UPRO
SPX Has a downside biasThe ultimate oscilator has made a notable divergence and looks to be breaking to the downside of the triangle it has formed. Slow stochastics has a downside bias look to it imo. I am not planning to sell at friday's lows, although would look for observed resistance on rallies to sell the es. I believe the es & spx are in a sell the rallies mode at the moment. Until price shows me something different, I believe the es and spx could correct further. Thinking out load the es could trade to 1854 to 1879 or I am smoking to much crack.... Levels of interest next week 2115-2120 sell the rallies. Downside targets next week 2072 2034/32 Don't have a chrystal ball at the moment so please forgive me if the levels are all quackery. As always, I will use a stop if I am wrong. IMHO, not having a stop is like having sex with an aids patient, might get away with it once or twice, but eventually you will get caught. Note, I can change my mind in a moment if market conditions change.
Bullish Butterfly Possible Bullish Reversal for ATH RetestBullish Butterfly
This could lead up to a bullish reversal for further upmove to retest ATH.
Believe we will see some small retracement here and then possible further upmove.
What is still needed in the bigger ED is the classic overthrow in the last 5th wave.
I think we will see that overthrow this time around in this kast C wave up. Possibly in a 5 wave up after possible dbl bottom .... Even above the 2138.04. Possible target right now 2154.
Fear not - Trade what you see
@BLawrenceM
Nunca Digas No When Bulls still breathing! Nunca Digas No = Never Say No
Could still be missing the last - 5th wave up. One of the more frustrating part of working with EW
is the doubt of the 5th wave... is it in??? You only know in hindsight
SP Have today and in after hours made a retrace and found support.
TheRetrace made a megaphone in the 3x inverse derivative of the SP - the SPXU
Right now a little hammer candle is forming. That could be a 4th wave and a 5th still to come.
I have in purple drawn a possible wave count of the last wave if th 5th is still to come
So.... Nunca Digas No!
@BLawrenceM
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Final bull run in Pamplona UPRO bullish argument for targetFinal bullrun
I see 145.35 as target for this last bull run before "Broken Arrow"
Fear not ... believe what you see and trade it
@BLawrenceM
This chart is made the way it is - without indicators or drawings ...anything except price action. This is due to a do or dare on twitter.
@fyrstikken and Austerity Sucks are leveraged 10 times short and I have promised to stay long over night. This is where I see price heading.
Yeah I know what you think but trading was boring today except trading Giga. That was fun :)
Some extra from twitter. Really a waste of time but if you have some time to kill...be my guest ;)
In all fairness I bring you the full conversation with @fyrstikken and @Austerity_sucks
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BROKEN ARROW... We were trading soldiersBroken Arrow
SP are in the final stages of wave 5 in an Ending Diagonal ...just before "Broken Arrow".
The chart above shows the final A-B-C in an Elliott Wave count having 5 waves up from 666,79
As FED-chair Ms.Yellen just proclaimed for the 2nd time... Stocks are overvalued.
First time was the signal for preparing - cause FEDs trading desk will pull out and
switch off bullish price control.
Now it's serious meant you have a fortnight maximum if not less.
The A-wave up came this fridayand tested the 88,6 retrace of the latest swing high and low
From there ( monday or tuesday I see SP will have a shallow B-wave before the final C-wave.
The C-wave will possibly bring the SP to 2138.04 - the 1.618 extension of the
2007 high at 1,576.09 to 666.79 - 2009 low and leave ....a Broken Arrow.
I'm not short or long... will keep my powder dry for the short or trade other instruments than the indexes.
Fear not... believe what you see and trade it.
@BLawrenceM
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Broken Arrow?
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Running Out of Time - The Bullish Argument for the SPA Bearish Deep Crap
Could be in spe. BUT so far highly speculative.
Conditions: A flush tomorrow for the 88,6 retrace of the X to A-leg (2082 handle) no more no less.
This could suck in bears and create a bear trap. It has to be the 88.6 retrace... (A must)
Then we have to see a hard reversal for creating a short squeeze that could propel the D leg up for a BLOW off top
Clues to support this possibility:
We have B-leg retracing 88.6 of the X to A-leg.
If we get the C-leg retracing 88,6 of the X to A-leg ... the setup for the 1.618 extension is then ready to pan out.
RSI is a its low so could turn up after a flush
Fear not ...believe in what you see
@BLawrenceM
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Stops taken out in SPY This massive spike came across yesterday. One day before quadruple witching and holliday trading season.
With stops taken out and a huge spike in volume too, market should be ready for the retail investor to bring price to the final top at the 1.618 extension (orange line) from the subprime top to 666.79 low.
It's here being called due to possible human error. Lmao... blogs.barrons.com
Safe trading ladies and gents!
@BLawrenceM
EW-count Wave 5.... when the light go out Count on the chart...speaks for it selfs.
I'm long at the moment but 2025 seems to be where wave 5 will have resistance...
If we then see a shallow retrace this wave 5 could be wave 1 of 5 ....and a parabolic move could be at our hands
Time will tell .... as all ways!
Safe trading
@BLawrenceM
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3 drive to a bottom & end of corrective ABCD harmonic Looks like Fed is setting the market up for a pop on there announcement later today at 2 o'clock.
Market would then have made a perfect ABCD correction (yellow lines) at the 1.272 fib and looks like a 3 drive to a bottom at the same time (green lines). We would at the same time have seen a gap close
Fisher looks also ready for a bounce making a possible divergens
That would set the market up for a 5th and final wave up.
Time will tell
Safe trading !
@BLawrenceM
More than a hunk of meat to the bearsIf indeed the top is in - here is a bullish count for SPXU - 3X SPX
I see a wave 1 up in 5 waves and a wave 2 down yesterday. Today we see wave 1 of 3 and a possible wave 2 of 3 as a retrace.
A 3.168 ext of wave 1 will close the gap at 52.20- 52.59
Safe trading ladies and gents!
The End................... !This is a classic ending diagonal with waves making 3-3-3-3-3 all the way to the E-leg ending by making an over throw and the E-leg making a perfect harmonic ABCD pattern.
(Could though be drawn with E only being the C-leg. If that's the case we will see the summer passing by with SP ready to be shorted when smart money returns).
Safe trading Ladies & Gents.
@BLawrenceM
Ending diagonal: thepatternsite.com
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The last 3 steps to heavenIf the 5th wave isn't truncated then this could be the last 3 steps to heaven
Would probably take a rate cut from the ECB tomorrow
In other words... end of major 3rd wave up - before a pull back
Safe trading ladies & gents!
@BlawrenceM
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Gartley butterfly A support for the bearish SP countUPRO normally showing gabs more clearly then the index.
Price has made a exact 3.618 fib ext. of wave 1 and stopped at gab
I could see chop here due to low volume ending up Friday with a gab close and reaching the exact 88,6 retrace.
OR a gab close today and a bad NFP report tomorrow bringing the Gartley butterfly in play.
I will take a short at 88,6 as a low risk entry.
Safe trading ladies and gents!
@BLawrenceM
IHS, EW, Ending Diagonal... Bullish countRather misty chart I know... Lots of notations on chart but i'll break it down into one thing...
further up......in a slow pace - fits with summer vacation coming up.
Price action has made a possible IHS. With target around 1960. Here comes also the 4.168 fib ext. of the high of wave i in the the final 5th of 5th in major wave (3 or C).
At the same time price have mad an ending diagonal (ED) - the Green line are the longer term. There is also a narrower ED with line going through the last 3 top. (pink color) .
It's all possibilities ... where it all ends... Your guess is as good as mine.
When in doubt... stay out... that will be my advice!
Time will show.... as always
Safe trading ladies and gents!
@BLawrenceM
I'm more often on twitter with updates.... so follow me there!