Short term View of Fission UraniumMost uranium companies are following the same kind of trends after testing highs earlier this year. Looking to the $0.46 mark to start off the path back to highs. Uranium sector FA is extremely bullish and Fission sits on a world class deposit. This company has underperformed for quite a while due to negative news surrounding the old CEO as well as dilution. Moving into the maturation of the uranium bull market I expect Fission to be one of the big winners, either through performance or through a buyout.
Uranium
UUUU Clean Green Energy PlayWIth all the hype about green energy, the only sustainable and reliable form of clean energy is nuclear (maybe hydro but thats another story). Nuclear Power plants have not been meddled with for about 40 years. Many of those which are being decommissioned (???). Solar and wind produce more toxic waste to the environment when compared to nuclear. Which nuclear waste goes into safe long term storage in water pools at the power plant or in a dry cask. This "used" up fuel can be reprocessed and used again. Spot price of uranium being at some low spot, the ability to buy and hold millions of pounds of uranium, and Sprott adding physical uranium to markets (SRUUF) is a big win for the long term bullish cycle coming into these uranium/energy plays.
Natural Gas Breakout is Imminent Natural Gas has already been bullish over a trend duration (3 months or more) as it recovered from the Covid Global Deflation. Now Natural Gas is quietly setting up for a bullish TAIL Breakout, i.e. the start of the next bull market in energy and commodities.
To call the next commodity supercycle is a little early but we can see several factors hinting at that over the coming 1-3 years. Regardless, we need to trade the market in front of us, and as such we only really care about the next 3 months when it comes to near-term risk management.
Over the next 2-3 months I would not be surprised to see Natural Gas hit a multi-year high between $4 and $6. Given that inflation is non-linear and is really accelerating, its conceivable it could go to $10 in a major commodity reflation move.
Our Macro Nowcasting Machines with a 60-90% success rate in predicting growth and inflation 3-5 months out (the forecast gets more accurate the closer we get) says that Quad 2 growth and inflation accelerating will peak just before the summer. April-May time period. Following that will be a decelerating of growth and inflation, so we will have to risk manage that drawdown proactively. But we are not there yet so we must focus on Natural Gas's upside in the immediate term. The same holds true for commodities broadly, including uranium, fertilizer, agriculture, crude, and copper/industrial metals.
Looking at the 1H timeframe we can see a healthy consolidation of higher lows and volume/momentum indicators that are not near being overbought. The volatility signal shows volatility can go much lower which is a good thing for price. Breakout is imminent.
Looking at Natty through the lense of market positioning, the net long position in natty more than doubled the week before last (last week's data comes out tomorrow, will provide an update) which is a huge move. The 3month average net long was added in a single week. But the max net long position over 3Y lookback is 2.5x the current net long. In summary, Natty is not crowded, it is not a consensus position, and has significant upside.
If you haven't been hedging for inflation that last 5-10 months where have you been?
$URA - Uranium ETF - we have liftoffThe Global X Uranium ETF (URA) provides investors access to a broad range of companies involved in uranium mining and the production of nuclear components, including those in extraction, refining, exploration, or manufacturing of equipment for the uranium and nuclear industries.
Breaking downtrend which has been in place for the last 2 months. Looks like this is ready for its next leg higher.. (MACD also crossing up)
PEN Weekly ChartPEN on the weekly looks like market structure could be making HH and HL's, has just hit the 100MA weekly average and could possibly bounce here for the next leg up.
PEN Trend reversal?PEN has been in a big prolonged downtrend for over 10 years, looks to be forming a bottom here and possibly starting new market structure as shown in the next chart. You can clearly see a huge increase in volume building and has now closed above the 20MA on the monthly chart. Uranium etf has had some big gains over the last few months helping to lift PEN.
UEX - the deal needs time Looks like the PR scramble to spin the deal is going to require a little work. Roger is the man and he's going to get it done, UEX is moving up into a new class of Uranium stocks. Sad that it's been downgraded to .70. I think that will work itself out as the assets start to pay off. Denison as much as I hate them as a company certainly did a number on this thing and basically fucked it up for everyone but the shareholders of JCU. All told, we go down...then we go up. Getting a piece of some of the biggest plays in North America can only be a good thing as reactors come back online and China keeps booming.
Uranium Sector UpdateSince I get a lot of questions about my UUUU positioning, I thought I would take a moment to see what the wider sector looks like. Keeping it simple looking at CCJ as the big papa.
Looks like there is some time left for correction into August. Timing is not reliable here, but the levels are significant.
Has yellow cake created a top? Is this the dip we've all been waiting for, or is it nuclear disaster?
URC poppingThis is another example of a trading pattern that I trade regularly, you just have to look for it.
AZURF$AZURF - weekly timeframe points out for a golden cross and bullish symmetrical triangle. Stoch oversold and RSI is in uptrend direction. #uranium Got dry powder left?
MEGA Looking GoodMega continues to move up. Uranium junior with bullish trend. Volume showing up. Staying long.
UUUU top out at 10Update to my UUUU chart. I last posted a while back before breaking out of the wedge where I proposed repositioning if we failed to break and challenge the red trend resistance.
Since we have broken the wedge to test the RED. The RED was stiff and we will now retrace the move since April. This part of the wave structure would usually retrace shallowly, but I present the deepest possible retrace will test the 50 dMA.
Once the retrace is complete we could test the RED resistance. If broken we test 10. If fails, we probably sideways until true spot market moves, potentially nearer September.
My last entry was at 5.57 and a strong push to 10 would be 80% before considering a reposition to somewhere lower in the channel (As per the previous post)
Energy Fuel - Deja Vu Pattern, Cup Could Break to the UpsideEnergy Fuels is the leading U.S. producer of uranium – the fuel for carbon- and emission-free nuclear energy. Nuclear energy is expected to see strong growth in the coming years, as nations around the world work to provide plentiful and affordable energy, while combating climate change and air pollution.
Energy Fuels is also a major U.S. producer of vanadium and an emerging player in the commercial rare earth business where its work is helping to reestablish a fully integrated U.S. supply chain.
With a truly unique portfolio, Energy Fuels has more production capacity, licensed mines and processing facilities, and in-ground uranium resources than any other U.S. producer. It boasts diverse cashflow-generating opportunities, including vanadium production, uranium recycling and rare earth processing.
Denison Mines - Must Own Uranium PlayBullish engulfing forming with the last green candle absorbsing the last 3 candles.
-/ In order for the bullish engulfing to confirm, the next candle must be green.
-/ If not confirmed, price could test the 50 days MA, before accelerating.
-/ RSI and Stochastics are in positive territory and look good.
STRATEGIC PROJECT PORTFOLIO:
-/ 90% interest in flagship Wheeler River project – largest undeveloped uranium project in infrastructure rich eastern Athabasca Basin, with the potential to be a “top 5” producing mine
-/ 22.5% interest in operating McClean Lake Uranium Mill – 6M lbs U3O8 excess licensed capacity, currently producing +12% of global uranium production
-/ Additional leverage to the uranium price with interests in existing uranium resources at McClean Lake, Midwest, and Waterbury Lake
-/ ~280,000 hectares of prospective exploration ground in the Athabasca Basin
-/ Internal sources of cash flow from management of Uranium Participation Corp. (TSX-U), and Denison's Closed Mines Services, minimizing dilution to existing shareholders
FLAGSHIP WHEELER RIVER PROJECT:
-/Largest undeveloped uranium project in infrastructure rich eastern Athabasca Basin, including an estimated 132M lbs U3O8 in Indicated resources plus 3M lbs U3O8 in Inferred resources.
-/ Low estimated operating costs, with lowest estimate of initial CAPEX required to build amongst Athabasca Basin development projects(1)
-/Existing infrastructure supporting mining operations in proximity to Wheeler River – including 4 licensed uranium mines, 3 licensed uranium mills, and access to the provincial power grid and highway network – reduces development risk profile
UUUU ENERGY FUELS INCNext stop is $7.92 if we breakout this level
hold your hats. Ichimoku Cloud show all signs of farther advance
Baselode Energy - Great Uranium LeverageBaselode Energy Corp is a fully-funded Uranium exploration company looking for the next world-class deposit in the Athabasca Basin area of northern Saskatchewan, Canada. The company is focused on discovering near-surface, basement-hosted, high-grade Uranium orebodies outside of the Athabasca Basin.
