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Further Fate of DXYI made this prediction on January 14, 2021 for myself, but I'm only publishing it now (because I figured why not?). It will serve as a timestamp and we will see how it fills over time. Let's take a look at TVC:DXY , something that determines half of the world economy. My Prediction: in the long term (in the sense of crypto - 1y-2y): - DXY will break down hard. - crypto will be incredibly pumped by new capital escaping from collapsing traditional markets in ultra-long (in the sense of crypto - 3y-5y): - we have the end of the dollar as the dominant currency - we will see the new face of the entire crypto market Legend to read the chart: - description: DXY monthly, Zoom Out to TradingView's top of stock. - red vertical lines: lowest low on the cycle - vertical green bars: highest high per cycle - peak / bottom occurs on average every 7-8 years (blue balloons at the end with the number of bars. 1 bar = 1 month) - purple strokes - great descending channel - yellow horizontal lines: Fibonacci measured from the last peak (March 2020, beginning of the pandemic) to the support from which the DXY breakout took place (August 2014). Fibo values ​​shifted to the right for the readability of the chart. And now - we have 3 points of intersection on DXY in the future, that is: - purple channel - yellow retracement of fibo 1.618 (the thickest yellow bottom line) - red distance in time - prediction for a next bottom. What facts support this prediction: - 16-year dollar cycles - currently it looks like we have a half cycle and a systematic decline. We'll get to the bottom in 3-5 years - Biden administration (tax supporter, mass stimulation, possibly permanent guaranteed income) - the rise of China's power, increasing economic domination, cryptoyuan is on the doorstep, making world production dependent on one another, cutting itself off from global systems, partnership with Russia, dominance in Asia - the rise of Asia as a whole, the largest economic pacts in history If this is really our target for the next 3-5 years, the index decline is about 29%. What does it mean: - collapse of the USA as a world empire - collapse of the dollar and the petrodollar system - Bitcoin to the moon, unless they regulate it and ban trading for little ones, and leave it to institutions - there will be not only ALT season, but also whole CRYPTO season. Projects with good foundations will systematically raise money (be it from stimulus, or from institutions and corporations), so anything from the top 150 is worth keeping on super long term HODL. Key issues for the coming years: - what will happen to the dollar, what system will be put in place instead? - will China dominate this new system? If so, what will be the answer from the US? - or will there be a clear systemic division between West vs East with an eastern center of gravity in China? - what role will crypto play? Will they let him play freely as he has done so far? - What if Biden dies during his term of office? What will Kamala Harris do then? Feel free to discuss this idea.
TVC:DXYLong
by Jehu92
5
Time for new resolutions or do we mess it up more?U.S. Public Debt at 127.78% of GDP... How sustainable is it? Overall, as the U.S. Federal Debt keeps on climbing, the S&P 500 keeps on climbing... It might be great for the U.S stock market but it is very bad for present and future generations. Federal Debt: FRED:GFDEGDQ188S S&P500: CURRENCYCOM:US500 CURRENCYCOM:US500 The U.S. Public Debt is now at 127.78% of the U.S. GDP... How sustainable is this trend? There used to be lots of international buyers who were keen on buying U.S Treasury Notes and U.S Treasury Bonds, such as China. Will China still buy happily those financial products, thereby financing this ever-increasing debt, set on an uncontrollable path? As we now enter a phase where each country thinks of its own survival, how will be willing to finance the debt of other countries? It is becoming less and less likely. International cooperation related to unsustainable borrowing, will trickle down considerably. And the new reality of "to each his own" will become a renewed source of conflict, domestically and globally. Time for new resolutions or do we mess it up more? François Normandeau Institutional Research Director at ADX-BRIEFING
FRED:GFDEGDQ188S
by Pine_Academy
UNIUSDT - Bullish Flag Formation Signaling A Move Higheror is it a trap for bulls? Bullish flag formations are found in stocks with strong uptrends. They are called bull flags because the pattern resembles a flag on a pole. The pole is the result of a vertical rise in a stock and the flag results from a period of consolidation. The flag can be a horizontal rectangle, but is also often angled down away from the prevailing trend. Another variant is called a bullish pennant, in which the consolidation takes the form of a symmetrical triangle. The shape of the flag is not as important as the underlying psychology behind the pattern. Basically, despite a strong vertical rally, the stock refuses to drop appreciably, as bulls snap up any shares they can get. The breakout from a flag often results in a powerful move higher, measuring the length of the prior flag pole. It is important to note that these patterns work the same in reverse and are known as bear flags and pennants. Bull flags have been rare over the last few months of 2008, but they have been beginning to surface in conjunction with the recent market rally. You will learn the best place where we can trade this instrument at low risk. Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see. Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU. P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy. Always make your analysis before a trade
Long
by Yuriy_Bishko
4
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)According to the theory of time cycles in financial markets, the dollar tends to reach the bottom in January. In fundamental terms, the dollar usually weakens slightly towards the end of the presidency. Especially if a Republican like Trump is president. The value of the dollar weakens, especially during the Republican era, and grows during the Democratic era. (Just look at the chart) There are two lines of support here that mark the end of the flat correction pattern. Wave support line (4) and correction wave support line (a) And I estimate the probability of a price return from wave (a) support at 90%. I wish you good deals Please like the post and leave a comment so that we can get energy and provide more analysis, thank you
TVC:DXYShort
by UnknownUnicorn13595347
USDCAD In A Bear MoveHi traders! USDCAD has at the beginning of November of 2020 broke out of a triangle correction, which was located in wave 4, and started trading impulsively lower into a wave 5 of a bigger, bearish trend. At the moment we are observing a five-wave move to be underway within a sub-wave iii of 5, which can extend its weakness towards the Fib. ratio of 1.618 (1.257 area), where end of a third wave can be seen, and a corrective sub-wave iv can start to develop. That said, price can look lower as long as the trendline connected from the October highs is not breached. Also be aware of minor pullbacks along the way. Trade well! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
2
DXY US political developmentsUS political developments and their impact on the dollar : Here is a principle for you to remember: The value of the dollar decreases during the Republican era and increases during the Democratic era. Of course, this is done with a certain time priority after the elections. This is a long-term priority for the transition from Republicans to Democrats. That is, prices will last until they form a reversal. As I publish my analysis of the dollar index, Joe Biden has been declared the winner of the US presidential election with 290 electoral votes. Do not forget that it will take time for the dollar to appreciate after the Democrats came to power! And the price continues to decline for some time. This means that the scenario you see in the chart is possible. And the target can be touched. Of course, note that this is just an analysis and probability and a hypothesis! But it can give us a good perspective on doing the right thing.
TVC:DXYShort
by mr_index
USD/JPY Maximize Your Risk-Reward With This Simple Trick!In the end, what matters most in trading is risk reward ratio and win percentage. We can see here on USD/JPY some great indicators of a bearish price continuation. However, in itself that is not enough. I suggest to maximize the risk reward ratio by waiting for the price to be closer to the top resistance line before entering with a trade. This will allow you to get a better RRR. In this trade set-up you can see from the chart how I created a 4 RRR trade idea. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Short
by Trading-Guru
5
Baidu Apollo Undervalued (Significantly)1. Baidu have had low valuation due to its stagnant growth of its core business - search engine in China, however, it enjoys a significant moat in this segment as it is the largest market share holder - therefore has network effect. 2. Baidu had been investing significantly in developing AI and autonomous driving over the past few years. Its Apollo project is as good as (if not better), than Google's Waymo. However, Apollo is valued at $1.3 billion only (3% of Baidu's market cap) due to Baidu's core business growth, and unclear roadmap of monetization of Apollo. But, Google's Waymo is valued at $30 billion. It is worth noting that only Waymo and Apollo achieved the L4 auto driving, where they begin 1000+ testing of full self driving on road. Tesla's autonomous driving had been recording data of man's driving, while Waymo and Apollo records data on full self-driving. 3. Recently, Baidu began its robotaxi test drive in Beijing, which received huge responses, had cause the stock price to break out its few months resistance level. Therefore, I believe that the break out from a technical perspective may signify huge support for Baidu in addition to its near term upward trend (typical higher lows). 4. Despite full self driving is still years before it could be full commercialised, Baidu's Apollo had also been providing smart city solutions to assist with provinces of China to solve the traffic issue. In Guangzhou, Baidu received RMB 450 million project. This may be the key monetisation way for Baidu in the next 2-3 years, which is very likely given the traffic issues have been causing waste of resources for China, thus the government is likely invest in smart transportation through Baidu. Therefore, we can expect more projects given by the government, which would be a catalyst moving forward. 5. In mid September, Baidu's management noted that re-listing in Hong Kong would gives it a higher valuation that it currently has. Therefore, we may expect a catalyst from this part. Also, the current risk to reward ratio is worth betting on. If it breaks the current support ( breaking the low of the uptrend), then we might have to look for another entry point. However, recent pull back after break out provide a great entry point.
NASDAQ:BIDULong
by DEHJ
US30|DOW JONES Bearish DirectionLeave a like below as well as a comment if this is helpful, it is always much appreciated! FX:US30 Currently the Dow Jones industrial average is at an area of resistance on our trendline and from a weekly point of view, price action seems to be at an area where it has formed a double top. If price action will continue to reject, we can expect a strong bearish move that could send the index down hundreds of points. Also there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the election (which takes place next month) that also supports a bearish move.
FX:US30Short
by illMcNasty