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Uranium

Price finally chases the inflating element UranniumIn the Uranium market, to keep all atomic plants going, the offer must improve. There was a good interview on Kitco News explaining the current movement. These low prices are not even worth mining for some companies and not enough volumes of Uranium are on the market as a result. All Uranium stocks I've got on my watchlist grew significantly with ENCUF and ISNF leading the market. I expect this rally to continue, but I also hope there is going to be a short break before the continuation as I want to buy some more. From the technical perspective, ISENF broke above 6 months' consolidation high rallying 97% in 14 days. That's a lot... Anyway, I would only buy if the retracement is big and convincing. There should still be some time to reaccumulate. While mining output is insufficient, there is still enough Uranium to keep going for a long time. Good luck!
OTC:ISENFLong
by OrcChieftain
The case for Uranium: Master Plan with a Price Target of 100$+In the early 2000s, the flooding of the McArthur River and Cigar Lake mines were immediate black swan catalysts that further accelerated the existing bull market into a mania moving uranium spot prices to a peak of $150/lb in 2007. The flight to commodities as an inflation hedge following the Great Recession served as an additional catalyst underpinning the macroeconomics behind the commodity boom of the 2000s. The last bull run ended when higher supply combined with the fallout from the Fukishima nuclear disaster sealed uranium into a now decade long secular bear market. Given the lack of speculation, mines today have been idled and the industry has been in consolidation and liquidation ever since. Over the past decade, Uranium prices have descended into the abyss. Because it costs more than $50/lb to mine uranium, the current spot prices indicate an extreme imbalance. The former Soviet state-owned-enterprise, now publicly traded Kazatomprom has forced cheap supply onto the market over the last decade, however overly bearish sentiment has held back the necessary investment in new mines and exploration leading to consistent annual supply deficits. New reactor construction in China and India has lead to strong growth in uranium fuel demand. Given the extreme asymmetry and cyclicality of uranium spot prices, investors are presented with a once in a lifetime opportunity. On top of that, COVID19 has lead to further supply constraints. Cameco's Cigar Lake Mine, which accounted for 18% of worlds supply, was and remains closed. Now, mining companies such as Denison have started actively buying uranium off of the spot market to fulfill their obligations. Its only a question of time until the remaining supply wont be enough to fill demand. At that point, we could experience a bull market in Uranium and the mining companies of epic proportions. Note that uranium bull markets are multi-year to even decade long affairs. My estimation is that we will see prices go to around 50$ in the short term, and then continue a rise up to the 70-90$ region, where price could be sustained for longer periods. However, on shorter timeframes, this longer term target could certainly be overshot, and by a lot. Does 150$/lb sound realistic? Perhaps. While we haven't had a bear market as severe preceding this bull market as we had in the early 2000s, you would need to account for other factors too. Adjusted for Inflation, 150$ in 2007 would be around 200$ in todays prices. On top of that, there could be additional catalists coming up along the way. My plan is to start selling my miners once we reach the 70-90$ range, and let a portion run to see how high we can go. If we go significantly above 100$, I will make sure to not sell the rest of my shares below 100$ U308. Keep in mind that miners tend top out before the price of actual Uranium. Catching the top will be difficult, and there probably wont be a lot of time for it. My favourite ways to play this is to go long on $UUUU, $DNN, $CVV, $FCU, $NXG, $URE, $CCJ. Since there are only about 20 publicly traded mining companies with (high) exposure to the uranium market, of which around 15 are viable investments in my oppinion, even a "spray and pray" approach probably will likely be able to reap in significant returns if my thesis plays out. Once the tide rises, it wont matter too much in which boat youre in.
COMEX:UX1!Long
by JaceStryker
5
UEC Uranium about to resume upward moveUEC recently formed a double bottom on the daily chart. Confirmation of the double bottom should happen when the peak in between the bottoms is broken. That recently happened when $2.37 was broken. The double bottom also touches off the 0.618 fib retracement level after a strong run up beginning in November and ending in June. The price action has poked its head above the 200 SMA which I take as a bullish sign. Price has dipped since the open today. I will look to place a stop buy around today's high of $2.48 to see the upward momentum continue. By this time the 9 and 21 SMAs will likely have crossed. Note this happened in July also above the 200 SMA but price fell to make the second bottom. Interested in your views, opinions, correction and alternative ways at looking at this.
AMEX:UECLong
by JBlack99
Short term View of Fission UraniumMost uranium companies are following the same kind of trends after testing highs earlier this year. Looking to the $0.46 mark to start off the path back to highs. Uranium sector FA is extremely bullish and Fission sits on a world class deposit. This company has underperformed for quite a while due to negative news surrounding the old CEO as well as dilution. Moving into the maturation of the uranium bull market I expect Fission to be one of the big winners, either through performance or through a buyout.
FLong
by UnknownUnicorn2989070
UUUU Clean Green Energy PlayWIth all the hype about green energy, the only sustainable and reliable form of clean energy is nuclear (maybe hydro but thats another story). Nuclear Power plants have not been meddled with for about 40 years. Many of those which are being decommissioned (???). Solar and wind produce more toxic waste to the environment when compared to nuclear. Which nuclear waste goes into safe long term storage in water pools at the power plant or in a dry cask. This "used" up fuel can be reprocessed and used again. Spot price of uranium being at some low spot, the ability to buy and hold millions of pounds of uranium, and Sprott adding physical uranium to markets (SRUUF) is a big win for the long term bullish cycle coming into these uranium/energy plays.
AMEX:UUUULong
by BrianTheeFirst
Natural Gas Breakout is Imminent Natural Gas has already been bullish over a trend duration (3 months or more) as it recovered from the Covid Global Deflation. Now Natural Gas is quietly setting up for a bullish TAIL Breakout, i.e. the start of the next bull market in energy and commodities. To call the next commodity supercycle is a little early but we can see several factors hinting at that over the coming 1-3 years. Regardless, we need to trade the market in front of us, and as such we only really care about the next 3 months when it comes to near-term risk management. Over the next 2-3 months I would not be surprised to see Natural Gas hit a multi-year high between $4 and $6. Given that inflation is non-linear and is really accelerating, its conceivable it could go to $10 in a major commodity reflation move. Our Macro Nowcasting Machines with a 60-90% success rate in predicting growth and inflation 3-5 months out (the forecast gets more accurate the closer we get) says that Quad 2 growth and inflation accelerating will peak just before the summer. April-May time period. Following that will be a decelerating of growth and inflation, so we will have to risk manage that drawdown proactively. But we are not there yet so we must focus on Natural Gas's upside in the immediate term. The same holds true for commodities broadly, including uranium, fertilizer, agriculture, crude, and copper/industrial metals. Looking at the 1H timeframe we can see a healthy consolidation of higher lows and volume/momentum indicators that are not near being overbought. The volatility signal shows volatility can go much lower which is a good thing for price. Breakout is imminent. Looking at Natty through the lense of market positioning, the net long position in natty more than doubled the week before last (last week's data comes out tomorrow, will provide an update) which is a huge move. The 3month average net long was added in a single week. But the max net long position over 3Y lookback is 2.5x the current net long. In summary, Natty is not crowded, it is not a consensus position, and has significant upside. If you haven't been hedging for inflation that last 5-10 months where have you been?
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
UEX - the deal needs time Looks like the PR scramble to spin the deal is going to require a little work. Roger is the man and he's going to get it done, UEX is moving up into a new class of Uranium stocks. Sad that it's been downgraded to .70. I think that will work itself out as the assets start to pay off. Denison as much as I hate them as a company certainly did a number on this thing and basically fucked it up for everyone but the shareholders of JCU. All told, we go down...then we go up. Getting a piece of some of the biggest plays in North America can only be a good thing as reactors come back online and China keeps booming.
ULong
by Honkytime