through the industry, prompting a flurry of market activity and sparking concerns among investors.
Impact on Health Insurers:
The Biden Administration's announcement that final Medicare Advantage rates in 2025 will remain unchanged from initial plans in January dealt a blow to major health insurers, particularly UnitedHealth and Humana. Both companies, as leading Medicare Advantage players, experienced substantial declines in their stock prices, with Humana plunging 9.4% and UnitedHealth sinking 4% in premarket trading.
Market Response and Investor Sentiment:
The market response was swift and decisive, with other health insurers such as CVS Health and Cigna also witnessing notable retreats in their stock prices. CVS Health, a significant Medicare Advantage player, saw its stock retreat by 4% overnight, while Cigna experienced a 1.1% dip early Tuesday. Smaller players in the Medicare Advantage market, including Centene and Molina Healthcare, were not spared from the downturn, reflecting the broad impact of the announcement on the industry.
Technical Outlook and Bearish Trend:
UnitedHealth's stock is currently entrenched in a bearish trend, underscored by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44.88 and trading below its respective Moving Averages (MA). This technical analysis further validates the bearish sentiment surrounding NYSE:UNH stock and highlights the challenges it faces in the current market environment.
Implications for the Healthcare Sector:
The Biden Administration's decision regarding Medicare Advantage rates in 2025 has far-reaching implications for the healthcare sector, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape and impacting revenue streams for major insurers. As companies navigate this period of uncertainty, strategic agility and resilience will be crucial in mitigating risks and seizing opportunities amidst evolving market dynamics.
UNH Stock tumble after report of antitrust investigationUnitedHealth Group ( NYSE:UNH ) finds itself navigating turbulent waters as it confronts both regulatory scrutiny and cybersecurity disruptions. The recent revelation of a U.S. Department of Justice antitrust investigation has sent shockwaves through the healthcare conglomerate, causing its shares to plummet by about 5%. This investigation, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, casts a shadow over UnitedHealth's ( NYSE:UNH ) acquisitions made through its health services arm, Optum, raising concerns about potential monopolistic practices and their impact on competition within the healthcare industry.
The timing couldn't be more precarious, as UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) grapples with the fallout from a cybersecurity attack on its Change Healthcare unit, which has led to an eight-day outage. The prolonged disruption has not only rattled investor confidence but has also triggered operational challenges for the conglomerate and its partners, including pharmacy chains like CVS Health.
Analysts are quick to underscore the significance of these developments. Scott Fidel, an analyst at Stephens, aptly describes it as a "tough past week of headlines for UnitedHealth." The market reaction has been swift and severe, with more than $25 billion wiped out from UnitedHealth's market value, exacerbating losses incurred earlier in the week.
The ramifications of the reported antitrust probe extend beyond UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ), casting a shadow of uncertainty over its competitors. Humana and CVS Health, both with aspirations in caregiving akin to UnitedHealth's Optum arm, have witnessed declines in their respective stock prices, signaling investor apprehension about the potential ripple effects of the investigation.
Julie Utterback, an analyst at Morningstar, underscores the interconnectedness of the healthcare landscape, suggesting that the investigation could have implications for CVS and Humana, especially if it expands further.
The specifics of the investigation delve into the intricate relationships between UnitedHealthcare ( NYSE:UNH ) and Optum, probing into potential conflicts of interest and anti-competitive behaviors. Such scrutiny underscores the complexities inherent in the intersection of insurance and healthcare services, where conglomerates like UnitedHealth wield considerable influence.
Meanwhile, Change Healthcare continues to grapple with the aftermath of the cybersecurity incident, with disruptions expected to persist. The impact reverberates across the healthcare ecosystem, affecting not only UnitedHealth but also its partners and clients, including pharmacy chains reliant on its services.
As UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) navigates these challenges, stakeholders are left pondering the company's resilience and the broader implications for the healthcare industry. Will regulatory scrutiny force a reassessment of consolidation strategies? Can UnitedHealth ( NYSE:UNH ) effectively mitigate cybersecurity risks and restore trust in its operations?
UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) Shakes Investors with 4Q Earnings
UnitedHealth Group ( NYSE:UNH ) recently made headlines as it unveiled its fourth-quarter earnings, leaving investors with mixed sentiments. While the numbers beat estimates, concerns over rising medical costs and future pricing strategies have cast a shadow on the stock's performance. This article delves into the intricacies of NYSE:UNH 's financial report, analyzes the factors driving its market movement, and examines the outlook for the healthcare giant in the coming quarters.
Breaking Down the Numbers:
Analysts anticipated fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $5.98 for UNH, reflecting a 12% YoY increase. Surpassing expectations, UNH reported an impressive 15.4% growth in EPS, reaching $6.16 per share. Revenue also outpaced estimates, rising by 14.1% to $94.4 billion. However, the spotlight fell on the medical cost ratio, which climbed to 85 in Q4, exceeding analysts' projections. This ratio, representing the percentage of premiums spent on members' health needs, raised concerns about the sustainability of UNH's profit margins.
Factors Driving the Numbers:
NYSE:UNH attributed the elevated medical cost ratio to several ongoing factors, including the provision of outpatient care, primarily serving seniors, and the composition of its business mix. The company highlighted that coverage in government programs tended to incur higher costs compared to commercial coverage. Additionally, UNH acknowledged a $100 million unfavorable development in medical reserves during Q4, signaling potential challenges in managing future healthcare costs.
Outlook and Pricing Pressure:
Despite the strong performance, UNH maintained its full-year EPS guidance of $27.50 to $28, suggesting confidence in its ability to navigate challenges. However, analysts expressed concerns over the unexpected rise in the medical cost ratio, emphasizing the potential impact on pricing strategies in 2024. The company recognized a $100 million unfavorable development in medical reserves during Q4, marking the first negative revision since 4Q16. Analysts believe these details indicate heightened pressure on pricing in the coming years.
Stock Market Reaction:
Following the earnings release, UNH stock experienced a 3.65% decline to $520 in early Friday market action. The stock had previously shown signs of resilience by climbing 0.4% on Thursday, surpassing its 50-day and 10-week moving averages. Despite a consolidation period dating back to November 2022, UNH has struggled to gain significant momentum since April 2022. The relative strength line, tracking the stock's performance against the S&P 500 index, has been on a downward trend since November 2022.
Conclusion:
UnitedHealth Group's fourth-quarter earnings report has sparked a nuanced conversation among investors. While the company exceeded EPS and revenue expectations, concerns over the rising medical cost ratio and its impact on future pricing strategies have raised eyebrows. As UNH navigates these challenges, investors will closely monitor how the healthcare giant adapts its business model to maintain profitability in an evolving healthcare landscape.
Unitedhealth Group broke above the Diamond rocket to $579Broadening Diamond shape has formed since 5 January.
It was an either or situation. Either it breaks up or down. Clearly, it's broken up giving a decent Risk to Reward ratio.
Now the momentum will most likely push the price up.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target $579
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold UNH here:
or here:
Then analyzing the options chain of UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 460usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $36.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Double TopA double top is one of the most bearish technical reversal patterns.
A Double Top Bearish Chart Pattern forms after an asset reaches a high price two consecutive times.
After applying the Elliot Waves Pattern on UNH UnitedHealth Group, we have 2 price targets: $459 and $396.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the Double Top:
Then looking at the UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the HKEX:520 strike price Calls with
2023-4-21 expiration date for about
$6.20 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
UnitedHealth Group share outlook before the earningsShares in UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (symbol ‘UNH’) have been trading in a bearish movement throughout the first quarter of 2023. The company is expected to report its earnings for the fiscal quarter ending March 2023 on Friday 14th of April. The consensus EPS is $6,25 compared to the result for the same quarter last year of $5,49.
‘The last recording we had in regards to the company’s current ratio for the last quarter in 2022 was 77%. This indicates that the company does not have the ability to use its current assets to adequately cover its current liabilities. With a low dividend yield of less than 1.5% and a payout ratio of around 30% the company does not hold the title of an “exciting/attractive” selection in terms of returns.‘ said Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness ‘ Although the company’s technical details might not be that appealing it is still one of the biggest players in the health insurance industry and therefore still attracting investors attention.’
On the technical side the price has been trading in a declining channel for the first quarter of the year with a valid break above only in the last session. The Bollinger bands are expanding indicating volume building up while the following sessions are important to see if the price will move back into the channel or if the bullish correction will hold strong. The 50 day moving average is still trading well below the 1oo day moving average showing that the overall bearish movement is still valid for the time being while the Stochastic oscillator is moving towards the extreme overbought levels.
United Health: Healthy As A… Bear? 🐻… or what was that saying again? Anyway, after a short hiatus, the bears in our United Health-chart should regain their health and get back to work. They should soon push the share below the support at $456.73 and from there into the dark green zone between $427.67 and $391.43, where wave A in dark green should end. This low should then be followed by a considerable upwards movement above the resistance at $501.40. There is also a 37% chance that United Health could cold-shoulder the dark green zone and climb above $501.40 directly. In that case, we would consider wave alt.A in dark green to be already finished.
UNITED HEALTH Buy Opportunity for this quarterThe UnitedHealth Group (UNH) hit the Resistance Zone following our last (November 18) signal but as it failed to break through its top, it got rejected:
By doing so, the price even broke below the Higher Lows trend-line and the Bullish Megaphone pattern, that were in effect since February 2021. This potentially signals a deceleration on its enormous and sustainable rise but not necessarily that it turns bearish. In order to do so, it needs a closing below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
Right now with the price on the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1D RSI oversold at 30.000, it is on the very same spot it was on the June 17 2022 Low. See between the two fractals, the successive hits on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we consider this a buy opportunity back to the bottom (551.00) of the Resistance Zone.
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UnitedHealthGroup Analysis 19.11.2022Welcome to the BasicTrading channel.
My name is Philip and in todays analysis I quickly go over the situation which we currently have on UnitedHealth Group.
I will analyse the asset both from a weekly and daily timeframe to show you the best possible trading opportunities.
If you enjoyed this analysis, let me know in the comment section which asset I should analyse tomorrow.
I will personally reply to every single comment.
Dont forget to smash that rocket and I will see you tomorrow with a new analysis.
UNH: Can trend line hold bears?United Health Group
Short Term - We look to Buy a break of 506.00 (stop at 485.43)
The primary trend remains bullish. A sequence of daily higher highs and lows has been posted. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. Trend line support is located at 500.00. Further upside is expected.
Our profit targets will be 558.58 and 580.00
Resistance: 560.00 / 580.00 / 600.00
Support: 500.00 / 450.00 / 400.0
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Another Short on UNH. UNHI have lost count of the number of successful shorts I've had on this say over the last six months.
Momentum flipped, PSAR close to. Elliott is always the main drive to all of our decision making, however.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
SGFY: Sell the rumour, buy the news!Signify Health
Short Term - We look to Sell at 29.83 (stop at 33.46)
There is market rumour that Amazon, United Health and CVS are interested in buying this company. This led to a surge in the stock in premarket. We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. Bespoke resistance is located at 30.00. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 20.04 and 18.00
Resistance: 30.00 / 34.00 / 40.00
Support: 20.00 / 16.00 / 12.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
4/24/22 UNHUnitedHealth Group Inc. ( NYSE:UNH )
Sector: Health Services (Managed Health Care)
Market Capitalization: $490.152B
Current Price: $520.94
Breakout price: $536.25
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $529.50-$507.55
Price Target: $548.50-$553.30 (1st), $611.50-$618.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 29-31d (1st), 97-100d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $UNH 5/20/22 520c, $UNH 9/16/22
Trade price as of publish date: $18.57/contract, $25.25/contract
UnitedHealth Group is arrhythmic. UNHImmediate targets 461, 448, 432. Invalidation 544.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
UnitedHealth is about to loose more health. UNHZigzag in progress post upward impulse. Fibs show where we might land, as B wave appears to be incomplete. Anyway, bearish.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!