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FX News: Dollar Steady as Jackson Hole LoomsFX News – After some cautious trading on Wednesday, the dollar is now hovering near three-week highs. Focus still remains on the Jackson Hole meeting this coming weekend. The Federal Reserve slashed rates last month, the first time since 2008. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the move was a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Forex markets are betting on further rate cuts before the year ends. The expectations lie on heightened trade tensions and sluggish global economic growth. The US dollar index is near 98.17 as it gained 0.12% in the previous session. Last Tuesday, the greenback reached 98.33, which was its highest since August 1. According to market analysts, US President Donald Trump has a “strong desire” for deep cuts. This could raise traders’ hopes for strong easing signals at Jackson Hole. Deep Cuts in Jackson Hole? Over the weekend, major central bankers are going to meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, including Powell. FX news and market participants will focus on the information they can glean from the Fed commentary in Wyoming. The meeting comes after weeks of limited public appearances. The speech that Powell will make would be the first public comments since slashing interest rates last month. This year, the theme is “challenges for monetary policy.” Forex markets would wait for the Fed Chairman to address short-term challenge of whether or not the Fed needs deep rate cuts. Such rate cuts could serve to counter the unpleasant effects of the trade war and global risks. Meanwhile, G7 leaders will also hold their own meeting over the weekend and on Monday. This includes President Donald Trump, and it will happen in French resort Biarritz. Both Jackson Hole and Biarritz meetings will focus on global outlook that suffers from the aggressive trade war.
by Financebroker
Argentina Financial Crisis Fears ArisesFears once again loomed all over Argentina in a financial crisis rushing to the fore. And over the weekend, President Mauricio Macri had a stunning rout in the primary elections. At the same time, investors dropped its bonds, stocks, and currency en masse in a selloff. And it left Wall Street thinking that the crisis-prone country will have another default. In addition to that, the upset is widely seen as a preview of the presidential vote in October. And it suddenly opens the doors to the possibility of a more protectionist government will take power come December. Also, it might untangle the hard-won gains that Macri build-up to retrieve international markets’ trust. Then, it intensified worries Alberto Fernandez, his populist rival, and Cristina Fernandez, his running mate, will attempt to renegotiate its debts and agreements with the International Monetary Fund. In the coming year, the foreign-currency billion debt is due. Edwin Gutierrez is the head of emerging-market sovereign debt at Aberdeen Asset Management. And he stated, “The market is starting to price in default” and it “is unwilling to give Fernandez the benefit of the doubt.” Debt Payments of Argentina Meanwhile, looking at the credit-default swaps, it suggests that traders are expecting a 75% likelihood that Argentina will suspend its debt payments for about five years. Last Friday, this chance was only about 49%. Then, its dollar-denominated government bonds wiped out about 25% on average. As a result, it dragged down prices to as low as 55 cents on the dollar. Yields, on the other hand, on shorter-maturity notes surged above 35%. Moreover, in Argentina, the peso tumbled as high as 25%, hitting a new record-low 60 per dollar on Monday. Also, the Merval stock index had the most lost in the intraday trading. On Sunday, Macri expected to trail his rival by just a few points and pummeled the polls, with Fernandez in a 15-point lead.
by Financebroker
2
DXY looking to continue south to 94??To whoever sees this.. Always watching the dollar. IMO it is in charge! Up or down I don't place a trade on a correlated pair without having an idea of where the dollar is and could be potentially heading. A few scenarios i see playing out all to the short side. Going into Monday I think we will see is slowly trickle upwards Not sure when or even if we will see a half decent retracement from last weeks slight melt but the two zones marked are where I will be watching closely for a continuation to the downside. 97.75 may be to aggressive but depsnds on where we open at. If not 98-98.50ish is the area im watching. Break of that and you can scratch all of this. You already see the targets. Not crazy. 95 is my more conservative target but 94 is ultimately where i see this heading. Thoughts? Think were going long still? Please share your thoughts! wikr - smokeraws45
TVC:DXYShort
by daswagking
Peak Resorts soars up 112.75% !!Peak Resorts, a company responsible for operating ski resorts in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, United States soars up by 112.75%. This sudden rise has been caused from a company called Vali Resorts NYSE:MTN , in which will acquire Peak Resorts for $11.00 a share. Peak Resorts is currently trading at 10.85 from the time this has published and is speculated to reach up to 11.00. Therefore this is a perfect opportunity to buy long. It is assumed that all shareholders are happy with the decision. Peak Resorts in comparison to Vali Resorts is far larger and has gained larger revenue within the same similar time period that both companies began, in 1997.
SLong
by bailey707
USDUAH | Still on WatchlistThe hryvnia (UAH) continues to trade sideways while in consolidation in the "no trade zone." Recently, the currency strengthened against the dollar (USD) and initially it looked like an opportunity to go long on the USD. However, the weekly EMA50 (which historically has provided support for the USD) turned into resistance, broke the 3 year trendline, and now we are heading toward the 61.8 Fibo. Above the 61.8 Fibo the USD is still bullish. Below the 61.8 Fibo we have a bit more neutrality with support close at the weekly EMA200 (good place to hedge UAH and/or go long USD).
Long
by Trader6127
1
USD at strong support level against the CADThe USD is currently sitting at a very strong support level against the CAD. EMA50 is also above EMA200 on the daily and weekly. Keep in mind that, technically, the pair is in a "no trade zone." The Canadian economy is also experiencing a number of acute deteriorations vs. the US economy that could put pressure on bank balance sheets in Canada. Increasing non-performing loans in Canada could lead to currency devaluation. The Bank of Canada's inflation targeting also revolves, at least partially, around currency devaluation (a kind of "beggar thy neighbour").
Long
by Trader6127
Panic if SPX500 Does not Bust Through Record HighsNot a perfect pattern, but few are. If the SPX500 does not reach record highs and does not go beyond those record highs with strong conviction, then it will suffer from the exact same chart pattern DJI did right before the 2008 Financial Crisis. If price action starts to move down then we would be witnessing a large head and shoulders pattern right into a financial crash or at the very least a large correction. We already know a recession is coming sometime in the upcoming year, but the question is when. However, that does not mean I am saying this pattern will form. I'm just saying its possible. And if it starts to form, be very very careful. Also by the way, volume is super f word low right now probably indicating most traders are skeptical as to why they should buy at such high levels. It is the second lowest level of volume since 2006 with the lowest level of volume since 2006 only occurring last year. Big red flag guys and gals. Too expensive for many. Expect institutional traders to attempt to unload their positions that they too believe are probably too expensive.
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
A Glimpse of Hopes For AsiaBi-Weekly Review on Strait Times Index (March 2019 - April 2019) - Singapore Stocks start the week higher on this monday (April 1) with advancing 19.18 points points, or 0.6 per cent - Markets are bullish but the volatility is higher for the past 2 weeks - Market Catalyst affect several area : Australia, Japan, South Korea, China and Hong Kong - Most active stocks for today (April 2): Thomson Medical, Hi-P , and Sembcorp Marine - There is a huge certain amount of uncertainty due to geopolitical and growth outlook The Most Important Factors to be Considered - There is not much on global macro for past two weeks - Market Catalyst mostly caused by high level trade negotiations between U.S. and China - Manufacturing growth rise unexpectedly for these week during this march-april after hit a bottom before march - On the other hand factory activity in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan continues to shrink, leading to bullish expectation on industrial index - Most of emerging country still depends on China demand - They also suffers from U.S.-China tariff war and Brexit uncertainty - China should embrace financial risk in order to ameliorate asia supply chains - Interest rates need to be more accomodative especially Indonesia and Thailand - Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) expected to be continue to expand in this months - Policymakers across Asia continue to look for a way together to stabilize growh (policy easing will be expected for several months ahead)
TVC:STIShort
by RazqiMK
V Bottom Bull Signal ?V bottoms are bull signals that suggest follow through to the up side if driven through resistance. Clearly, that's what we've seen over the past few weeks, but resistance breakthrough is not too strong. Moreover, we are seeing a number of minor pull backs without strong conviction beyond resistance. Fundamentals are key to SPX500 as well, so don't get bogged down in singular signals, but use that as a part of a larger strategy. For instance, stochastic tells us to expect a pull back, but the volatility of this oscillator suggests it could be brief which is the benefit of the stochastic. Finally, I have the Sharpe rolling oscillator which tells you if the asset is outperforming its year to date returns given a risk free 3 month return. As of right now, SPX500 is just barely doing this. Good luck trading out there ladies and gents. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
SPX Sideways Move Absolutely PossibleI'm not saying its going to happen, but many fundies point to indecision. There's little motivating force behind breaking through previous all-time highs. Trade war resolution? Probably not since after US-China, Trump may take on the EU and Japan with auto tariffs. If that goes down, he could easily tip us into recession. At the end of the day, speculative appetite is based on growth which is in generally slowing. Yield curve inversion reminds us we are close to the end. Could be a year out, could be a month out, but either way its coming. You can't time the market and you probably won't sell at the perfect time. Most investors know this and probably don't want to go deep into US equities or world equities for that matter if they know within a year or so they'll be able to buy everything much cheaper. Credit loan swaps remind us of the derivative perils of 2008 with much corporate debt grouped together creating uncertainty over the quality of specific loans. In short, theres many more reasons to e a bear than a bull. Because of this, I could understand a move sideways for several months and then a significant correction and possible recession. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
SPX500 MAs All Show Buy, Most Oscillators Are NeutralIf you're a momentum trading loving moving averages, US indexes, particularly the SPX500 is for you. If you're more an oscillator guy, then its understandable how frustrated you may be lately. That said, we could be looking at former resistance as support, but we havn't yet touched previous resistance for this to be the case yet. Although, we are staying above it at least. This is good news, but don't look at fundies if you want a more positive note. I'm neutral with the oscillators then, but the chart its mostly the rosy picture. Good luck with your trades boys and girls. If you want more analysis and charts, check out my other content at www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
SP:SPX
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
GBP/JPY... What is going on??!!The Pound against the Yen has been short for roughly around the beginning of November and puts pressure for the yen over the new year. From research, this pair may continue to go down, and here is why. Firstly, the Nikkei 225 has significantly dropped by 17.53% from the 2nd of October to the 28th of December. Reasoning behind this is due to other variables affecting the yen such as the US and China trade war which gives concerning to what Japan may have to face when they trade with the United States on new policies. Especially since Japan is the 4th largest trading partner with the United States, rallying up on $204.1 Billion in 2017. Britain on the other hand is more focused on Brexit, for those who do not know, Britain is wanting to leave the EU for more tougher immigration laws in order to strengthen the safety of the citizens from terrorism. There are many other reasons but this is the main highlight of why. Some people in Britain do not agree with some of the new policies and laws that the government is trying to put in place, including trade. Confident votes have been used in the government but Theresa May (current prime minister) still has passed in the votes. Overall, both countries are in the downside at the current moment and we will have to see what 2019 awaits for us all but this evidentially results in a short sell position for short and long term. Happy New Year everyone!
Short
by bailey707