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BTC markov method follow-up, initial pt reachedThis worked out scary well... I'd need a bigger sampe to confirm the method is consistent, but examine the following dynamics of the BTC movement through this "matrix" built around the initial symmetrical channel: - 31616.3 was my target last week when it was 28k merely because that level marked the upper bound (top point of local diamond) of the next most probable state - i.e. at the time of last analysis the most likely neigborhood of an adjacent state of 4 sections (individual boxes) had an upperbound at the 3161.3 level. - In general BTCUSD has been respecting each state like clockwork - this means when it gets near upper-bound of state it pulls back to lower bound of state and vice versa. The probability of the next state given the current state is based on the probabilities of the stochastic matrix, but one cn actually eyeball the tendency of yellow path (I call this the "yellow brick road" because it leads to the emerald city lol, i.e. new highs to around 83k by end of year; if it strays from the yellow brick road t risks meeting the wicked witch of the west, aka danger, aka risk to 13-23k to establish a bottom if we don't breakout of the markov grid (breakout would be around 34k-41k. So... the tendecy of the yellow path is like a connect 4 mid-point creek that moves +- 1 units in alternating (typically) fashion, every now and then going 2 up after a 1 down which gives it the updward drift pushing toward breakout. The reason there are intermittent consecutive ups with +2 and not +3, +4, +5,... within the +-1 pattern is because to go +2 in the time period for each state (which is constant) is still approximately linear, however after +2 it becomes non-linear - specifically expanding geometric with limit as n approaches infinity becoming exponential... The stochastic matrix is by design a system of linear equations so when a +2 and especially +3 occurs there is a bifurcation in the probability outputs (they go haywire) that signals this +3 or more w.r.t path is truly a change in structure ~ NOW THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING: during the move off last weeks lows there was a break of structure (or at least break of expected path defining structure)... it moved up for 2 consecutive states and then "jumped" up a 3rd consecutive state (the mechanics of what this means are in the above point. The interpretation of what this means is more clear; the prediction of near-term price action now becomes more complex but at the same time it confirms that volatility will escalate and that makes it a traders market again which we all should love. See below for Interpretation and Prediction: Interpretation : I mentioned last week that the rate of state transitions was starting to accelerate around the chopzone at 28-30k and because of that the probability of next state being higher with upper bound (and therefore initial target) of 31616.3 was a lot closer to 1 than 0 (previously the transition probabilities had been around 74-78%, the initial shift took the probability to 88. Now the rate that the shift is accelerating has increased substantially and, thus, forced the path structure to a non-linear system. The question now becomes, (a) will it remain non-linear (a way to evaluate at a non-linear level via approximation will be to redefine the size of a state to be proportional with the degree of the non-linear form (e.g. quadratic (which is where it is currently would require a neighborhood of 8 (2 x 4) sections to capture the implied range)... if not (a) then it would likely exhibit properties similar to when an asset goes parabolic and then breaks down when the movement becomes unstable - in our case it would imply a sharp pullback to around 29-30k (equal but opposite to the non-linear degree realized by the movement to local maximum state) and that would ultimately reset back to the linear path (i.e. back into the sideways consolidation). b) is the bifurcation to non-linear path necessary to initiate the breakout from consolidation (rather than an anomaly that reverts back to linear base). (b) is the most plausible if it establishes new support here at the 31616.3. We are about to see moment of truth at this very moment and I have mapped out how to play both of the 2 possibilities: PREDICTION: - If 31616.3 can hold here as support, expect next leg up to attempt breakout around 34k-37k (has 41k old support above that to deal with ut were not there yet - if this doesn't hold it will test support around 30.8k, which if that fails expect the reset-to-linear scenario back down to the 28-30k range. - A third possibility (c) is that it over-corrects from the bifurcation in structure and goes from non-linear at degree +2-+3 into a non-linear -2 to -3 (which could take it to 23k-13k. Either way... we're not in Kansas anymore don't expect the boring sideways price action recently to continue from here. I'll update on which scenario has higher probability given condition around if it holds 31616.3. ~Best Knocksville Johnny
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by JerryManders
BTCUSDT MAY 2021 FRACTAL AND TIMELINEImportant things to note: BTC has been sticking to my area of interest very well. The correlation to QQQ has been dropping little by little since May 12. BTC shorts vs longs look good. Funding rates have been neutral. I noticed similarities with the May 2021 fractal and our recent drop. The lower end of the fractal would touch 24k in BTCUSD terms which is roughly the cost basis for BTC. The timing of the fractal also lines up roughly with Fed tightening. Nothing happens exactly as it did before, so keep that in mind. Asia has been buying the bottom heavily. There was a huge drop in Whale held coins but it looks like that vast majority of them were from LUNA. Entity adjusted dormancy flow is scraping the bottom of the barrel (good sign) The Z score isn't quite there yet. Also the 200W MA is around 22k and everyone is waiting for it apparently. Hey everyone! So I have been staring at the fractal for a few days now. I know I know, the May 2021 fractal is a bit played out, but I think people were just using it at the wrong time. There are definitely similarities here in not only the structure, but the timing of upcoming events. The Fed will start tightening on June 1st which I am sure will send the market in a panic, and possibly crack the bond market. Strangely, this lines up perfectly with the fractal spiking down after the squeeze upward. What is also interesting is when I use this fractal on the BTCUSD chart, the lowest candle of the fractal almost touches the cost basis for BTC (24k). It actually misses it by $200. I mentioned previously that the area of interest will act as a gravitational black hole, sucking price action toward it due to the volume that changed hands in that area. Well I said the only thing that will kick the price away from this region would be a price squeeze or a significant event. The fact that the price is in this range for awhile will naturally cause the price to squeeze so it is no surprise to see that represented in the fractal. However, the timing of the fed tightening relative to the fractal is very interesting. I believed that the summer would be max pain for BTC. This fractal represents that very well. The price starts to recover about a month after the tightening starts which makes sense due to the low supply of BTC even at this price. That is close enough for me! Obviously, nothing happens exactly as it did before, but I found all of these coincidences very interesting to say the least. All other metrics for BTC whether it be whale accumulation, funding rates, short vs longs, supply, dormancy flow, hashrate and overall supply look great. Anyways, I will continue to keep you all updated! Thanks again everyone! So tell me what you think? Not financial advice. Do your own research.
by mysticalwalrus
2
Update to my recent ideaI posted a bullish UPST view recently, but I want to add some important observations that should be noted for anyone playing this tomorrow: -I can't pretend that unfilled gap from last April-May around 61 doesn't post a major risk here. However, take a look back at the price action last May earnings and you'll notice a common theme, namely, pre-earnings the price came off a bullish anti-cypher harmonic and tested that lower 80 level at the top of the gap for support going onto the report (not shown in chart but take a look for yourself)... due to the high short interest at the time and the earnings beat it absolutely took off to the upside post-ER. Fortunately for UPST bulls currently, heavily shorted and Friday it did the same thing where it tested that upper gap and held so I believe if they impress with this report it will not need to fill that gap (just yet). However, I will be hedging accordingly. The May 13 options are priced for a move to 61-107 (wow)... everyone's thinking it, I'm just saying it THIS REPORT NEEDS TO BE $$$$ - Support to the bullish view can be seen clearly in this 2 hour interval view with that stochastic RSI and the RSI primed for liftoff; furthermore, double completed bullish harmonics coming into this with the same anti-cypher pattern in the most recent harmonic - If this pops it needs to keep in the upper section of Gann fan for continuation - it needs to keep up with time - Please refer to the RSI at the 1D level (i.e. see my last post or refer to it on your own chart) - I did a full statistical eval. on the performance over the full history of UPST using RSI as a sole trade signal and it was very impressive. 88% reliability (measured this by the percentage of successful trades, e.g. if RSI purple crossed above yellow and upside move materialized that = successful trade, and vice versa for bearish crosses). 54% capture rate (this is actually extremely rare for trading with a sole indicator, but the idea is after a signal how much of the move on average did the signal capture, e.g. from open long to close long). Average upside move after bullish crosses was +65%... this thing can swing! Expectations Bullish case: gap to low 100s and if we see continuation it can run to 114, 120s, 150s, low 170s.. the extent of this continuation (i.e. which of those levels will actually be realized) will depend on market environment and/or if the short interest data are up to date (I'm seeing 28.5% short float, 2 days to cover so this can happen fast if it does move to mid 100s I wouldn't be surprised but I don't think it will be sustained unless whole market squeezes, 38% recent short increase). After bullish run ends (possibly low 170s but I'll be taking profits at 120-150 tbh) I would not be surprised if this whipsaws and fills that gap down to 61. Bearish case: on a miss this could get hit down to gap fill and, hate to say it, but that downward momentum could send it on continuation down to around 35.. I didn't include elliot wave in this but UPST is, after all, trying to complete a rather funky corrective cycle before beginning next bullish impulse cycle. If someone has that corrective count mapped out I would be very interested in seeing it because I couldn't quite pin it. Good luck to all, not financial advice but expect some very interesting and volatile price action in the weeks to come.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by JerryManders
7
Same song and dance, nothing changedHate to keep doing this on every non-eventful day, but just an update from my last post: Nothing changed, still bullish with 50240 target, stop loss 41000. I laid out the 2 most likely scenarios last week and scenario 1 playing out exactly as expected - finding support at the range breakout level (also has EMA 34,55 support here); stochastic overdone. Expect bounce from here to test the longer term trendline resistance (old support) around 46k-48k, a break above that will send it to target. Obviously if this current level does not hold and it falls below 41k it’s a “close long”.. obviously not financial advice. Have fun, quit getting so excited we in a nap zone. Love ya.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JabezDolz
Doge short update call sorry about the confusion but we have to get in every opportunity if they show themselves OfCourse. here we see divergence on daily and daily is respecting 50% so only logical thought that came to mind was that daily still is retesting, and it looks like that on the 4 Hr & 1 Hr so FIb helps us guide this trade by having our target area set on 50% lvl of the fib as you can see then we will see a buy opportunity hopefully thinking ofcourse i dont like to get ahead of myself but the market only moves two ways so not much options hahah. good luck and always remember stay hard1
BINANCE:DOGEUSDShort
by JoeIdeas