Macro Monday 60 Japanese Yen Recession Signal If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit this chart at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have hit any Yen recessionary trigger levels. Very handy to have at a glance. The Chart The chart illustrates how the Japanese Yen / U.S. Dollar has followed a similar trajectory as...
Macro Monday 58 Recession Charts Worth Watching If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit these charts at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have hit any recessionary trigger levels. They are very handy to have at a glance. CHART 1 10 - 2 year treasury yield spread vs U.S. Unemployment Rate Subject chart above ...
Macro Monday 14 US Employment Rate Pre-Recession Indications The Unemployment Rate tells us how many people in the United States are currently without a job and actively looking for one. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates and reports the unemployment rate. In basic terms it consists of the following; Survey: The Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Unemployment is tricky. You just cannot announce high unemployment. The political damage is too much to take. But unfortunately, the time comes when unemployment just increases... Every sane person would want the economy to remain calm for as long as possible. This is not sinister or bad. After all, it is in the duty of Governments and Central Banks to keep our...
In this video, I explain what to expect in the months ahead, following the Fed's pivot back to monetary easing. Also, I wanted to make several notes: When I said that it's almost never better to own derivatives than holding an asset outright, I do realize the importance that derivatives can play with leverage and risk management. When I said that fear is...
Today, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to...
I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets. I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil...
So as you see - what comes down, must go up - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE is at record lows right now and when it did that - after some consolidation - it sttarted to grow - each time this happened, SPX entered a bear market. Calculating the amount of days since the breakout of the UNRATE trend - it is a range of ~ 100 to 400 days before starting the decline on SPX -...
Low levels of unemployment normally mean that the economy is at its best and that all companies are fully hired and investors have been investing a lot to grow businesses. The danger is overinvesting and a very competitive environment which backslash in this euporic low levels of unemployment. These are well correlated to economies topping as the tipping point...
Dates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low
In UNRATE Chart there is a worked bullish Gartley Pattern. FRED:UNRATE
This primary indicator just flashed a huge warning signal. Looking like its time to sell and take profits on the enormous post GFC rally. Note - keep a close watch on weekly claims in the coming weeks. We still want a little bit more confirmation of this rising before jumping to conclusions about the direction of unemployment, but I do not take this cross...
It will happen, the window is getting narrow every single day.
Something I am thinking about, I really like this as an indicator for when to short the market. I really expect this to break down in 2019 and fall through the long term support. I think In December or January there could be a backtest of the longterm support line.
The Bearish Divergence already started. We have like almost 2 years or a year and a half. Somewhere around there. Will be interesting to see how low she goes. I think I will load up on some E-MINI shorts in the beginning of 2021. Would like to see a president that wants to legalize it as well one day. Peace out to all my homies and home we can all make some money...
A lot of people are thinking the recession and crash in the equities markets will start this year. I beg to differ. Gold is in accumulation and so is bitcoin. I think both assets will rally up to their previous highs within the next two years and when the market crashes in 2022-23 that is when gold and bitcoin will dump around 40-50% with equities. There is...
Cross = very negative, and typically occurs during a fed rate cutting cycle. These often top-tick markets, and this has been a very reliable indicator across all the bull and bear markets for quite some time. Note - I use ICSA because despite it being noisy, it's actually a cleaner data series when you just smooth it with a moving average (I use EMA). It's not...
Today's read (not accounted for in this chart) is starting to make this a bit worrying. ICSA rising again week over week, threatening to break momentum. ICSA is a noisy indicator, but if you simply add smoothing with a moving average calculation, it becomes a better version of the unemployment rate. I say it's better because it's not subject to data issues such as...