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Gold XAUUSD and Dollar Index DXY UpdateGOLD and DXY Gold and Dollar Index Update DXY did come off from where it was meant to last week but has put up more than just a fight so far in the 92.74-92.50 range. The fight back was to be expected, but it's doing better than envisaged so far here - and these conclicting signals urge caution now ...no interest in getting involved in a battle of whipsaw here but will look to back the winner again here when one emerges...DXY has gapped up today, double bottomed and left a pin bar lying around in the space between the two blue lines of fixed support shown on chart...bullish signals. But it's still trapped within the parallels which are trying to force price lower. Something has to give here soon. ...A break above the upper parallel would be the next bullish signal from DXY - look to get long DXY on the next retest of the parallel from above, once broken to upside, and get long USDEUR and short Gold on this development too. On downside DXY has to stay under the upper parallel for the bears to keep control from here - then they have to force DXY down to fill the gap today at 92.89 and then push it below 92.55 again for DXY to turn negative again from here. As it stands the bears are beginning to lose this battle, not enough fire-power to force DXY lower from here by the look of the chart. Early hours of this battle, still, but increasingly the bulls are beginning to wrest back control here. Confimation will come when the upper parallel is broken and survives the next retest. At that point we look to short gold (if signals there are not already given) and get long USDEUR.
TVC:DXY
by sumastardon
ETHUSD Perking upETHUSD Please Vote for your favored Trading Platform Switched to Bitfinex chart as the noise around price/spreads look cleaner on the chart, so these prices will differ from previous posts. Would really like to know from US traders their favorite platfrom for trading Alts. (Please take the 30 secs to hit comment and respond. These forecasts take time to consider and write. All I ask from you is 30 secs. Please) Good test of the long term trend/dynamic on this chart. It was clearly a big success, that test and obviously a lot of people saw it and traded it as can be seen from the bounce. But it's not leaping to new highs like Dash: there looks a bearish undertone and yet it is trying to build a right hand shoulder to lean on around 418 and is now probing key resistance at 454. This is likley to be a great weekend for Bitcoin and the alts...ETH looks like it will grind higher too though this area baove now is full of whipsaw and uncertainty, it's still a buy dips market here and across the board untilthe charts tell us otherwise. Do not be short of any Alts v USd this weekend by the look of it
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by sumastardon
6
BCHUSD Buy points on weakness coming upBCHUSD This looked crocked yesterday. What happened? Don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. A chart will do that for us. Should come back to 1180, maybe spike to 1124. This is what we've really been waiting for isn't it (you were not long, were you anyway) So sling an order in at 1180 and leave the stop below 1124 or put one in at 1126 with stop below 1124 by at least 10 points. Maybe it will come all the way to you, and no further. It needs a full flush. Maybe we'll get one.
B
by sumastardon
DASHUSD: Up 80% + in 13 days:Time to raise stops/watch this flagDASHUSD Update We were so lucky to get filled at 305 back on November 10th just an hour or two after the last Dash forecast went live and trade is still live and going well, so far. But it could be fading here, it's falling away from the top of the flag and needs buyers to push higher and trigger the next addition to longs. If we see this the stop on all positions can be raised to just under the upper parallel at the point of break out. If at any point buyers fade away and sellers are able to drive price below the lower parallel all longs must be closed out as quickly as possible to trap in 240 points of gains, up 80% in 13 days so far. Bitcoin eat your heart out.
BITTREX:DASHUSDLong
by sumastardon
1
USDTRY USD Turkish Lira Short set-up with big potentialUSDTRY US Dollar Turkish Lira This is striking impulse wave: and when it breaks down it's a fabulous short Cannot short this whilst within the power of this massive impulse wave. But once it falls out of the parallel it becomes a massive short - once broken, look for any retest of the parallel from the underside once broken as a second shorting opportunity with stops above the parallel. This break down could be imminent...worth watching this one. It could come all the way back down to the longer term trend line, given enough time. It will likely form a trend as it does so...draw in the parallels as it emerges and stay short whilst it's trapped within them. Good one, looks like, even if a little exotic. A trend is a trend, wherever it originates!
Short
by sumastardon
1
Dollar Index: DXY Update and Key levels for next breakDollar Index: DXY So far DXY is displaying precisely the kind of technical price action you'd expect of something in the process of breaking down lower...the tiny continuation pattern with a bearish upwards slope, every move contained within the parallels that control this inverted flag formation. The dollar will try to rally from the lower parallel of the flag so we need to step off the gas around now if shorting USD across the pairs. Contrarians may look to go long USD again here but be careful if you do...at some point soon DXY is going to fail, breaking below the lower parallel - the point to go aggressively short USD again and to go long Gold once more, looking for 92.62 on DXY and 1305 on Gold.
TVC:DXYShort
by sumastardon
Dow Jones - Up 50% in 21 months-How Long Can this keep going On?Dow Jones Industrials Index: DOWI (End of Day) Short Term and Medium term Outlook At least the markets get the President even if no else seems to. It's quite impressive that people's pensions are worth 50% more than 2 years ago in many cases. How long can it go on? We can see that the Dow is pushing up against the upper limits of the two parallels that have controlled this great impulse wave from the outset. A 50% rise is a natural check- point, as will be 100% when we get there. We can also see that each time it tests the upper parallel it begins to unwind, creating a continuation pattern with a sideways or downward bias that lasts 2 months or so. It's already lost the power of the smallest parallels and has since tracked sideways off the first support at 23237, almost precisely with the actual low some 7 points higher. So in the near to medium term it's likely that the Dow will track down the small parallels shown at the top of the chart, becoming a perfect environment for day-traders that 'get' the pattern here...sell off the upper parallel buy back on lower until one day the the upper parallel is broken to upside (or downside) and follow that break. But it's more likely to zig- zag down within the small parallels to fill the gap at 22995 and then bounce powerfully from there. That's a nice little flag to trade between in the meantime. So at moment it looks like a lazy continuation pattern back to 22393 before a good rally. This pattern will change on any successful breach of either of the small parallels - to upside follow on successul break of upper parallel for another test of the larger parallel above.And if the lower small lower parallel is sucessfully breached on the downside it will seek support off the blue support line at 22995 - just much quicker than if it tracks within the flag. The 22995 level is important to the medium term for the Dow. And we can see that the entire rally between the two blue supports at 22995 and 22393 is, so far, uncontested. It would be easy pickings for the bears should 22995 fail at any point. It would fall quickly 600 points (a fabulous short if we see it at any point, worth setting an alert for) to 22393 at least and quite likely to test the lower large parallel before the next rally could begin in earnest. But until we see a break of those small parallels that form the flag top, this space belongs to day-traders. One other thing, this market is one of the best to trade, making conventional patterns, especially in continuation mode - making it muuch easier to 'read' than, say Nasdaq. Look atthe patterns - they're friendly, familiar. Are Nasdaq's? Find a friend you can trust. That would be the Dow. Long term, for what it's worth, this index should rally at least 4 X from the February 2106 low and quite easily 6 times. America has never had it so good since Ronald Reagan rode into the sunset. Happy thanksgiving to the USA. Long Term Cycle Analysis:
DJ:DJI
by sumastardon
1
Gold:XAUUSD Playing the game of push/pull with DXY Gold: XAUUSD How DXY is the gold trader's best friend right now So far gold has behaved in the bear-mangling mode expected of it since the dollar broke down below key support on DXY at 94.26 (right hand chart) but it wasn't too smart to let it go again at 1290. That rally on Friday was vicious for bears - the shape of price action as gold turned resistance at 1281 into support shows the market adjusting before gold powers 16 points north, a volte-face - which you would have been expecting if you've been experienced enough, wise enough to run the two charts in tandem. If you don't you're dealing with a blindfold over one eye... The pin bars on the one hour chart here show strong rejection at 1296.78 down to current levels at 1293 and a streak of uncontested green...very rare for a space like that to remain uncontested and it should flip back to 1288, and potentially to 1284 before it rallies again. On the other side of the street, we can see that DXY is flipping in a range beween 93.99 (the high for the week was exactly 93.99 as forecast, giving a precise point at which to sell gold - with stops only triggered in event that DXY breaks above 94 and holds, in which case DXY is going up and Gold is going back down. Just the best duo/tandem trade there is in almost any market anywhere. Use it or lose it. Probably the best companion a gold trader can ever have. DXY: Dollar index Through all the noise of currency pairs and most commodity markets there is a still, small, much neglected voice that can tell usually show you the bigger picture/helicopter view of all that close combat fighting going on below. Not always, but usually. DXY, so far since the breakdown at 94.26, has been very helpful. It's flipping between 94 key resistance and 93.50 key near term support and this is what's causing such grief and whipsaw in the price of gold. Right now it's giving mixed near term signals... believe it will break lower still eventually, but the chart is not confirming that here....it's just double bottomed at 93.50...was Ok to bounce here for sure but that was quite a big bounce - pins at top and botttom of move...just near term a little confusing, at least to this writer anyway. But gold is toppy near term and DXY is showing a double bottom near term. If it can rally from here then it should push back up to the 93.99 where it should meet profit takers. (Do same with gold shorts at that point). And only if DXY can then manage to break above 94 and hold is the tide turning back in favour of Dollar, at which point we look to short gold again. And on the other side, if at any point DXY breaks 93.50 it enters a zone of uncertainty/whipsaw between 93.50 and 93.35 where positions can sudddenly reverse - like quicksand on a map this zone cannot be trusted - a zone to avoid if possible. However, if at any point DXY is driven below 93.5 for more than 2 hours it will become llikely that support is eroding and it should start to fall away quite hard to 92.80-92.62 - and thereby triggering aggressive gold longs.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
Gold:XAUUSD Gold/Dollar Play off DXY Clean Chart No BSGold: XAUUSD 1.25% How DXY -0.25% is the gold 1.24% trader's best friend right now So far gold 1.24% has behaved in the bear-mangling mode expected of it since the dollar broke down below key support on DXY -0.25% at 94.26 (right hand chart) but it wasn't too smart to let it go again at 1290. That rally on Friday was vicious for bears - the shape of price action as gold 1.24% turned resistance at 1281 into support shows the market adjusting before gold 1.24% powers 16 points north, a volte-face - which you would have been expecting if you've been experienced enough, wise enough to run the two charts in tandem. If you don't you're dealing with a blindfold over one eye... The pin bars on the one hour chart here show strong rejection at 1296.78 down to current levels at 1293 and a streak of uncontested green...very rare for a space like that to remain uncontested and it should flip back to 1288, and potentially to 1284 before it rallies again. On the other side of the street, we can see that DXY -0.25% is flipping in a range beween 93.99 (the high for the week was exactly 93.99 as forecast, giving a precise point at which to sell gold 1.24% - with stops only triggered in event that DXY -0.25% breaks above 94 and holds, in which case DXY -0.25% is going up and Gold 1.24% is going back down. Just the best duo/tandem trade there is in almost any market anywhere. Use it or lose it. Probably the best companion a gold 1.24% trader can ever have. DXY: Dollar index 0.11% Through all the noise of currency pairs and most commodity markets there is a still, small, much neglected voice that can tell usually show you the bigger picture/helicopter view of all that close combat fighting going on below. Not always, but usually. DXY -0.25% , so far since the breakdown at 94.26, has been very helpful. It's flipping between 94 key resistance and 93.50 key near term support and this is what's causing such grief and whipsaw in the price of gold 1.24% . Right now it's giving mixed near term signals... believe it will break lower still eventually, but the chart is not confirming that here....it's just double bottomed at 93.50...was Ok to bounce here for sure but that was quite a big bounce - pins at top and botttom of move...just near term a little confusing, at least to this writer anyway. But gold 1.24% is toppy -0.73% near term and DXY -0.25% is showing a double bottom near term. If it can rally from here then it should push back up to the 93.99 where it should meet profit takers. (Do same with gold 1.24% shorts at that point). And only if DXY -0.25% can then manage to break above 94 and hold is the tide turning back in favour of Dollar, at which point we look to short gold 1.24% again. And on the other side, if at any point DXY -0.25% breaks 93.50 it enters a zone of uncertainty/whipsaw between 93.50 and 93.35 where positions can sudddenly reverse - like quicksand on a map this zone cannot be trusted - a zone to avoid if possible. However, if at any point DXY -0.25% is driven below 93.5 for more than 2 hours it will become llikely that support is eroding and it should start to fall away quite hard to 92.80-92.62 - and thereby triggering aggressive gold 1.24% longs.
TVC:DXYShort
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUST Potential break to upside developingBitcoin: BTCUSD Almost BS free version The way this is behaving now, sliding down the upper parallel of the continuation pattern is still more bullish than bearish, though doesn't look it, granted...it can spend a while yet grinding lower but so long as it finds support from 6450 pivot this is, surprisingly, looking like it might well make a break to the upside yet. This will confound bears, obviously, and stops will start flying, again. That''s why we're flat watching this stooge around drifting down the upper little parallel. If it dips down to 6450 it's a speccy buy for day-traders with a stop tight under at 6400. But it still needs to break above the stonger potential dynamic resistance line at 6550 and then hold on retest (as laboriously explained above and or in previous comments for other traders to consider going long again. this process requires the patience of a saint on a fishing expedition. If you got it, stay with it a while. It could just pay off. And, like fishing, we may also catch nothing. Downside is trickier to judge right now unless day-trading between the lines - don't think it's safe to short again unless 6300 gives way. and at moment the pattern is not saying bearish, just boring . Be Lucky! patient too And maybe drop the the stop to under 6400 by 10 points if going long from here. riskier than waiting for break and confirming signal at 6550 but higher reward.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
2
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Short set-up hereBitcoin: BTCUSD For what it's worth right now, and looking at the bigger picture and pattern developing in first moment of calm since rising from bed, believe that Bitcoin is most likely to bottom at 5098 - a long way down from here - that view will only change if Bitcoin continues to hold up around current values and then turns up and breaks through parallel as described earlier...unless and until we see that Bitcoin is still very vulnerable - don't look to play this long unless 6515 is broken on upside - look for shirting opportunities and use stops to stay safe....can you see the stop? is it close by ? then trade for small loss if wrong.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
BCH/DOLLAR: BCHUSD 20% Short set-up when Bitcoin turns back upBCH/DOLLAR BCHUSD Short Set-up Some interesting action by this crypto pair. Take a look on the 15 minute chart at the continuation patterns over just the last couple of days, just perfect, with great entry points. If you traded this since yesterday, so far so good. But when Bitcoin bottoms it will obviously snap back, giving bears a chance to hit it ...so this will be a good short to pair with Bitcoin BTCUSD on the buy side, when the turn comes...(see Bitcoin comments). Right now BCH is just making the beginnings of another continuation pattern as Bitcoin sticks around 6305-6220 on downside, so this is not tradeable yet - but when Bitcoin finally wriggles free of the central parallel and then breaks the last parallel on the upside, then will be the time to short BCH/Bitcoin and BCHUSD. The space down to 1210 is full of whip right now and can easily break higher still if Bitcoin breaks lower still, as it's still quite likely to, so far, by look of Bitcoin chart. But it doesn't have to, unfortunately. So: If bitcoin breaks lower from 6000-5990 this will go higher still. And conversely, if Bitcoin finds a bottom at 6220, as it has done so far, this will crash back to 976 at least with easiest part of the trade being from 1200 down to 995 - a nice 20% short...worth watching this/setting alert for any break of 1210 , (confirmed by Bitcoin double bottoming at 6220 and turning back up) so you're ready...could be a good one.
BShort
by sumastardon