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Update

23/10/2020Hi guys and girls, I thought I would post a rough chart I have just done for ETH/USD. I am increasingly becoming more and more interested in Ethereum and it's use cases, though I admit, I'm a little late to the party when it comes to doing any TA lol. Here are some S/R levels I spotted that look to be relevant. To keep it short, ETH looks as if it's touching a local high from June this year. On the 4 hour TF we have been rejected a couple of times but there is all possibility there is more room to move upwards. Most say ETH will follow Bitcoin, and to me, all looks good for BTC so in theory we could go for another leg up however don't down play this resistance level. We do seem overextended on the momentum indicators and vol is slowly dropping off. The 21 and 50 day MA's are almost at the same point and the 21 is just a few $ more. We could see a pull back towards these levels but being new to ETH charts, I think I'll sit this out and watch for clarity though my gut says we go up a little more. Thanks :)
BYBIT:ETHUSD.P
by Crypto_Jakk
BTC - Where did all those gains go? D'oh!Remember when we thought BTC was on the rebound? Simpler times! We were so young and innocent! With dreams! Yes, I am aware I called a Bart and it didn't happen, then said we were probably clear of the bart, just to have a mini bart happen. I can practically taste the irony. But hey I was right... eventually :\ Now to the topic at hand, on the daily chart, yesterday might as well have not have happened. Well for BTC at least. We're below EMA 50 , Possibly heading towards another downward cross with EMA 100 . Watch over the coming hours and into tomorrow how we treat the EMA levels on both daily and 4H chart. If we use them as resistance, that is a very bad sign for short term price growth and likely a clear indication we're still in the correction phase. INDICATORS 1D : MACD divergence shrinking. Could be a bear cross coming. Stoch is pretty middling right now. Not doing a whole lot in either direction. Considering the recent drop I'd call that not a good thing. Volume big spike on the recent drop from liquidity area. Otherwise low volume. The market manipulators showed themselves on the previous candle. But may show a shrinking bear trend overall? EMA We're below EMA 50 . Like right below itAs I said, how it behaves here will tell us the rest of the story as to where we're at. Resistance and we've got more drops a comin'. Trading a hard fib level right this second. D INDICATORS 4H : MACD already bearish. Stoch is in freefall with room to go. Volume big spike on the recent drop from liquidity area. Otherwise low volume. The market manipulators showed themselves on the previous candle. EMA We're below All notable EMA's and it's using them as resistance it seems.. Quite a bad sign there bud. BOTTOM LINE: Interesting to note a lot of alt coins that were absolutely popping off are holding their support very well despite this drop. *Ahem -SXP & OMG* If you're into the alt coins, get your gain face on. If you're just trading BTC, be VERY careful right now. It seems to be having less solidity to it's price than some alt coins which is concerning.. The fact that the price moved from between liquidity areas, up to a new liquidity area, hung out there all day today and then dumped makes me concerned as well. Could be a sign of market manipulation; keeping the price in a swing zone to fill their orders on the upswings. Tin foil hat maybe, but I am not comfortable suggesting a long with these signs at all. -- And on the pedestal these words appear: ‘My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!’ Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away. - Percy Bysshe Shelley -- I'm a guy that you don't know posting his ideas on the internet for the sake of improving as a human being. If you take this as financial advice, that's on you. If you like my analysis, then leave a like and feel free to follow for more free content. Feedback, criticism and crude humor are welcome :)
by cryptosince1963
2
Why I booked profit on my shorts today?Context : As I explained in my post earlier, I expected strong selling in the zone 11380-11630. Remember this zone is where the shock moves started happening in February 2020. I actually did not trade much in the zone, but I started shorting around the upper range of the zone - around 11600. About Trade : I have been positional short from Sept 13, I bought Oct 29 PUTs to give me more time. But NIFTY moved in the anticipated direction. When I am sitting on profit, it is important to protect my profits. But also I should be careful of not being fearful . I did the following adjustments 1) I covered more than half of my position. 2) Remaining position I rolled below 200 points. I also hedged the same by selling even lower strike PUT of near expiry. All this ensured, I have taken profits. And then I am also in the trade. Downside is I won't be making large money if NIFTY continues to sell off in the next 2-3 days. Why did I booked some profit? 1) NIFTY made a very symmetrical move to the initial move, and many times, that makes traders to cover the positions. This means less momentum on downside. 2) There was a large 0.6%+ hourly bar at important support level - 11040. This also can be seen as a hammer in the 2hr chart. 3) Tomorrow is expiry. And because we had a large range month, it is not unnatural to have some confusing counter moves. It is better to step aside and just watch. References: Sep 13 Short Sep 3 Short Aug 28 Short
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
22/09/2020Previously I had posted this chart and some ideas. Then I had no idea where BTC would be going as the dump we seen when the chart was posted was completely unexpected by myself so it was very messy. Continuing from that post, the price did break down past the second purple box quite a bit and continued to drop. We then began a recovery only to drop again. The bottom seems to be finding some support on the .786 fib retracement level and some resistance around the second purple box. I have also added the CME gap that has yet to be filled although some may argue it already has but I would beg to differ. With the recent news of more potential restrictions due to the pandemic and also more bail outs needed for alot of countries, combined with CB interest rates/inflation there is a strong possibility we could drop further if we break this fib level. If that should be the case, I would watch for the CME gap to be filled. To be honest, I am not at all sure where we are going right now but the further downside is looking more likely for the shorter term (as I have this charted on the daily TF), I am also going to publish a weekly chart I have been watching. Once again, I apologize for the crap description... I know what it means and hope the drawings can speak for themselves lol. Thanks.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Crypto_Jakk
03/09/2020Just a quick update... If this is one entity buying and selling, manipulating the BTC price, it seems to be between fib levels .618 and .382 / .236 however this is just speculation and we could move down to the CME gap at 9600s if the level breaks or we could play consolidation within these levels for a while shaking out positions.. or then again, that could have been the correction and we would go higher from here. The daily is looking bad but if this is 'the bull run', we should expect major moves like this. I have been stopped on most of my positions by now so I'm just sitting back and watching this play out to see where it ends.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Crypto_Jakk
1
02/09/2020In this chart with the MA's added, I used the fib extension and extended the 0 level and .236 level. Notice how the close of yesterday (01/09/2020) and also the wick bottom of today's dump candle are exactly these levels. (01/09 close @ .236 and the wick of today @ 1.0). Today's dump candle was an engulfing beaarish candle, or is so as I type. This is something we usually do not want to see in a bull market however the retrace was only 5% and although it looks alot, Bitcoin is notorious for 30/50% dumps or more in a small time, even 30min or an hourly candle so I would worry about this drop too much. An over leveraged 'longs' shakeout IMO and that's all I will be seeing it as until I get further data that proves otherwise. Please do not FOMO into ANY kind of position based on small moves such as this, they are 'designed and executed' to take orders and keep the trend healthy, not allowing everyone to over leverage and get too comfortable with the uptrend or bull market. (Personal opinion)
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Crypto_Jakk
3
02/09/2020With the dotted vertical lines drawn, I had ruled out this move on September 1st after BTC continued to pump and not retest the first purple box. Today however, we had an unexpected dump down and it went through the first box but found support above the second. I think this validates the TA once more and the move to the upside is now in play. This could be interpreted individually but for myself I think the dump today has brought the retracement and furthermore a pump upwards just as likely as when I posted it. Today's dump seemed like a sell off, although there was an order block around the 11.1k level, likely to be some sort of manipulation, otherwise I would have expected that block to be moved down further towards the 10.5k mark. Many longs during this uptrend were liquidated and the move could possibly FOMO people into shorts but I would approach with caution as we could very well see another downside play. Most of the market was red today but this would be a good opportunity to load up on your favorite coins, I would not recommend selling because of a 5% downside move. Thanks for taking the time to read this update.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Crypto_Jakk
01/09/2020The 21MA in red is the MA we need to get and stay above. Failing this and the break of the purple line or bounce off the first box and then a break of the line, I think we could come down and test the lower box. This would turn my bias towards the downside and if a bounce from that level failed and a break down through it occurred, I would imagine Bitcoin would most likely see the higher or mid ranges of 10Ks, possibly testing the 10.5K resistance we had previously struggled to break. Lets all hope that doesn't happen lol, though if it did a gain in the Altcoin market would serve up some great opportunities for those who take interest.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Crypto_Jakk
3