BOIL / GUSH RATIO- Leverage 3X Natural Gas ETFsAMEX:BOIL
BOIL is the #X leveraged ETF for Natural Gas while KOLD is it inverse.
On this 30M chart I setup the ration between BOIL and KOLD.
This is to find precise swing entries without a lot of work for those only trading part time like myself.
At the highs, BOIL has peaked relative to KOLDAccordingly, this is the time to exit BOIL and enter a position
on KOLD. Conversely, when the ratio is at an inflection bottom, a trader should exit KOLD
and enter a BOIL position.
This chart shows several patterns including:
a double or triple top which may breakdown as there is a newer cup and handle potentially breaking
out above the handle in continuation of the prior uptrend. It the present chart, the Bollinger Band basis line
the uptrending of its boundaries and the MACD all favor the probability of an uptrend., the spot markeri
All in all, I am waiting to buy BOIL since natural gas is being liquified and shipped to Europe to
make electric power to supply to air conditioner for the long hot summer. XNGUSD has had dramatic
action in the past couple of months, all good for BOIL's price action.
Three evening stars or three-bar plays marked with red down arrows.
If not in a position at present, the chart should be observed for the cup and handle pattern completion
towards a resumption of the uptrend. IF so, a BOIL position could be entered.
If it fails the triple top controls the price action and
a KOLD position could be entered.
This chart demonstrates the importance of looking for patterns to help guide
higher probability setup.
UNL
Winter is Coming - Long UNLAs this terrible war grinds on, Europe and Asia are getting ready for winter by restocking inventories in the face of a supply squeeze caused by EU and US sanctions. Years of under investment in the sector due to political/ESG concerns combined with the sector's past corporate mismanagement making investors doubly wary has led to insufficient infrastructure in place to meet demand. Given the recent pullback from the recent highs and a positive testing of support, I feel now is the time to enter a position at this level with a timeframe of 9-10 months for my thesis to play out.
UNL is the vehicle to express my trade thesis because it avoids the risks of contango by using a 3 expiry framework instead of simple following the most current NG contract which can create contango risk at rollover.
Entry: $23.32 This is the avg of 3 tranches spread out from the $22.50 - 26.50 price levels. Today's price puke back down to support at $22.65 was the last fill. I am a swing trader and will be allowing this to run until spring. I will be selling covered calls throughout. I want to let this fish run with the line, so I may or may not sell parts of the position at major price levels. We are in market conditions where the price may not have much of an upper bound until demand eases in the spring.
I will update as this trade develops.
Good luck and god speed.
NATURAL GAS EXPLOSIVE ACCUMULATIONNatural gas has been under pressure for quite some time. As a whole, the energy sector has been beaten down severely and is historically cheap. I do not believe this will last. We can certainly have another big drop and even take out March lows but I wouldn't count on it. There are some BIG BIG BIG changes heading our way and we will look back on these days and regret not paying closer attention to energy.. Look at what's cheap.. look at what's expensive.
BTW, we're at a critical junction here. There's a 3x hidden bear divergence that has been respected on weekly timeframe. I think this could push price lower. I sure hope so. But big picture is wildly explosive.
here's a chart on XLE to XLK (energy compared to tech). What do you think is the better deal?
the coming wave$ung $ugaz $dgaz $boil $kold $unl $gaz
I'm gearing up for the next cycle.I wouldn't be surprised to see a deeper flush. Be careful with leveraged ETF's even though they appear cheap. We don't know how low this can go..take a look at what happened to oil etf's as oil went to zero and below. what strange times we live in.
$ung $ugaz $boil - Nat gas setting up for yet another rallyRecently, we warned that Natural Gas may set up another opportunity for traders to buy into a support zone below $2.70 with a selling range near or above $3.00. Our upside target zone is between $3.25 and $3.45. The price of Natural Gas has recently fallen below $2.69 and we believe this could be the start of a setup for skilled traders to identify key buying opportunity in preparation for a quick +8% to +15% upside swing.
Historically, March and April have been pretty solid months for Natural Gas. Let’s go over the historical data using three different seasonality charts which all point to higher prices.
Taking a look at the data, above for both March and April it appears we should have a positive price outcome over the next 20+ trading sessions. Thus, we can determine that the likelihood of a positive price swing between now and the end of April is highly likely.
When we take a look at the chart data to see how our BUY and SELL zones are setting up, it becomes clear that any opportunity to BUY into the lower support channel, with a moderate degree of risk, could result in a very nice profit potential of between $0.35 to $0.70 on data that supports the Bullish potential as a 200%~220% advantage over downside potential.
Take a look at the data that we are presenting and try to understand that these types of historical price triggers are not foolproof, yet they do provide a clear advantage. They allow us to see if and when there is any type of advantage to our decision making and if we can identify any real opportunity for future success. We believe any further downside price activity in Natural Gas will result in additional opportunities for Long trades with $2.45 being our absolute low entry target. Our upside exit target would be any level above $2.95, or higher, and our ultimate target objective would be $3.15 or higher. Our last trade in natural gas (UGAZ) gave us 30% return in just two weeks in February!
This could be another opportunity for a trader to target a quick 8% to 15% swing trade in Natural Gas over the next 20+ days. Time to put Natural Gas on your radar again!
Are you ready for this next move? Want to know how we can help you find and execute better trades? Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to get our, technical indicators, market analysis, daily videos and trade alerts.
Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.
Falling Price Into Critical Support = Opportunity/BounceThese plays happen all the time if you are looking for them. The weekly charts provide amazing opportunities, the key is to find these standout support or resistance areas and wait for the price to fall fast and hard to them, or spike in price into resistance. The FIRST time price tags the level you should be entering a trade for at MINIMUM an intraday reversal, but with the weekly chart, setup expects a couple of weeks for the swing trade to play out.