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EURUSD BEARISH My analysis The dollar is the strongest currency with the strongest economy behind it. However due to recent NFP there has been a significant loss of jobs in the industry over 700k which is to be expected to be more in April NFP this due to the Virus pandemic which slows growth of all economies as its affecting all around the world. Worst Cases are Currently in USA with over 250k cases and the world total of a million Cases. We are currently waiting on the news for Eur Factory Orders which is on Monday. We can see patterns in this chart so i will be going short.
Short
by ogfenix3
30 Days Later – Italy vs. USAs the Coronavirus continues to spread throughout the globe without any cure or treatment, researchers have been left with nothing but data to help predict and counter the disease. This being a novel virus, even our data sets are tremendously lacking. We must make do with what we have, and 4 months into this global pandemic it seems that Italy has been taking the blunt of this disease; Creating a benchmark for other countries to compare. There are numerous articles out there comparing the United States to Italy, many of which only compare the total number of cases. Based on that factor alone, the US is in far worse shape than Italy being approximately 8 days behind on the outbreak. At the time of writing this article, Italy is at 110,574 cases while the US is nearly doubled at 209,071 cases of the COVID-19 virus. Comparing the two countries should not end at the total number of cases. There are far more ways to analyze the available data to see how the United States and other countries compare using Italy as a precedent. Population Factors One of the largest factors to consider are the two counties populations. Italy’s population is ~60.5 million people while the United states is over 5 times the size at about ~330 million. Right there you can see that comparing the two countries based on the number of cases is not enough. The case comparison above shows the total percentage of the country’s population affected by the coronavirus. Offsetting Italy by 8 days, you will see that the United States is fairing much better when it comes to the total percentage of the population affected. Using Italy as a precedent, Day 33 of the outbreak Italy was at 0.123% of their total population infected, while the United States was at 0.074%. Today Italy is at 0.19%. Transmission Rate Based on the total percentage of the population, the data shows that Italy is in far worse shape than the United States. However, this could change at any time based on how quickly the disease is spreading throughout each country and how each country manages the spread. The Transmission Rate is generated by the number of new cases each day compared to the day before. Looking at transmission rate data above, you can see that the United States has been greatly higher than Italy over the last two weeks. Though the US transmission rate seems to be dropping a considerable rate, it is still at 14.1% compared to Italy’s 4.2% which seems to be leveling off. Getting this factor as low as possible will be key to controlling the spread around the globe. Breaking the data down, the chart below shows the number of new COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths per day between Italy and the United States. Looking at this data we can determine that Italy’s number of new cases seems to be dropping each day from their peak on March 22. This shows that the measures the country is taking to battle the Coronavirus could be working. IF the United States similar measures as Italy, they should start to see a decline in the number of transmissions per day. “Flattening the curve” to say. Mortality Rate One of the scariest data sets to compare is the COVID-19’s mortality rate. Currently the United States has a 2.55% mortality rate which is well below the global average of 5.23%. These factors are based on confirmed cases and deaths. Italy, however, is at a whopping 12.25% mortality rate. Meaning more than 1 out of 10 people who contract the disease is expected to die. The most chilling thing about this is that all three averages have been increasing each day. Clearly after seeing these values we can see that the United States is fairing off much better than Italy for the time being. Knowing this, there are three major factors to consider: This data is based on ‘Confirmed’ cases and deaths. Meaning there could be numerous positive COVID-19 cases that have not been tested. Italy’s median age is significantly higher than the United States. Unfortunately, this disease is known to target older, immuno-compromised adults. The United States is 8 days behind Italy, meaning only a small percentage of the current Covid-19 cases have had time to mature enough to result in an outcome. Therefore it is possible to see a sudden increase in this value. Recovery Rate This data is petrifying, however, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Recovery rates around the world are on the rise. Currently it is estimated to take 2-3 weeks to recover from this disease, meaning the current data available is only a small reflection of what has yet to come. The chart below shows both Italy and the United States’ recovery rates as of today. Italy being 8 days ahead of the US, has a significantly higher recovery rate. Within the coming months I expect both values to increase greatly, better reflecting true recovery rate of COVID-19. I would like to thank TradingView for making the COVID-19 data available on their platform. This has allowed script writers like myself to break the data down, analyze, and share information through this global pandemic. During this global pandemic, there is limited information available on the COVID-19 disease itself. However one thing we do have is data; and we get more of this every day. The indicator referenced in this article will be made available to the public so that you can tract this data in real time. You will find it under the scripts tab on my profile page. *Case comparison is based on the previous days data.
D
by oh92
12
What's the next move for USDJPY?Hey everyone, as you can see on the chart, USDJPY is at a decent resistance, accompanied by 50 MA and the Gann fan. To me, this signals that we will soon see it bounce off either from our resistance area or the FIb Level, which I believe is more likely. (Also, just a disclaimer, I will try my best to keep you guys updated as if the uptrend is too hard we might form a W shape as well) Feel free to leave your feedback below (not a signal btw, just analysis) cheers, tonite
by tonite
4
EURUSD Probabilities Of RetracementIt can be a retracement finally after a long swing upward couple of days past due to the US under pressure from Covid-19. This might be changing positively slowly as the representative of the state is focusing on the comeback against the pandemic and they have already run much stimulus program for their economy prevention. Can't say it may be fully reversal but there could be some side effect on the currency after they have taken some control over the outbreak which may temporarily change the market sentiment.
Short
by Anatta0
5
USD vs. CAD (NEW PATTERN)The USD price appreciation building up in the USDCAD pair has not yet unfolded, but when it does it will be a nice long USD trade (or short the CAD trade). Previously we identified a bullish flag on the weekly and monthly chart, but it looks like the flag is shaped a bit differently now that 2019 is behind us. Here are the new technical levels to watch. At the moment price seems to be transitioning from one trap zone to the next trap zone, but the battle lines are now clearly drawn. There will likely be some nice bullish action in this pair by the end of 2020, so don't forget to bookmark it!
Long
by Trader6127
1
Pricing in Aussi/Greenback retracement!! Small swing setup.Expectations are for the RBA to hold on to any further rate cuts, for now, so the big action is likely to come only if there is a surprise rate cut from the current overnight interest rate of 0.75 percent. After the RBA event, AUD / USD may fall into a "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" situation as an interest-rate holding might have been pre-priced. Negative geopolitical headlines (e.g. negativity of trade between the United States and China) may help this retracement to form which should be taken care throughout the weak. TP: 38.20% Fibo Retracement.
Short
by Anatta0
In Soviet Russia, Money Buys YOU! - (USDRUB)Hello Traders! The Ruble has been in a steady uptrend for a while now. It's no secret that Russian debt, lowest of developed nations (Roughly $200B) is so low now that Russia claims to have enough cash on hand to cover their debts completely. After the last Russian economic crisis, policies under Putin have sought to eliminate debt and generate faith in the economy. I believe strong fundamentals combined with positive technicals create here a wonderful long opportunity! We can start layering in immediately. Even TD9 shows an imminent buy opportunity. Be careful of manipulation! Stay safe and good luck traders.
Long
by vox-populi
FX News: Dollar Steady as Jackson Hole LoomsFX News – After some cautious trading on Wednesday, the dollar is now hovering near three-week highs. Focus still remains on the Jackson Hole meeting this coming weekend. The Federal Reserve slashed rates last month, the first time since 2008. According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the move was a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Forex markets are betting on further rate cuts before the year ends. The expectations lie on heightened trade tensions and sluggish global economic growth. The US dollar index is near 98.17 as it gained 0.12% in the previous session. Last Tuesday, the greenback reached 98.33, which was its highest since August 1. According to market analysts, US President Donald Trump has a “strong desire” for deep cuts. This could raise traders’ hopes for strong easing signals at Jackson Hole. Deep Cuts in Jackson Hole? Over the weekend, major central bankers are going to meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, including Powell. FX news and market participants will focus on the information they can glean from the Fed commentary in Wyoming. The meeting comes after weeks of limited public appearances. The speech that Powell will make would be the first public comments since slashing interest rates last month. This year, the theme is “challenges for monetary policy.” Forex markets would wait for the Fed Chairman to address short-term challenge of whether or not the Fed needs deep rate cuts. Such rate cuts could serve to counter the unpleasant effects of the trade war and global risks. Meanwhile, G7 leaders will also hold their own meeting over the weekend and on Monday. This includes President Donald Trump, and it will happen in French resort Biarritz. Both Jackson Hole and Biarritz meetings will focus on global outlook that suffers from the aggressive trade war.
by Financebroker
Argentina Financial Crisis Fears ArisesFears once again loomed all over Argentina in a financial crisis rushing to the fore. And over the weekend, President Mauricio Macri had a stunning rout in the primary elections. At the same time, investors dropped its bonds, stocks, and currency en masse in a selloff. And it left Wall Street thinking that the crisis-prone country will have another default. In addition to that, the upset is widely seen as a preview of the presidential vote in October. And it suddenly opens the doors to the possibility of a more protectionist government will take power come December. Also, it might untangle the hard-won gains that Macri build-up to retrieve international markets’ trust. Then, it intensified worries Alberto Fernandez, his populist rival, and Cristina Fernandez, his running mate, will attempt to renegotiate its debts and agreements with the International Monetary Fund. In the coming year, the foreign-currency billion debt is due. Edwin Gutierrez is the head of emerging-market sovereign debt at Aberdeen Asset Management. And he stated, “The market is starting to price in default” and it “is unwilling to give Fernandez the benefit of the doubt.” Debt Payments of Argentina Meanwhile, looking at the credit-default swaps, it suggests that traders are expecting a 75% likelihood that Argentina will suspend its debt payments for about five years. Last Friday, this chance was only about 49%. Then, its dollar-denominated government bonds wiped out about 25% on average. As a result, it dragged down prices to as low as 55 cents on the dollar. Yields, on the other hand, on shorter-maturity notes surged above 35%. Moreover, in Argentina, the peso tumbled as high as 25%, hitting a new record-low 60 per dollar on Monday. Also, the Merval stock index had the most lost in the intraday trading. On Sunday, Macri expected to trail his rival by just a few points and pummeled the polls, with Fernandez in a 15-point lead.
by Financebroker
2
DXY looking to continue south to 94??To whoever sees this.. Always watching the dollar. IMO it is in charge! Up or down I don't place a trade on a correlated pair without having an idea of where the dollar is and could be potentially heading. A few scenarios i see playing out all to the short side. Going into Monday I think we will see is slowly trickle upwards Not sure when or even if we will see a half decent retracement from last weeks slight melt but the two zones marked are where I will be watching closely for a continuation to the downside. 97.75 may be to aggressive but depsnds on where we open at. If not 98-98.50ish is the area im watching. Break of that and you can scratch all of this. You already see the targets. Not crazy. 95 is my more conservative target but 94 is ultimately where i see this heading. Thoughts? Think were going long still? Please share your thoughts! wikr - smokeraws45
TVC:DXYShort
by daswagking
Peak Resorts soars up 112.75% !!Peak Resorts, a company responsible for operating ski resorts in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, United States soars up by 112.75%. This sudden rise has been caused from a company called Vali Resorts NYSE:MTN , in which will acquire Peak Resorts for $11.00 a share. Peak Resorts is currently trading at 10.85 from the time this has published and is speculated to reach up to 11.00. Therefore this is a perfect opportunity to buy long. It is assumed that all shareholders are happy with the decision. Peak Resorts in comparison to Vali Resorts is far larger and has gained larger revenue within the same similar time period that both companies began, in 1997.
SLong
by bailey707
USDUAH | Still on WatchlistThe hryvnia (UAH) continues to trade sideways while in consolidation in the "no trade zone." Recently, the currency strengthened against the dollar (USD) and initially it looked like an opportunity to go long on the USD. However, the weekly EMA50 (which historically has provided support for the USD) turned into resistance, broke the 3 year trendline, and now we are heading toward the 61.8 Fibo. Above the 61.8 Fibo the USD is still bullish. Below the 61.8 Fibo we have a bit more neutrality with support close at the weekly EMA200 (good place to hedge UAH and/or go long USD).
Long
by Trader6127
1