Time for an updateWell, it's been a looooooong and boring time since I last posted here about BTSBTC, and I guess we are finally at a meaningful point. Looking at the chart, it's not a question of wether or not the fib channel is valid or not, because it obviously is. The million dollar question is: will we stay inside the fib channel or not.
If we stay inside the channel, we might very well look up the center line again which would mean a pretty steep drop. I know a lot of people think the only way is up at the moment, but I'm not so sure. We had something that looked like a 3-wave up over the last 2 days, but volume is so low it's almost non-existent, so I would hardly call that impulsive.
In the meantime king Bitcoin is also low on volume and moving ever more sideways. Don't fall into the trap of thinking there are only 2 options, a huge burst up or down. There is also the option of remaining boringly sideways for a lot longer. Guess what that would do the alts market? Alt season or a slow withering away of interest?
Update
BTC - Bitcoin fractal UPDATE (possible movements)We had a big breakout pump this past week, which indicates good signals for a possible reversal.
Extra signals for upcoming growth:
1.SHORTS are exceeding LONGS big time as we speak (32K vs 20K).
2. 2014 vs 2018 ALT-COIN MarketCap equal retracement: ~-85.5% + Inverse H/S forming.
(This is not financial advice, this is a volatile market where anything can happen)
UpdatePIK up 3.7% this morning after delivering a solid set of interim statemetns.
reported revenue for the H1 of R42.3bn(+6.4%)
Group turnover up 6.4%, with like-for-like turnover up 3.8%...
Volume growth of 3.5% and market share gains over six months...
1H gross profit margin 18.6% (18.6%) internal inflation held at 0.3% against CPI food of 3.5%...
1H trading profit R631.8m (+5.5%)...
Interim dividend per share 0.391 rand (+17.1%)...
1H net income R489m ... 1H turnover R41.2bn...
Strong earnings contribution from South African operations - with trading profit up 11.9% and profit before tax (before capital items) up 16.7%...
Rest of Africa division delivered profit before tax growth of 7.3%, underpinned by a strong performance from TM Supermarkets in Zimbabwe..
Trading conditions are not expected to ease significantly over the coming months
I would give this share some space before implementing a short bias.
TRON will be 200x faster than ETH and 100x cheaper than EOS?On Sunday, 7th of October, Justin Sun (Tron CEO) posted an update on twitter: twitter.com
The twit stated that in the upcoming update, Tron would become 200 times faster than Ethereum and 100 times cheaper than EOS. This is a very optimistic clam made by Mr. Sun, but if the claim will become the reality, price of TRX could increase substantially against the Bitcoin. Will “buy the rumor, sell the news” approach will work this time?
After the announcement was made, price of TRX/BTC has jumped by 11% within 7 hour period. It has reached the 429 satoshis high, and broke above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Obviously, since Tron has formed a double bottom at 270 satoshis support, price has been steadily increasing, producing higher highs and higher lows. This is the first sing of an uptrend, which at this stage is likely to continue.
Investors should consider the fact that price broke above the Fibonacci resistance, 200 Moving Average and RSI oscillator broke above the resistance line, suggesting an increasing interest in Tron.
As any market, Tron is moving in waves and currently it is reasonable to expect a corrective move down, which has already started. The question is how far down price might drop, and whether it will be just a correction or a downtrend continuation.
Based on the VPVR trade volume indicator, most trading volume occurred at the price of 330 satoshis, which is also a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. It seems logical to expect TRX to correct down towards this level, before and if the uptrend will continue. At the same time this support level should be watched for either the breakout or a rejection, which should give more insight on further price development.
To summarize, Tron looks bullish against the Bitcoin, and there is certainly room for growth. But, buying Tron might seem too risky, considering the ongoing downside correction. The support at 330 satoshis should play an important role and will likely indicate where it is heading in the near term future.
Per Request: $BCD Should You Enter & Where Is The Exit Level?Bitcoin Diamond not really long time ago was having a really manipulated market as the maintenance happened on Binance wallet, causing the local market on Bitcoin Diamond locked and pumped while other exchange follow through with such percentage and most traders really trading speculatively hoping that they can buy cheap and dump it on Binance. Yes it's work. For me. I'm the one who do so even i'm not selling on Binance because i know based on my experience i won't have time and luckily i'm right. Even, i'm profiting twice. Big profit and really small percentage of it afterwards just based on speculative reasons.
Unfortunately, not many was like me. Some might trapped on the higher price as side effect of that for real. So some of them might looking for an entry right now for averaging down their holding (DCA - Dollar Cost Average / BCA - Bitcoin Cost Average).
At the moment Bitcoin Diamond sitting on precisely 30K sats. This fork was quite hyped back then. BCD having 10x total supply of Bitcoin, I'm not really sure, but if they think they can replace the original Bitcoin, they might go wrong. Since that many supply must be for scalable purpose tho.
Sure thing is they are listed on quite many exchange as benefit of fork. Plus due to Bitcoin ORIGINAL volatility, we can only lean on the chart right now.
A slight bullish in my opinion, with 45:30:25 for Bullish:Bearish:Sideway.
Indicators looks good at the moment, my bullish tendencies will have 4% - 15% target on few days ahead at least. Black dots, plus the RSI level still giving it room for a slight growth before it might take a chill donw.
Otherwise, we need to see that if price action break my box and lines we will go bearish and re-asses the chart, probably it will invalidated this setup; or if it stay in it it will go sideway, most likely.
Trade safe!
If you're looking for higher time frame, really it will be such a waste, as this stuff really linked on BTC price.
#BTC Market Updates: 09/24/18#BTC Market Updates
OUTLOOK: Bullish
Double Bottom Bullish Reversal confirmed on Friday, but follow-through has stalled.
Nevertheless, outlook Remains bullish while above neckline of 6600$.
Immediate resistance seen at 6970$.
UTC close below 6600$ would neutralize Bullish Outlook.
Playing into the wedge still, currently have a falling 'upward' Sell Setup on the 4 which is always a bit abnormal. Last saw the 'upward' Sell Countdown on the 11 of 13 2 days ago, so looking at the Fisher about to cross may indicate we are looking for Bullish price flip very soon. This would most likely test the wedge top, and before that even, test the Senkou B bottom line of the red resistance Kumo cloud, last tested the first week of September. but was rejected. The thinning pressure from said Kumo cloud may back up this movement potential.
The ADX is low as we are, for the most part trending sideways, and DMI is consolidating to a current crossing to become bearish most likely. Also, POC is below current price action, so another bit of a bearish indication that we could continue down, creating yet more wave action trading into the wedge, before any Bullish breakouts.
Overall we're seemingly Bullish here, like always, long as we continue positive sentiment and don't have any FUD freakouts haha. Trending into the wedge and overall consolidating for weeks now is pushing us into a squeeze, but will be get a upward breakout to catch back up to 7k levels? What do you think?
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Which Way Should We Trade BTC?Macro Trend: Bearish.
Current Pattern Trend: Bullish.
HVF continuation pattern to the bull side.
Momentum of the legs show strength to the bear side.
Price action showing reduction in volatility in correspondence with the OBV squeezing.
Keep in mind that we are also sitting on top of a previous recent funnel at the moment
A breakout is about to happen soon!
Could this possibly be the turn around for BTC?
DAX: Dax Index Almost out of the MireDax Index
After rallying from the 11895-11869 range - leaving one defiant spike at the lower line and the bodies of the 1 hour candles sitting on the upper line - the Dax is now testing the first resistance line at 12093 and should rally to 12141-12166 range though it may wait for the US open to do so.
This range is the underside of important structure to left of price.
It has to break above 12166 to follow long again back to 121315 and then 12498, unless buying the next dip which may come over lunch in Europe.
On the downside the Dax has to break below the dynamic support line rising from the recent lows to return to negative from here.
It's still in a tricky spot technically whilst trapped below that old structure up to 12166 but the World Index looks positive (see update) so it looks like this will get dragged higher in its wake for the next day or two.
Look to buy dips for now but it will need US power to help it beat 12166 later on today.
The World Index chart suggests that should be forthcoming later.
3 Min quick rundown BTC USDTEntering high pressure region.
Potential retracement to 6900 region as we continue upward in the channel.
Significant overbought period wont last much longer.
Extremely charged for upward or downward motion.
If we make it through this region going sideways we will most likely jump up above the yellow region.
Bitcoin Update Week 32 - Holding on to the last horn..Hello traders, welcome to another weekly market outlook from the Zentrader. A lot has happened last week and unfortunately the market hasn’t given us the trade we were looking for. We didn’t enter any trade, so we’re wrong about the scenario and setup, but without a consequence. Which is one of the better ways to be wrong. Before we look at the charts, let’s recap what we were looking for last week. We acknowledged the overall bearish trend we were in, but were looking for one more wave upwards before resuming the bearish trend (aiming to reach the weekly kijun and react off it for the downwards move). Our longer term targets for the bears were discussed in our monthly outlook (linked below): just below 5000, and around 1350.
Now the question remains: are we still looking for the same scenario, one more up and then down? Or is the market breaking down, and are we back into the bearish movement already?
Let’s turn to the charts for answers.
Weekly
Last week we were looking for a move upwards towards the kijun and a bounce off the kijun for a short entry. Now we have to ask ourselves, was this the kijun bounce? And we not going to up once more?
Ichimoku shows us flat momentum on the kijun and tenkan, and on the senkou B (the bottom of the green kumo). So that is not of much help. We’re on a TD 4, which can signal the end of the bounce. We can also see that we’re hanging around a previous area of support. It’s all not very clear, so we’ll have to attempt to answer this question on a lower timeframe.
Daily
So… there’s a lot going on here that we need to pay attention to. Let’s take it step by step.
Price entered the kumo after the rejection at the 0.618 fib failed, and we’re trying to hold the previous resistance area. We\re on an 8 count, and it’s quite inevitable that we’re going to see bullish divergence on the TSI (unless we make lower below 6100 on this push..).
Where does this leave us? And how do we trade this?
We’re still looking for a wave upwards, and then down. Given the depth of the correction we probably won’t go as high as we previously thought, and we probably won’t even go past the previous high. The first resistance is around 7600, so that would be a safe target for the swing.
At the moment we have to wait and see if this support we’re in now holds, tomorrow can be a daily 9, which we’ll look at for reversal tomorrow… If this level does not, we might have to bid our idea of a bullish trade farewell and look for short entries. However, we don’t short support, so we’ll have to see some levels broken before we can consider that.
2HR
We can see we’re in the support zone here. It is key that this level holds to keep our scenario in play. What we’re looking for in the coming days on the 2hr chart is some signals of bullishness from ichimoku. But at the moment it is far too early to predict any of that. It looks like the move is nearing exhaustion, but that never means there’s not another push down!
We need to be patient here, and for the market to give us more clarity. We expect this to happen in the next few days though..
To recap, we’re at a key level here, and we need to hold this level and reverse in the coming few days. If not we will reassume our long term bearish position and look for short entries which comply to our risk rules.
We got safely into the first move up, giving us a good 15% profit, so we’re not in a hurry to enter a trade to ealy, When we have a safe entry, where we can sufficiently define our risk and reward ratio we’ll look to enter. If not we’ll wait for the market to give us another chance, there will always be another opportunity.
We’ll update the setup tomorrow, and see if we have any more bullish signs to enter the trade, or if we need to consider ourselves wrong.
Time will tell…
Bear Market or Bear Trap? $6900 Weekly UpdateHey Gang, Quick Update!
BTC looks like its in free fall, or does it? On the 4 hour things actually look prepped for a bounce from a technical standpoint, but the overall market sentiment is very negative. I'd guesstimate that the majority of people are not expecting ETFs anymore, meaning that most of the selling off is over. This recent dip may very well be a bear trap too, but enter with caution here if you're considering it because on the daily/weekly, things still look rough. I'll be re-entering some of my position in BTC near 6800 with a SL @ 6600. Still expecting further moves downward though in the long term but you gotta hedge your bets.
Personal Bias: 24% Bullish / 76% Bearish
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Market update - Week 31: Now that everyone is bullish… Hello again, welcome to another weekly bitcoin update. We discussed our longer term view in yesterdays monthly outlook (linked below). Now let’s look at the more immediate future, and how we can get positioned in the market.
Weekly
We talked about the weekly chart yesterday in a greater detail, so we’ll keep it brief here. The link to yesterdays post is at the bottom of this update, be sure to check that out.
The only things we’ll say here is:
We’re coming up to the weekly kijun, setting us up for a bearish kijun bounce. As we discussed yesterday, this is not only the area of the weekly kijun but a zone of (multiple timeframe) confluence of many resistances.
We had 2 huge weekly candles in a row, in a bear market. Many will shout at the top of their voices that this is bullish, and it is the end of the bear market. That makes us even more confident it definitely isn’t. We view it as a a sign of tremendous weakness: fomo traders blindly entered the market after a short squeeze, resulting in the second big positive candle. Fomo traders aren’t smart traders, and their hand is usually weak: They will probably panic sell as fast as they fomo bought. And this means that when the price starts dropping, it will drop fast.
We got in the those candles up, and out near the top. We’re now in a strong position, waiting for the market to show us a sign of collapse to get in short. Again we must not jump the gun here: we’re still in a range, and have a possibility of another way up, squeezing all the shorts who weren’t positioned correctly.
Let’s view the daily chart for more detail
Daily
This is where the action is, and there’s a number of things going on.
Firstly, we can see chikou and kijun attempting to break out of the kumo within the next few days. Second, in our big weekly box of resistance, we;ve narrowed out a zone where we are likely to see a bearish reaction if price is able to push up one more wave. We’ll be looking for short entries if price makes it there. Our invalidation level will be around the 10.000 range.
Third, see all the blue support boxes? this is where we expect to find minor reactions on our way down to 6000, and eventually 5000.
Now what does this all mean for our scenario? Are we long now, short later? Do we wait? Do we short now?
Price is still ranging, so taking a trade now would be the same as taking the trade last week.. too speculative and prone to liquidation. We’ll have to wait for price to work out this range, between the support and resistance box.
2HR
The 2HR chart doesn’t show us much more. Ichimoku is in equilibrium, and momentum is building up ready to be released. But this will probably not happen until the market took out all the stop losses, only then will it go on its way. Don’t be one of those stop losses, be a passenger on the price train. You just have to wait for it to get to our station :)
Here;s the link to our Longer term market outlook, check it out! And follow us to receive our updates on the developing scenarios.