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Update

Monster Run Starts 7/11Updated details from my post on Friday 7/8. That was done in a hurry with the primary message being "seize the opportunity and Buy while its still in the 700s"... Here are my expectations after running a full analysis - I should note that the method I am using to calculate targets is my own, the Elliot Wave shown is just a supplemental check I use to confirm the move I am seeing coming using my method is plausible with respect to the larger structure: - Pre-earnings target = 917.61, with the most explosive part of the move coming next week (7/11/2022 - 7/15/2022). There might be some resistance around 822-853, but I think it has the setup to squeeze right past it with consecutive big green days. - After testing low 900s as a sign of strength, it might pullback/consolidate going into earnings. Post-ER target range is 955-984, and in the right environment it can even test the major resistance around 1150. I'll re-eval from there when the time comes. Markup was activated with a break above 747.90, and then close above deep purple trendline Friday 7/8. We already got a taste of TSLAs strength above the 747 after hours 7/8 when if got to as high as 777 after Elon withdrew from the Twitter deal. He knows what he's doing. Regards, Grimes we are from the dimension that exists in Your future, translated in Our past via R.E.M. within the dimension that exists in Your present... or did
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by JerryManders
5
ADA Cardano VASIL Hardfork DetailsHI Friends. Today i decide to explain more about coming upgrade in cardano blockchain. without wasting time lets go friends. Vasil Hardfork: Another Network Upgrade On The Cardano Blockchain A hardfork is a software upgrade to a blockchain’s network, making previously invalid transactions and blocks valid. While many blockchains rarely do the hardfork, Cardano (ADA) is a sort of blockchain that experiences periodic improvements every year. After their first hardfork, Alonzo, now Cardano is on track to implement another fork called the ‘Vasil hardfork’. Vasil hardfork is the second massive upgrade to the Cardano network that focuses on overall network stability and connectivity. With Vasil, pipelining testing, new CIP mechanisms (CIP-31, CIP-32, CIP-33, CIP-40), UTXO on-disk storage integration, and Hydra will be introduced as added functions. once Vasil hardfork is completed, Cardano will receive a higher throughput and an enhanced range of decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized exchange (DEX), and smart contracts. These enhancements are derived from the scaling improvements of the network as stated earlier, including pipelining tests, improved logging, the release of four CIPs: CIP-31 (Reference Input), CIP-32 (Inline Datum), CIP-33 (Reference Script), and CIP-40 (Collateral Output), UTXO HD and Hydra integration. CIP’s Explanation: CIP-33 is expected to significantly reduce transaction costs, by making transactions small and “lightweight” CIP-31 will facilitate Decentralized Apps (DApps) to access transactional output without having to recreate it as before. CIP-32 introduces an on-chain data storage for the community and developers, thereby making Cardano a “truly decentralized architecture”. CIP-40 executing a Plutus Smart contract requires a collateral amount, which means users must include a fee to cover the cost of executing the script.When a transaction fails validation, said collateral is completely lost. CIP-40 changes this by including just enough collateral in a transaction for it to go through and setting a limit to failed transactions, so it can only lose a minimum amount of collateral. Despite several crashes and bearish market cycles at the moment, ADA still performs well and ranks in the top 10th percentile on the crypto market, based on its market capitalization this upgrade scheduled to happen in 29 june 2022 but its delayed for next month july. thank you for your reading and your support. hope to like this post.please share me your opinion in comments.
by TraderAmin-KZ
2
EURAUD TRADE UPDATE! In PROFIT ✅🏁Welcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair! **EURAUD TRADE UPDATE & RECAP- Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
2
BTCUSDT PRICE SQUEEZE + QQQ CORRELATIONImportant things to note: This is just a small update with small adjustments to my targets. If you would like me to make a video version of these updates, let me know in the comments. A quick video overview of BTC and the markets would be easier for me to put out more often via video. We are currently going on our 9th red week and I have to be honest, I just do not see another down week happening. Price has been staying in area of interest and squeezing. QQQ correlation has been falling daily since May 12th. I have adjusted the price targets by a small amount. The Volume we had on the drop across all markets is significant. I have also adjusted the symmetrical triangle to account for the price movements. It would make sense that the price would squeeze higher and test the trendline. I expect the trendline test to get rejected due to the overall bear market. Tightening starts June 1st which would spike the price is the market shutters. Hey everyone! I just wanted to give you a quick update since I have adjusted a few things and have looked at the overall market during the weekend. Also, it would be easier on me if I could just make a video update every few days going over the tradfi market, derivatives, crypto and anything else I see going on. If this is something you would rather see versus reading me ramble on, please let me know in the comments. I would still put out charts, but it would save me some writing time. Anyways, so I have been thinking about the fact that we are going on our 9th red week and to be honest, it cannot sustain the same momentum forever. I think this would be a good time for the price to squeeze upwards towards 33k while simultaneously testing the trendline. I also expect that the trendline test would be rejected. The lows will need to be tested eventually and that would also fall in line with the fed tightening. I do not expect the market to puke the very day that the tightening begins, but that week or the following week seems likely if the credit market starts to shake. I have also put the downside risk on the chart as well so you know where I expect price to go if things go wrong. I should also note that you can clearly see the correlation to QQQ start to fall little by little. The thing is, BTC is cheap compared to QQQ if you look at the average distribution. So I expect that at these levels, people are going to keep stacking. The volume across all exchanges should also be of note because it was absolutely massive. It is clear the market panicked hard during the last drop, and that makes people oversell. As a bull, that is exactly what you want to see because it creates a price floor that is difficult to break. That's it for today folks! Thanks again and let me know what you think about quick video updates! It will just be me going over things I am looking at currently. Till next time! So tell me what you think? Not financial advice. Do your own research.
by mysticalwalrus
16
Bitcoin continues to work out the support area#BTC Main 17.06.2022📊 BTC: $ 20,400 ETH: $ 1,000 BITCOIN DOMINANCE 44,97% TOTAL MARKET CAP $ 0.86T Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 9 📊Bitcoin continues to work out the support area of $19.980 - $21.370 perfectly so far. On today's daily candle, it is very important to observe the volume that enters the market from the buyer's side in order to understand the degree of protection of the level. Sentiment does not allow us to move up yet (and it is unlikely to allow it in the coming weeks), but it is too early to go down, since there is no liquidity in the region of 20 - 23k $ 🤷♂ Have a good trading day👌
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by alphatechfinances
1
Witchcraft: Grand Finale UpdateSee Chart and Previous Idea. Can refine to more precise expectations from here, still just approximates. Near-term downside risk still to 362, but probability favors technical bounce from here which could trigger a squeeze... and if SPY wants to bounce exactly at the bottom of the expanding triangle I drew in, chances are it will continue to respect it 4 legs in. I just used an If-then statement conditioned on leg (d) being realized at today's low and a gap fill to 389.75 occurring following FOMC. From there I populated most likely path to (e) via Elliot Wave mixed with Witchcraft. So, something like: 370.59 -> 389.75 -> 380.54 -> 411.55 -> 397.72 -> 429.67.... -> 385.15 ------> breakout of expanding triangle at 444.29 later on in 2022. The pasted image of the 5min SPY chart is zoomed in at the price action, thus far around the visible span of this supermoon (closest orbit to earth will be tomorrow at 7:24pm.. FEDS be spookin'). It implies a local downtrend line was broken going into close, we still need to get back above the red downtrend line at the higher time frame around 379-380 to attempt first gap-fill. My gf sent me the screenshot of the moon thing and says we're going to moonwalk.. shes a witch. The (W) C above the pasted image, that stands for Witchcraft. I hope I see you all on the moon by end of June, else pray for my soul. Imperio, HeWhoMustNotBeNamed P.S. The big money doesn't know Occlumency
AMEX:SPYLong
by JerryManders
33
BTC markov method follow-up, initial pt reachedThis worked out scary well... I'd need a bigger sampe to confirm the method is consistent, but examine the following dynamics of the BTC movement through this "matrix" built around the initial symmetrical channel: - 31616.3 was my target last week when it was 28k merely because that level marked the upper bound (top point of local diamond) of the next most probable state - i.e. at the time of last analysis the most likely neigborhood of an adjacent state of 4 sections (individual boxes) had an upperbound at the 3161.3 level. - In general BTCUSD has been respecting each state like clockwork - this means when it gets near upper-bound of state it pulls back to lower bound of state and vice versa. The probability of the next state given the current state is based on the probabilities of the stochastic matrix, but one cn actually eyeball the tendency of yellow path (I call this the "yellow brick road" because it leads to the emerald city lol, i.e. new highs to around 83k by end of year; if it strays from the yellow brick road t risks meeting the wicked witch of the west, aka danger, aka risk to 13-23k to establish a bottom if we don't breakout of the markov grid (breakout would be around 34k-41k. So... the tendecy of the yellow path is like a connect 4 mid-point creek that moves +- 1 units in alternating (typically) fashion, every now and then going 2 up after a 1 down which gives it the updward drift pushing toward breakout. The reason there are intermittent consecutive ups with +2 and not +3, +4, +5,... within the +-1 pattern is because to go +2 in the time period for each state (which is constant) is still approximately linear, however after +2 it becomes non-linear - specifically expanding geometric with limit as n approaches infinity becoming exponential... The stochastic matrix is by design a system of linear equations so when a +2 and especially +3 occurs there is a bifurcation in the probability outputs (they go haywire) that signals this +3 or more w.r.t path is truly a change in structure ~ NOW THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING: during the move off last weeks lows there was a break of structure (or at least break of expected path defining structure)... it moved up for 2 consecutive states and then "jumped" up a 3rd consecutive state (the mechanics of what this means are in the above point. The interpretation of what this means is more clear; the prediction of near-term price action now becomes more complex but at the same time it confirms that volatility will escalate and that makes it a traders market again which we all should love. See below for Interpretation and Prediction: Interpretation : I mentioned last week that the rate of state transitions was starting to accelerate around the chopzone at 28-30k and because of that the probability of next state being higher with upper bound (and therefore initial target) of 31616.3 was a lot closer to 1 than 0 (previously the transition probabilities had been around 74-78%, the initial shift took the probability to 88. Now the rate that the shift is accelerating has increased substantially and, thus, forced the path structure to a non-linear system. The question now becomes, (a) will it remain non-linear (a way to evaluate at a non-linear level via approximation will be to redefine the size of a state to be proportional with the degree of the non-linear form (e.g. quadratic (which is where it is currently would require a neighborhood of 8 (2 x 4) sections to capture the implied range)... if not (a) then it would likely exhibit properties similar to when an asset goes parabolic and then breaks down when the movement becomes unstable - in our case it would imply a sharp pullback to around 29-30k (equal but opposite to the non-linear degree realized by the movement to local maximum state) and that would ultimately reset back to the linear path (i.e. back into the sideways consolidation). b) is the bifurcation to non-linear path necessary to initiate the breakout from consolidation (rather than an anomaly that reverts back to linear base). (b) is the most plausible if it establishes new support here at the 31616.3. We are about to see moment of truth at this very moment and I have mapped out how to play both of the 2 possibilities: PREDICTION: - If 31616.3 can hold here as support, expect next leg up to attempt breakout around 34k-37k (has 41k old support above that to deal with ut were not there yet - if this doesn't hold it will test support around 30.8k, which if that fails expect the reset-to-linear scenario back down to the 28-30k range. - A third possibility (c) is that it over-corrects from the bifurcation in structure and goes from non-linear at degree +2-+3 into a non-linear -2 to -3 (which could take it to 23k-13k. Either way... we're not in Kansas anymore don't expect the boring sideways price action recently to continue from here. I'll update on which scenario has higher probability given condition around if it holds 31616.3. ~Best Knocksville Johnny
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by JerryManders
BTCUSDT MAY 2021 FRACTAL AND TIMELINEImportant things to note: BTC has been sticking to my area of interest very well. The correlation to QQQ has been dropping little by little since May 12. BTC shorts vs longs look good. Funding rates have been neutral. I noticed similarities with the May 2021 fractal and our recent drop. The lower end of the fractal would touch 24k in BTCUSD terms which is roughly the cost basis for BTC. The timing of the fractal also lines up roughly with Fed tightening. Nothing happens exactly as it did before, so keep that in mind. Asia has been buying the bottom heavily. There was a huge drop in Whale held coins but it looks like that vast majority of them were from LUNA. Entity adjusted dormancy flow is scraping the bottom of the barrel (good sign) The Z score isn't quite there yet. Also the 200W MA is around 22k and everyone is waiting for it apparently. Hey everyone! So I have been staring at the fractal for a few days now. I know I know, the May 2021 fractal is a bit played out, but I think people were just using it at the wrong time. There are definitely similarities here in not only the structure, but the timing of upcoming events. The Fed will start tightening on June 1st which I am sure will send the market in a panic, and possibly crack the bond market. Strangely, this lines up perfectly with the fractal spiking down after the squeeze upward. What is also interesting is when I use this fractal on the BTCUSD chart, the lowest candle of the fractal almost touches the cost basis for BTC (24k). It actually misses it by $200. I mentioned previously that the area of interest will act as a gravitational black hole, sucking price action toward it due to the volume that changed hands in that area. Well I said the only thing that will kick the price away from this region would be a price squeeze or a significant event. The fact that the price is in this range for awhile will naturally cause the price to squeeze so it is no surprise to see that represented in the fractal. However, the timing of the fed tightening relative to the fractal is very interesting. I believed that the summer would be max pain for BTC. This fractal represents that very well. The price starts to recover about a month after the tightening starts which makes sense due to the low supply of BTC even at this price. That is close enough for me! Obviously, nothing happens exactly as it did before, but I found all of these coincidences very interesting to say the least. All other metrics for BTC whether it be whale accumulation, funding rates, short vs longs, supply, dormancy flow, hashrate and overall supply look great. Anyways, I will continue to keep you all updated! Thanks again everyone! So tell me what you think? Not financial advice. Do your own research.
by mysticalwalrus
2
Update to my recent ideaI posted a bullish UPST view recently, but I want to add some important observations that should be noted for anyone playing this tomorrow: -I can't pretend that unfilled gap from last April-May around 61 doesn't post a major risk here. However, take a look back at the price action last May earnings and you'll notice a common theme, namely, pre-earnings the price came off a bullish anti-cypher harmonic and tested that lower 80 level at the top of the gap for support going onto the report (not shown in chart but take a look for yourself)... due to the high short interest at the time and the earnings beat it absolutely took off to the upside post-ER. Fortunately for UPST bulls currently, heavily shorted and Friday it did the same thing where it tested that upper gap and held so I believe if they impress with this report it will not need to fill that gap (just yet). However, I will be hedging accordingly. The May 13 options are priced for a move to 61-107 (wow)... everyone's thinking it, I'm just saying it THIS REPORT NEEDS TO BE $$$$ - Support to the bullish view can be seen clearly in this 2 hour interval view with that stochastic RSI and the RSI primed for liftoff; furthermore, double completed bullish harmonics coming into this with the same anti-cypher pattern in the most recent harmonic - If this pops it needs to keep in the upper section of Gann fan for continuation - it needs to keep up with time - Please refer to the RSI at the 1D level (i.e. see my last post or refer to it on your own chart) - I did a full statistical eval. on the performance over the full history of UPST using RSI as a sole trade signal and it was very impressive. 88% reliability (measured this by the percentage of successful trades, e.g. if RSI purple crossed above yellow and upside move materialized that = successful trade, and vice versa for bearish crosses). 54% capture rate (this is actually extremely rare for trading with a sole indicator, but the idea is after a signal how much of the move on average did the signal capture, e.g. from open long to close long). Average upside move after bullish crosses was +65%... this thing can swing! Expectations Bullish case: gap to low 100s and if we see continuation it can run to 114, 120s, 150s, low 170s.. the extent of this continuation (i.e. which of those levels will actually be realized) will depend on market environment and/or if the short interest data are up to date (I'm seeing 28.5% short float, 2 days to cover so this can happen fast if it does move to mid 100s I wouldn't be surprised but I don't think it will be sustained unless whole market squeezes, 38% recent short increase). After bullish run ends (possibly low 170s but I'll be taking profits at 120-150 tbh) I would not be surprised if this whipsaws and fills that gap down to 61. Bearish case: on a miss this could get hit down to gap fill and, hate to say it, but that downward momentum could send it on continuation down to around 35.. I didn't include elliot wave in this but UPST is, after all, trying to complete a rather funky corrective cycle before beginning next bullish impulse cycle. If someone has that corrective count mapped out I would be very interested in seeing it because I couldn't quite pin it. Good luck to all, not financial advice but expect some very interesting and volatile price action in the weeks to come.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by JerryManders
7