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S&P 500 Short set-up from hereS&P 500 Index SPX500 The last short got stopped out at even - right idea, wrong double top. Now it's fallen below the parallel that's been guiding this impulse wave since summer lows...it's trying to make a feeble counter-rally back to kiss the underside of the lower parallel before it falls away again to 2566-2564 range where it should make a rally attempt to form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern now forming here. Sell from 2580 or as close to as possible with stop above 2583 for 3 point loss if wrong...once 2564 breaks after a first bounce from there of up to 11 points back to 2573-2577 range it should fall again at least back to 2564 and then when that fails to 2541. Two short trades here worth following
FX:SPX500Short
by sumastardon
Brent Crude Oil: UKOIL Still not too late to short BrentBrent Crude Oil UKOIL Update Had to update this position via original comment whilst embargo was still on, repeated here (sic): Hva etaken a short position with tight stop at 64.72 but ready to reverse, as above. High so far 64.62 - close but not hit yet. That has proved to be the high so far as the Opec meeting gathered. Still don't think it's too late here to short. It should come off all the way down to the lower parallel at around the 60 mark for 370 pips from here, but the first downside target is 61.67, still good for 200 pips here, give or take. Am lowering the stop now to 64.30 to get out with about 15 pips profit if it goes wrong from here. But sell just before the meeting worked very well last time, so hope we see the same kind of result this time too.
FX:UKOILShort
by sumastardon
5
Nasdaq Biotech: NBI A good low risk buy point coming up tomorrowNASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY INDEX: NBI A good low risk Buy Point Coming Up Range trading between the parallels continues as it has done since last year's election low. It' looks like it should fall back to 3267 where it becomes a buy again with stops just under 3250. It should make a strong rally from here back up to 3575 for about 300 points gain, with the first level of resistance at 3344 (close out first long here). A subsequent move above 3344 will be very positive for this index, taking up to 3435-3444 range before it falls away to 3380 at which point it should move higher to the 3575 target - at which point it becomes a short again If this long call from 3266 is wrong, it means that the lower parallel that has guided this up-wave from inception is also failing, an extremely bearish outcome should the stop at 3245 fail, signalling a move back to 3168-3148 range (and a complete reversal of positions into near-term shorts) where this index becomes a strong buy again.
NLong
by sumastardon
Monero next leg up !Monero has been testing resistance against 100$ and from the looks of it Monero is growing in popularity with a growing user base, a surge in searches on Google trends and a number of pro Monero articles surfacing in the past few days. It looks set to go up again and potentially may retest its previous highs. As Bitcoiners look for a place to hedge their bets Monero becomes an increasingly enticing place once more research is done. Monero having no marketing budget that most coins use to pump their price and having superior technology has found itself severely undervalued, its only a matter of time before the new money coming into Bitcoin educate themselves on what makes Bitcoin truly valuable and find that same thing intensified in Monero.
Long
by Emperor_Penguin
Ibex Index: looking to go long again here for 800 points upside IBEX Index: IBEX 35 Update After getting long on the break above 10470 we got stopped out at 10525 for a small 55 point profit... Now this index has come back down to the breakout zone once more for what should be one last kiss before the rally recommences. It should find support between current values at 10362 and about 55 points lower, at 10310 at lowest... (same amount as recent win on this index) off the upper parallel. So am looking to go long again from the 10362-10310 range with a stop just under 10300, looking for a move back up to the highs at 11168 (about 800 points) between now and early spring 2018. So about 60 points downside risk and 800 points upside if it works out...
TVC:IBEX35Long
by sumastardon
GOLD: XAUUSD Intermediate Double bottom established- long set-upGOLD: XAUUSD Been stooging around waiting for gold to come up to 1281-1283 range before shorting it - it came within 25 pips or so below here but never struck the sell zone before it fell away...now it's approaching the sell zone again but recent price action, helped by the Fed decision to hold off on another rate rise until December means that a short here is no longer nearly so enticing from that 1281-3 range. It's broken through the upper parallel and made a higher intermediate high...bullish, not bearish price action, obviously. Obvious enough to require a change of tack... So, the past week's price action has changed the technical picture from bearish to bullish and whilst it can still fail one last time at the original 1281-3 sell zone, granted, it won't come back very far by look of chart. Am more interested now in buying at 1274ish with a stop 3 dollars lower, or, if that doesn't happen, once 1283 is cleared by 50 pips or so on upside with a stop a couple or 3 dollars lower, ideally just under 1281. Minimum upside target at 1303 if triggered.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by sumastardon
USDJPY: Time to close any last longs and and reverse positionsUSDJPY The breakout to the upside never materialised. The upside target for USD longs here was at the 114.30-114.50 range. Frustratingly the high on Thursday was 2 pips shy of the lower end at 114.30. Close, but no cigar. Hope you were still able to get out close to the top though. We still need to see a break above 114.55 to go long USD again, but yesterday's news from the Fed isn't going to give it the impetus by look of price action. As this is written another near term top is being formed on this pair, so am going to risk some of yesterday's profits on this pair on a short from 114.01 current levels with a stop 25 pips away and see how it goes.
Short
by sumastardon
GBPUSD Medium Term Swing set-upsGBPUSD Near Term - and Medium Term swing set-up Maybe about to get stopped out of the Sterling short trade here for a 10 pip loss (stop at 1.337) If so, it's a small loss at least - but need to cover the implications from here, if struck ... Sterling would then be likely to rally further by about 90 pips to 1.3475 - but intend to close down any near term longs there as it has become such a key area of interest, with fixed/static resistance from the summer period meeting dynamic/moving resistance from the highs - therefore a likely point of maximum impact/interest if it gets struck over the next day or two... So in the event that 1.3480 is broken on the upside by more than 15 pips (and any subsequent pull-back is then supported around the 1.3470 mark) Sterling would be making quite a big statement: 3 years and 3 months of downtrend is finally at an end, bringing more swing traders into the market...so will go long again at this point if we happen to see that little pull-back, (with stop about 20 pips below here at 1.3448 for small loss if wrong) looking for 1.363 initially, then a move up to test the upper parallel, followed by further strength to 1.4062. So 590 pips potential reward for 20-30 pips or so risk, if struck. DOWNSIDE for Sterling So if the short from 1.327 (stop at 1.337/8) gets taken out that's 10/11 pips blown - and if it doesn't will be looking to let it run a little, but only back to 1.3143 ish for 130 pips or so profit. No way can swing traders turn aggressively bearish of Sterling again unless and until it breaks below 1.3029, which would create a 250 pip downside target at 1.2777.
Short
by sumastardon
DXY: Dollar has to break above 94.75 to trigger next longDXY: Dollar Index Update Been waiting for DXY to come back to 94.28 at least, if not to 93.99 (and potentially a spike to an extreme low off the lower trend line at worst) before the Dollar begins its next surge higher... But it's putting up a fight at 94.45 in London today. It can still come off from around 94.70 mark though so getting the turn here is tricky...now need to see a break above 94.70 by 5 pips to get long for move up to 96 initially, and much higher still over the medium term. In adsence of such price action it's a waiting game a little longer, looking for a retest of 94.28 or ideally 93.99 before looking to go long again.
TVC:DXYLong
by sumastardon
Teva Pharmaceutical industries. up or down? This is my first wave chart, so be gentle. :) i have 2 scenario. One is that wave 5 have ended and we are ready to a correctional wave of A,B,C. The other is that they will present bad revenue. And the price will continue the down trend, and stop at the support line at 6,49 where the 5th wave could end and start a correction of A,B,C. Fundamental: Teva have a great product portfolio, but have lost 64.46% decline year to date. and a 68.83% decline from 30/10/2016 to 30/10/2017 The decline have something to do with there stock pilling on debt that run along the loss in product sales. The U.S. generics industry is facing significant competitive and pricing pressure, which have been affecting the company’s generic revenues. An increase in FDA generic drug approvals and ongoing customer consolidation are resulting in additional competitive pressure in the industry. earlier this month, in a major blow to Teva, Mylan MYL launched its generic version of the 40 mg formulation, much earlier than expected. Mylan also launched a second generic version of Copaxone 20 mg formulation (once-daily). Though these generic launches will not hurt Teva’s third-quarter sales and profits, Teva estimates that it will have a negative impact of at least 25 cents per share on fourth-quarter earnings. Teva Pharmaceutical industries have a P/E Ratio (TTM)=-2,22 And a EPS(TTM)=-6,11 This means that the company is losing money. besides that, investors now pay 2,22 Dollars less pr earned dollar They still have a 1,20(8,07%) Forward Dividend and Yield this means that the company is expecting a low grow rate because of the high yield (if the Yield is low, a company is expecting high growth expectations and are more likely to give investors reward through out a rise in the stock price) The Beta is low at 0,72. a Beta below 1 is a less volatile stock. My target will be at 36.49$ where my stops loss will be at 6,18$ general 1y target estimate from other investors is at 20,02$ Profile: Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes generic medicines and a portfolio of specialty medicines worldwide. It operates through two segments, Generic Medicines and Specialty Medicines. The Generic Medicines segment offers sterile products, hormones, narcotics, high-potency drugs, and cytotoxic substances in various dosage forms, including tablets, capsules, injectables, inhalants, liquids, ointments, and creams. This segment also develops, manufactures, and sells active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Specialty Medicines segment provides branded specialty medicines for use in central nervous system and respiratory indications, as well as the women’s health, oncology, and other specialty businesses. Its products in the central nervous system area comprise Copaxone for multiple sclerosis; Azilect for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease; and Nuvigil for the treatment of excessive sleepiness associated with narcolepsy and certain other disorders. This segment’s products in the respiratory market include ProAir, ProAir Respiclick, QVAR, Duoresp Spiromax, Qnasl, Braltus, Cinqair/Cinqaero, and Aerivio Spiromax for the treatment of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, as well as Treanda/Bendeka, Granix, Trisenox, Lonquex, and Tevagrastim/Ratiograstim products in the oncology market. This segment also offers a portfolio of products in the women’s health category, which includes ParaGard, Plan B One-Step, and OTC/Rx, as well as other products. The company has collaboration arrangements with Attenukine, Procter & Gamble Company, and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (source: finance.yahoo.com) Good luck :)
NYSE:TEVALong
by Fx-AlphaStrats