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WFC is moving ahead of the market for better or worse?My overall thesis is we are in the very early stages of a multi-year decline ultimately with the S&P 500 below 3500. I have been wrong many times before so I will just take this thing in stages and see if it plays out. After this massive decline, we should be in for a great market rally of many decades. I am expecting the market to end its recent rally this week. The current rarely would be about a week in length depending when it began for individual stocks. The rally has done a few important things with its slow and prolonged upward movement, mainly prevents a wave 3 signal from occurring during the next decline. My wave 3 indicator tends to signal wave 3s and 3 of 3s. See my scripts for the specifics of the indicator. If the market had a short wave 4 up and then a sharp or prolonged drop during wave 5, a new wave 3 signal would occur which violates the currently placed Minor wave 3 (yellow 3). Allowing separation from the current wave 3 signal enables wave 5 to drop quick or slow. This chart applies select movement extensions based on wave 1's movement on the left and then another based on wave 3's movement on the right. I keep the values between 0%-100% on the chart for wave 2s and 4s retracements of the preceding wave's movement for reference even though the retracement values would be inverted. Specifically for WFC, Minor wave 3 was the shortest impulsive wave, likely indicating wave 5 will be 49 bars (30 minute scale) or less. This will likely put a restriction on the length of the decline. Additionally wave 4 is moving faster for this ticker than it has been on the others I have studied. Minor wave 5 should drop below wave 3's bottom of 65.515. Using some basic movement extensions, it will likely go lower, but likely not too much more. Once we bottom, we should see another rally over a few weeks. I will forecast what that could look like as Intermediate wave 1 nears its end. While WFC has been trading with most of the other signals I am watching, the current rally could be a sign of Intermediate wave 1 possibly having ended at the current Minor 3 bottom. This would mean we are in Intermediate wave 2 now. In this case, the top of Intermediate wave 2 is quickly approaching (no higher than 78.98. I will evaluate this solution if the rally continues next week.
NYSE:WFCShort
by StockSignaler
Which Path Will Prevail?Time to view all possibilities after a weak Friday of movement. I have developed an indicator that identifies Wave 3s, wave 3 of wave 3, and the end of corrective waves (2, 4, or B) which can be found here: . Some wave 1 and wave A ends will get a signal, but it takes other analysis to identify those points. Applying that script to the chart at the intervals below, may aid in identifying where the market is. The indicator on the chart is the second row of indicators called EW_3_v2. Here is the 10 Minute Chart: I have placed all of the locations of data from the macro waves which I will walk through. This chart shows Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 at 1050 (eastern time) on August 2. Next signal aligns with end of Minor wave 4. Next signal aligns with the probable Minuette wave 3 ending in Minute wave 1 inside of Minor wave 5 inside Intermediate wave 5 at 1500 on August 4. Next signal was likely Minute wave 4 inside Minor wave 5 at 1550 on August 8. Next signal was Intermediate wave 2 at 1000 on August 10. The next and final apparent signal was a wave 3 ending at 1350 on August 10. This signal could be Minuette wave 3 inside Minor wave 1 possibly inside Intermediate wave 3. Next is the 15 minute chart: The first indicator of Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 from August 2 remains. Next signal is Minor wave 4 ending and the currently marked end of Intermediate wave 2 on August 10. Next is the 30 minute chart: which identifies the same points of interest and Minor wave 3 endpoint is indicate instead of the Minor wave 4 ending. I use this macro to micro to macro scale of chart viewing to confirm or identify possible points of interest. The main hourly scale only identified the end of Minor wave 3 which was the original job of my wave 3 indicator. Based on this, the main chart above outlines the 3 paths. The left chart is if we are in Intermediate wave 3. Ultimately the market should move down this week if this is the current location. The middle chart assumes we are earlier on than expected and that the low from August 11 was only the end of Intermediate wave 1. This would mean the market should move up for most of this coming week. The retracement percentiles have not changed and on the chart. Possible top target would be in the 4510-4525 area. The main issue with this theory is based on the location of signals from the 10, 15, and 30 minute charts. They do not align well if all of last week’s movement was only Minor wave 5. This is my skepticism with this chart. The right chart assumes we are in Minor wave C of Intermediate wave 2. This would see the market move up early in the week but top before midday Wednesday. While this path is quite plausible and the prior target zone holds, the wave 3 indicator analysis would have placed wave 3s in the wrong location which is my skepticism for this theory. Basically, we have three potential paths this week. I will monitor to see which one plays out. I am back in sideline mode in the short-term until the path forward is clearer. Longer-term puts likely remain safe as that is the overall market direction.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
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