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USD/JPY Best Buy Positions While Trading in Strong UptrendIn this technical analysis I will explain my current view on USD/JPY and why I suggest a long position. Also, I will explain what good areas are to buy it now that we are in an uptrend. USD/JPY has been in an uptrend for almost a full week now. This means that buying is becoming more and more tricky. Remember to always try to buy low and sell high. This means that you wouldn't want to buy at the end of an uptrend. Especially if you look at the RSI right now we see an >> overbought << RSI with a value of over 70. This is an indicator that you shouldn't want to buy right now, but instead sell. Since I expect the uptrend to continue overall, I do suggest to enter a long position. The only thing we need to figure out is where to buy now. If we look at the channel, we see that the price is now trading towards the top of the channel. Combined with the overbought RSI I expect that the price will retrace slightly. If it does, this creates a really nice buy opportunity. You can wait for the price to drop towards the lower part of the channel, but also if we look at horizontal support we see a nice S/R flip that can indicate an area to buy. After the buy, you can either hold it for a long time to trade the trend all the way to the end, or exit quicker as soon as the price is near the top of the channel again. I suggest to leave the trade sooner than later, since the whole world and especially the US has lots of uncertainty right now. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
Long
by Trading-Guru
8
Will Hong Kong abandon the peg against the USD?Will Hong Kong abandon the peg against the USD? The financial hub of Asia, which connects the East to the West has been in the middle of pissing contest between the United States and China, not to mention their domestic struggle between them and China. If protests for autonomy in Hong Kong continue, and President Trump implements drastic foreign policy measures against Hong Kong, extreme capital outflows may ensue, forcing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to abandon its peg on the U.S. dollar. Could Donald Trump’s election woes force the Peg to break? As the November Election edges nearer, President Donald Trump risks losing the presidency due to his mismanagement of the Coronavirus. David Rocke describes his reopening the American Economy as “gambling for resurrection.” A branch of game theory, which essentially states everything that the President is doing with regards to the Coronavirus is perfectly rational. He has two choices: He does nothing drastic, the death increase, therefore basically ensuring his loss in the election. Or he reopens the economy, maybe squashes the curve, and promotes that it was a success, giving him a higher chance of winning the election. If that doesn’t work, well, he was going to lose the election anyway. As the Jobless claims reached 41 Million yesterday, President Trump is losing the grip on the election. Desperation may be a giant risk for Hong Kong’s peg. However, there is one thing the President has full control over – foreign policy. With a China conference set tomorrow, there a high possibility given his election chances that he implements drastic sanctions against Hong Kong to please his supporters. This is alongside Secretary Pompeo announcing that “It could no longer verify Hong Kong’s autonomy from China,” which gave it special trade exceptions with the U.S. This may put upwards pressure against the Hong Kong Dollar, which is pegged against the USD as the financial instability from the sanctions may cause extreme capital outflows. However, this alone may not cause a capital outflow, nor may the capital outflow force the peg to break. Hong Kong may impose restrictions on capital outflows for the time being. History of the Hong Kong / U.S. Dollar Peg As the financial hub connecting the West to the East, Hong Kong teased investors with its free-flowing capital policies, with a promise of financial stability and consistency. In 1983, the currency was pegged to the USD. This was due tp Concerns regarding the future of Hong Kong after 1997, when the handover of control from the British to China was set to take place. The rate at which the Hong Kong dollar was pegged to the U.S. Dollar has changed over time, however, for the past 37 years, it has remained pegged to the U.S. currency. For the past 12 years since the Great recession, Hong Kong has flourished being the brokers between the East and the West. The pegged currency gave the country stability when it came to trade and investors. However, history shows that pegged currencies are disastrous in extreme conditions. This was the case in the Thai Bhat in 1997 and the Argentinian Peso in 2000. In the case of the Thai Bhat, Thailand was experiencing high levels of growth from 1992 onwards as banks loosened restrictions, causing a lending boom and inflated real estate prices. However, from 1995 onward, growth slowed, with investors increasingly worrying about the returns on their investments. This caused a massive capital outflow out of Thailand, devaluing the Thai Bhat. The government tried to prop up the currency by using its allocated $38B USD foreign reserves. However, in half a year from the start of 1997, their foreign reserves dropped 93% to $2.65B before they stopped the regime. The That Bhat subsequently depreciated against the USD, from 25 to 52 Thai Bhat per $1 USD, effectively abandoning the peg between the Bhat and the USD. Similarly, the Argentinian Peso shared the same fate Argentina’s government was citing the control of inflation as the reason for the currency peg. However, a multitude of socioeconomic factors such as an increase in income inequality and external shocks driving interest rates higher would see Argentina’s growing economy stall. With the Peso pegged to the USD 1:1, there was pressure for Argentina to keep the peg as most of its debt was denominated in U.S. dollars. However, restrictions on withdraws of 1000 Pesos/USD dollars pushed the sitting President, and the Minister of Economy resigned. The new finance minister imposed a new exchange rate of 1.4 to 1 U.S. dollar, however, what sealed the abandoning of the peg was when “pesification” of all the accounts in Argentina – which changed every single dollar that was in USD to Peso. This saw an increase in demand for the U.S. dollar – increasing the exchange rate from 1.4 pesos to 1 USD to around 4 Peso to 1 USD. Currently, 1 U.S. Dollar sits at 68 Argentinian Pesos. – Further reading, “Convertibility Law” What is the Catalyst for Hong Kong? It will require a multitude of events to occur at the same time. The Hong Kong protests, for the most part, have been mainly domestic, with geopolitical parties watching from the sidelines. However, with China putting its foot down and enforcing national security law, the eyes of democracy have caught attention. President Trump stated that “we are not happy with China” with Larry Kudlow stating that China has made a “huge mistake” in passing the national security regarding Hong Kong. Carrie Lam, the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, assures Hong Kong citizens that the law will not undermine the freedom Hong Kong citizens face. However, she is on the side for the law passing, stating that “regrettably, the current legal system and enforcement mechanism for Hong Kong to safeguard national security are inadequate or even ‘defenseless.’ Despite returning to the Motherland for 23 years, Hong Kong has yet to enact laws to curb acts and activities that seriously undermine national security.” Currently, Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority (HKMA) foreign reserve sits at around $441B U.S. dollar with Hong Kong using the Fed’s repo facility to its full advantage. The HKMA has the goal of pegging the currency between 7.75 – 7.85 HKD for 1 USD, and currently sits around the strong end of the band at 7.752 as the HKMA bolsters the strength of the HKD during the Coronavirus. This may be in anticipation of a devaluing in the currency because of the Coronavirus and domestic tensions. Tensions are slowly picking up, putting pressure on the peg. With the election on the horizon for Trump alongside China taking a strict stance against Hong Kong, fireworks may ensure as both sides battle it out. With Hong Kong directly in the firing line, all eyes are on what President Donald Trump imposes on Hong Kong tomorrow. The HKMA has enough foreign reserves to continue to prop up the HKD, given current circumstances. But the uncertainty with Hong Kong has finally started to settle in – not a feeling you want when your country was built on ensuring certainty and consistency within the Financial Markets. There is a chance that capital in Hong Kong talks themselves into pulling their money out of Hong Kong. If that occurs, the peg on the Hong Kong Dollar may serve the same fate as Thailand in 1997.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD Possible Short Term Rebound/Retracement UpwardRemembered this chart from my older idea? No much changes from the technical point of view but things do change around beyond technical and I just want to tell my good folks that I am a guy who go with the follow. Kinda like trend following trader you can take but I don't mean the overall reversal of trend on this major pair but just the personality I got during trading. It will be a foolish word to just say overall trend reversal as things need time to fully confirm the actual fact and it's not right time to say a pure reversal or not but I can say for now bearish have been weakening and we can see a slight retracement around 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at least. If better who knows 50% can also be possible but the price will need to break the weekly pivot point level plus breakout beyond the falling trendline (red). Thanks for reading my idea and I hope you enjoyed and if you think it added some value in your trading don't forget to support me by hitting a thumbs up button! (LIKE)
Long
by jessi061
4
USDJPY Retracement PossibilitiesWe have some room upward and technically this pair is trying to rebound from higher period SMA 200 RED (dynamic support). Fundamental wise we knew till this day that king didn't wanted to back off! I had earlier created a bullish bias idea on this major pair but I messed up with fast entry as overall I knew from the beginning this was mean to happen ( I mean the continuations upward). Dollar was hiding it's potential from the beginning and until it made mood to fall apart most of counter parts will suffer the pain I reckon.
Long
by jessi061
1
EURUSD BEARISH My analysis The dollar is the strongest currency with the strongest economy behind it. However due to recent NFP there has been a significant loss of jobs in the industry over 700k which is to be expected to be more in April NFP this due to the Virus pandemic which slows growth of all economies as its affecting all around the world. Worst Cases are Currently in USA with over 250k cases and the world total of a million Cases. We are currently waiting on the news for Eur Factory Orders which is on Monday. We can see patterns in this chart so i will be going short.
Short
by ogfenix3
30 Days Later – Italy vs. USAs the Coronavirus continues to spread throughout the globe without any cure or treatment, researchers have been left with nothing but data to help predict and counter the disease. This being a novel virus, even our data sets are tremendously lacking. We must make do with what we have, and 4 months into this global pandemic it seems that Italy has been taking the blunt of this disease; Creating a benchmark for other countries to compare. There are numerous articles out there comparing the United States to Italy, many of which only compare the total number of cases. Based on that factor alone, the US is in far worse shape than Italy being approximately 8 days behind on the outbreak. At the time of writing this article, Italy is at 110,574 cases while the US is nearly doubled at 209,071 cases of the COVID-19 virus. Comparing the two countries should not end at the total number of cases. There are far more ways to analyze the available data to see how the United States and other countries compare using Italy as a precedent. Population Factors One of the largest factors to consider are the two counties populations. Italy’s population is ~60.5 million people while the United states is over 5 times the size at about ~330 million. Right there you can see that comparing the two countries based on the number of cases is not enough. The case comparison above shows the total percentage of the country’s population affected by the coronavirus. Offsetting Italy by 8 days, you will see that the United States is fairing much better when it comes to the total percentage of the population affected. Using Italy as a precedent, Day 33 of the outbreak Italy was at 0.123% of their total population infected, while the United States was at 0.074%. Today Italy is at 0.19%. Transmission Rate Based on the total percentage of the population, the data shows that Italy is in far worse shape than the United States. However, this could change at any time based on how quickly the disease is spreading throughout each country and how each country manages the spread. The Transmission Rate is generated by the number of new cases each day compared to the day before. Looking at transmission rate data above, you can see that the United States has been greatly higher than Italy over the last two weeks. Though the US transmission rate seems to be dropping a considerable rate, it is still at 14.1% compared to Italy’s 4.2% which seems to be leveling off. Getting this factor as low as possible will be key to controlling the spread around the globe. Breaking the data down, the chart below shows the number of new COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths per day between Italy and the United States. Looking at this data we can determine that Italy’s number of new cases seems to be dropping each day from their peak on March 22. This shows that the measures the country is taking to battle the Coronavirus could be working. IF the United States similar measures as Italy, they should start to see a decline in the number of transmissions per day. “Flattening the curve” to say. Mortality Rate One of the scariest data sets to compare is the COVID-19’s mortality rate. Currently the United States has a 2.55% mortality rate which is well below the global average of 5.23%. These factors are based on confirmed cases and deaths. Italy, however, is at a whopping 12.25% mortality rate. Meaning more than 1 out of 10 people who contract the disease is expected to die. The most chilling thing about this is that all three averages have been increasing each day. Clearly after seeing these values we can see that the United States is fairing off much better than Italy for the time being. Knowing this, there are three major factors to consider: This data is based on ‘Confirmed’ cases and deaths. Meaning there could be numerous positive COVID-19 cases that have not been tested. Italy’s median age is significantly higher than the United States. Unfortunately, this disease is known to target older, immuno-compromised adults. The United States is 8 days behind Italy, meaning only a small percentage of the current Covid-19 cases have had time to mature enough to result in an outcome. Therefore it is possible to see a sudden increase in this value. Recovery Rate This data is petrifying, however, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Recovery rates around the world are on the rise. Currently it is estimated to take 2-3 weeks to recover from this disease, meaning the current data available is only a small reflection of what has yet to come. The chart below shows both Italy and the United States’ recovery rates as of today. Italy being 8 days ahead of the US, has a significantly higher recovery rate. Within the coming months I expect both values to increase greatly, better reflecting true recovery rate of COVID-19. I would like to thank TradingView for making the COVID-19 data available on their platform. This has allowed script writers like myself to break the data down, analyze, and share information through this global pandemic. During this global pandemic, there is limited information available on the COVID-19 disease itself. However one thing we do have is data; and we get more of this every day. The indicator referenced in this article will be made available to the public so that you can tract this data in real time. You will find it under the scripts tab on my profile page. *Case comparison is based on the previous days data.
D
by oh92
12
What's the next move for USDJPY?Hey everyone, as you can see on the chart, USDJPY is at a decent resistance, accompanied by 50 MA and the Gann fan. To me, this signals that we will soon see it bounce off either from our resistance area or the FIb Level, which I believe is more likely. (Also, just a disclaimer, I will try my best to keep you guys updated as if the uptrend is too hard we might form a W shape as well) Feel free to leave your feedback below (not a signal btw, just analysis) cheers, tonite
by tonite
4
EURUSD Probabilities Of RetracementIt can be a retracement finally after a long swing upward couple of days past due to the US under pressure from Covid-19. This might be changing positively slowly as the representative of the state is focusing on the comeback against the pandemic and they have already run much stimulus program for their economy prevention. Can't say it may be fully reversal but there could be some side effect on the currency after they have taken some control over the outbreak which may temporarily change the market sentiment.
Short
by jessi061
5
USD vs. CAD (NEW PATTERN)The USD price appreciation building up in the USDCAD pair has not yet unfolded, but when it does it will be a nice long USD trade (or short the CAD trade). Previously we identified a bullish flag on the weekly and monthly chart, but it looks like the flag is shaped a bit differently now that 2019 is behind us. Here are the new technical levels to watch. At the moment price seems to be transitioning from one trap zone to the next trap zone, but the battle lines are now clearly drawn. There will likely be some nice bullish action in this pair by the end of 2020, so don't forget to bookmark it!
Long
by Trader6127
1
Pricing in Aussi/Greenback retracement!! Small swing setup.Expectations are for the RBA to hold on to any further rate cuts, for now, so the big action is likely to come only if there is a surprise rate cut from the current overnight interest rate of 0.75 percent. After the RBA event, AUD / USD may fall into a "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" situation as an interest-rate holding might have been pre-priced. Negative geopolitical headlines (e.g. negativity of trade between the United States and China) may help this retracement to form which should be taken care throughout the weak. TP: 38.20% Fibo Retracement.
Short
by jessi061