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XAUUSD | Market outlookGold Reserve Diversification: At the LBMA conference, central bank representatives shared that gold purchases are driven by financial and strategic goals. US Election Impact: Uncertainty over the upcoming presidential elections, with Trump and Harris closely tied in polls, is prompting banks to hedge risks. Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East are also boosting gold, with Israel expressing readiness to target Iran's military infrastructure. Price Trends: Long-term trend: Upward, aiming to break the historical high of 2685.00 . Potential targets: 2750.00 and 2810.00 if consolidation succeeds. Support and Correction: If the price drops to 2602.00 , long positions toward 2685.00 are favourable. A breakout below 2602.00 could trigger a correction targeting 2546.00 and 2471.00 . Medium-term trend: Correction: Last week’s correction did not reach key support at 2575.61–2564.61 . If a reversal occurs, the price could rise to 2685.61 and potentially 2712.70–2701.70 . Correction Scenario: If another correction develops, the price may revisit 2575.61–2564.61 , followed by growth toward 2625.00 and 2685.00 .
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DCFX-TA
Heavy Exports Weighing Down SoybeansSoybean is among the world’s most traded crop. It is used in various industries. Soybean drives global food prices. It can tilt trade balances of an entire nation. This paper describes the importance of Soybean. It lists key producers, consumer and maps the harvesting cycle across the calendar by top producing countries. Given rising Brazilian exports, higher US planting, and asset manager’s positioning, this paper articulates a case study for a short position in CME Soybeans Futures delivering a 1.3x reward to risk with entry at USc 1,452.5/bushel and target of USc 1,350/bushel hedged by a stop at USc 1,530/bushel. SOYBEAN IS THE WORLD’S MOST TRADED GRAIN Soybean is high in protein. Hence, it is a key component of livestock feed for meat & dairy production. Rising consumption of the latter two continues to push Soybeans demand. Two-thirds of Soybean is used for crushing into oil and meal. Soybean oil is among the most widely used vegetable oils. It is also used as biodiesel. The two American continents form 80% of global production. Brazil (42%) and the US (31%) are the two largest producers of Soybeans. Argentina is a distant third (7%). China drives demand. It is the largest importer of Soybeans. It comprises 60% of global imports. Soybeans is used to feed China’s massive livestock. Soybean prices are cyclical and prone to price shocks. HARVESTING CYCLE, WEATHER & TRADE POLICY HUGELY INFLUENCES PRICES Prices vary through the year. It is lowest at harvest. Increases during the year with rising inventory holding costs. Harvest seasons are spread differently across North & South America. US harvest is from September to November. While the Brazil & Argentina harvest from March until June. Not surprisingly, Brazilian and US harvest has an enormous impact on Soybean prices. Actual production deviating from expectations in these two majors can send prices surging or tumbling. Soybean prices since 2015 is visualised below. Prices have structurally moved up. Prices have surged driven by robust demand since 2020. Soybean prices on average have ranged 14% from its lowest to the highest over the last eight years with large price gyrations in 2016 and 2020. Price behaviour during and post-harvest since 2015 is visually described in the heatmap below. All things being equal, Soybean prices trend lower during harvesting followed by price recovery post-harvest. However, each year presents idiosyncratic conditions related to weather, trade policy, yield and output, causing price fluctuation. Beyond the harvest cycle, climate has a significant impact. North and South America is heavily affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation which is a natural climate pattern causing hotter/dryer climate every three to seven years. El- Niño also elevates the chances of droughts and floods. Demand for Soybean Oil is also impacted by supply and demand of other vegetable oils like Palm Oil due to substitution effect. Global trade policy has a considerable influence too. Trade restrictions can disrupt global supply-demand balance, resulting in increased volatility. HIGHER PLANTING IN US, RISING BRAZILIAN EXPORTS, AND FALLING YIELDS IN ARGENTINA USA : In its recent Market Outlook, the USDA reported that US farmers were planning to plant marginally higher than last year but below market expectations. As per National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), soybean crushing spiked to a 15-month high and the second highest level for any month on record in March. The crushing pace jumped as processors bounce back from maintenance related downtime. Brazil : Soybean exports from Brazil surged 42.5% YoY during the first half of April. Bean prices have trended lower on larger than expected supply. Argentina : USDA reduced its forecast of Argentina’s soybean crop to twenty-seven million metric tons down from thirty-three million metric tons last month. Argentina’s soybean yields sunk to historical lows last week as per Buenos Aires Grains Exchange’s (BAGE) weekly report. BAGE warned that its projection, currently at twenty-five million metric tons, could be reduced if yield remains suppressed. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT Two-thirds of soybean crop is crushed into oil and meal. The crush spread, also sometimes referred to as simply the crush, refers to the difference between the value of soybean meal and oil and the price of soybeans. The “crush” is gross processing margin from crushing soybeans. As such, these three products are deeply intertwined. Asset managers have reduced net longs in all three contracts since the start of 2023. Intriguingly, asset managers have reduced net longs much more sharply for Oil and Meal relative to Soybeans. TRADE SET UP Four key drivers at play. First, rising supply from Brazil. Second, higher planting by US farmers. Third, bearish asset manager positioning. Finally, first three offset by marginal impact of lower yields in Argentina. In forming a holistic view, this paper posits a short position in CME Soybeans July contract. Each lot provides exposure to 5,000 bushels (~136 tons). Prices are quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Minimum price fluctuation (tick) is one-fourth of one-cent. Therefore, every tick represents a change of USD 12.50 per lot. ● Entry: USc 1,452.5 ● Target: USc 1,350 ● Stop: USc 1,530 ● Profit at target: USD 5,125 ● Loss at stop: USD 3,875 ● Reward-to-risk: 1.3x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZSN2023Short
by mintdotfinance
comparison between PSTG (pure storage) and NIO (nio).on the right we have nio, trying today to break over the MA 50 dynamic resistance, and on the left we have pure storage, trying to bounce off the MA 200. as you can see, both of them bounced off the MA 200, but while nio did jump high today, pure storage didn't yet. because of that, I believe we will see a jump within 2 weeks in pure storage too, not a big %, but yet not a trash can. anyway, rejecting the MA 200 4 times is an amazing thing, and if the price can start to climb again, we may see it reaching a new high in both nio and pstg. lastly, I would suggest you to check nio and compare it to pstg whenever it is possible, as long as the correlation between the 2 remains. logarithmic chart basic chart
NYSE:NIO
by camelot0707
AUD/USD: Bulls Take Control in Short Term Technically bullish - currently overbought, AUD/USD should make a break above 0.70000 price level after some slight consolidation/ pullback. US-China Trade developments will continue to take the spotlight for AUD pairs in 2020; With Phase 1 Deal to be signed sometime in January, (which includes Tariff reductions) AU bulls should temporarily take control..and then we move into Phase 2 of 3.. RBA expected to cut cash rate at their February meeting in order to further support growth for small businesses in particular. FED expected to stay on hold. Support levels: 0.6940 0.6900 0.6865 Resistance levels: 0.7000 0.7035 0.7070 *Trade at you own risk off of your own analysis ;) -Krecioch
by Krecioch
1
AUDEURDespite the RBA setting a dovish when it comes to all things $AUD this spike in price action has caught my eye, enough for me to justify a pre-emptive move in the name of $AUD strength. Trump's impeachment at the house will not have an impact because the senate where Republicans hold the majority will not vote against their own political leader (well at least that is what the general consensus is); however this does not make Trump look good in the public eye and with elections around the corner this threatens his re-election prospects. Which is enough to garner a few smiles across the pacific in China, where a scenario of Trump not in office would surely improve Chinas seat at the table of negotiations.
Long
by AtacamaFund
Trump and US-China Deal Attract the AttentionIt was risk-on mood after yesterday Trump teased traders with hope of a US-China trade deal by tweeting “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!” If the both sides can’t reach an agreement within the next few days, additional tariffs will be imposed on imported Chinese goods on Sunday, December 15th. If a deal is reached before Sunday, the tariffs will likely not be imposed, and current tariffs may be rolled back. The big question that remains is, “How much of the existing tariffs will be rolled back?” We saw following reports by the Wall Street Journal that U.S. negotiators offered to cut tariffs by 50%. But until Trump makes an official announcement, which must occur before December 15, the tariffs could still be imposed. The Dow Jones index has touched new record highs yesterday at $28,225. At this point in time it’s likely that we will continue to see pullbacks as buying opportunities. If the price break above the yesterday's high we could expect the bulls to extend the upside momentum towards 28,250 (the upper line of Bollinger Bands). But we wouldn’t be surprised at all that if by the end of the day Friday we don’t get any hint of a delay of the tariffs by Donald Trump and than the stock market pulls back significantly. The first support of course is the psychological 28,000 level. The 50-day SMA follow it, which has risen to 27,374. A clear break here could send DJIA 30 to retest the Dec. low at 27,325. If the tariffs do in fact go into effect, it’s likely that this market will gap down on Monday, so at this point it’s probably best to stay aside. All things being equal, but we think that the next 24 hours or so could be a bit dicey. In the next trading day you can throw out technicals of the window and it's possible to see "Buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading. Don’t forget the “Santa Claus rally” either.
TVC:DJILong
by ForexTrendline
AU: Focus on TradeFundamental: RBA statement seemed "hawkish" on growth but expected persistently low rates through Q2 2020...GDP and Retail Sales confirmed continued slow growth. USD is heading into NFP with a weak stance after a big miss on ADP employment. Q3 GDP still outperforming other major economies at 2.1%. NFP should have a short-term affect on markets with a small sell-off of greenback - and then attention towards Trade as we inch closer to tariff increase on the 15th, and still no Phase 1 deal. Increase of tariffs will put significant pressure on AUD as its caught in the crossfire. Technical: *Fib levels Support levels: 0.6800 0.6770 0.6730 Resistance levels: 0.6865 0.6890 0.6920 **Trade invalid on a break below 0.68000 -Krecioch
by Krecioch
GOLD - Descending Channel (Long Opportunity)The price of Gold Futures is possibly moving in descending channel on the 1-day chart. After todays strong downwards movement, we're almost at the support line of the channel. I'm expecting another drop tomorrow, from where we will consider to open our position as follows Open Position (Long): 1446.00 or below Target: 1490.00 or above (Key Zone) Please wait for a confirmation first. I will keep you updated ! What is your trading plan for the next days? Feel free to share your ideas in the comments section. You can also support me on Patreon and enjoy some great benefits. Disclaimer: Any opinions, chats, messages, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this Idea are provided as general market information for educational and entertainment purposes only
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Anton_XBT
1
ORBEX:SPX,DXY -Tradewar Deal Next Month! Brexit Today, Tomorrow?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #SPX and #DXY #Indices! Equities and Cash Indices are both affected by growing confidence surrounding #tradewars, #Brexit and of course, the upbeat US earning reports that keep coming out! With Mr Trump expecting a #tradewar deal by the middle of next month and BoJo willing to push through his latest EU-agreed deal through parliament today or tomorrow, it's going to be an interesting start to the week. Meanwhile, the economic calendar is light today, Monday, making headline news a good market mover! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
ORBEX: DXY, SXP Affected by US-Sino TradeWar ReescalationIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse the US Index and S&P 500 What affects #DXY and #SPX: - China cancels a visit to US farms - Trump says no need for trade deal before 2020 elections, in response to Chinese cancelation - US President also says won't do a partial deal, only complete deal - Fed rate cut - Dovish banks Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex
$WTICOUSD $USO Oil Approaching Key SupportWTICOUSD continues to be pummeled by global macro headwinds. such as a slowing global economy, decreasing global demand, and the ratcheting up in trade rhetoric between the US and China. Given this setup, WTICOUSD is trending downward towards its key Weekly Support Level of $52.422. WTICOUSD has seen steady rallies from this point in the past, however, given the current macro headwinds, this time could be different. Keep an eye on prices around this level. If WTICOUSD breaks its Weekly Support Level $52.422, we could see prices going much lower.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by EconomicsGlobal
The resurrection of the pound & revolution in the bond marketUK monthly retail sales were expected to decrease by 0.2% however, but fortunately, we observe the increase by 0.2%. The pound was trying to gain a foothold above 1.21. Although the attempt failed at the end of the day, we continue to recommend buying the pound both mid-term positions and on the intraday basis. Pound back above $1.21 but not for the log time. US retail sales grew unexpectedly Nevertheless, our recommendation is to sell on the intraday basis as well as medium-term positions - remains unchanged. The situation with the dollar has not changed much - it is too expensive given that the Fed started cutting interest rates and the threat of foreign exchange intervention by the United States. Financial markets, meanwhile, continue to evolve literally before our eyes. Who would have thought a few years ago that investors would be willing to pay extra for the right to lend money? More than $ 16 trillion has been invested by investors in bonds with a negative yield. And the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds fell below 2%, which is a historic low. We live in interesting times. Argentina’s sovereign century bonds tumbled by the most since they were sold in June 2017. Currently, the yield on Argentina's international bonds is close to 100% (!), which made them the cheapest in the world. The yield on dollar bonds of the Argentinean government rose to 27%. Funds that invested in Argentine bonds are suffering huge losses. Considering that Argentina is not an economic dwarf, everything might end badly for the global economy. Thanks to China, yesterday was an opportunity to make good money on our recommendation to sell gold. The asset has grown (1525) on the news that China is threatening the US with countermeasures. It seems like China has felt the strength and is ready to confront the United States. But it is still too early to panic. We still consider such behaviour as preparations for negotiations between the United States and China. The parties are simply trying to gain an advantage in the negotiating position. Recall, in our opinion, gold value is too high. But the situation can change at any time., We continue to monitor the development of events and will continue to keep our readers updated on what is happening and how to make money on it.
Long
by Trade24Fx
NPF data may confuse marketsYesterday, markets somehow tried to price the rate cut in and realized that the door that has been opened for a cycle of rate cuts by FED is not the beginning of a downward cycle. Therefore, the dollar continued to dominate the foreign exchange market, but the stock market was experiencing problems. We would like to draw attention to an important nuance in the Fed's rhetoric - the further of the Central Bank actions will be determined by the state of the economy. One of the key indicators of its health is the state of the labor market. That is why today's US statistics is important. Weaker data on the NFP will give the markets a new serious reason to expect further rate cuts by the Fed. This will finally confuse the foreign exchange market. Strong numbers will show that the Fed should not be in a hurry and cut the rates. That will give a signal that the markets were right when did not sell the dollar-based on the rates cut fact. What do we expect from the NFP data? If we look at the ADP figures, then the + 160K is the most likely scenario. But we cannot but note that the forecast is less than the average value of the NFP indicator over the last couple of years suggests that the US economy is slowing down. In general, the output of data in of 150-180K area is a kind of a “grey” zone, when it is difficult to be sure whether this is good or bad. In this case, you can expect anything - both the start of the dollar correction, and the continuation of the current upward movement figures below 140-150K in our opinion can be the reason to close existing long positions in the dollar in order to fix the profits. This, in turn, can lead to the start of a correction in the dollar. NFP above 200K is a serious positive signal for the dollar, which practically removes the question of lowering the rate in September from the agenda. We note a lack of progress in U.S.-China talks in Shanghai this week. Apparently in response to this lack of progress and in punishing the Chinese for their obstinacy, “The U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country,” says Trump in a tweet. The trade battle between the world’s two largest economies has dragged on for more than a year and a half. Trump shocked the markets in May by hiking tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion in Chinese goods. China immediately retaliated and said a trade deal will not be reached unless the existing duties were stripped. In this light, the safe-haven assets are needed to be bought. Bank of England yesterday did not change its monetary policy. What was expected and had little impact on the dynamics of the British currency. It still remains captive in Brexit. We plan to meet the end of the week with dollar sales, which, however, ready to close in case of the NFP excellent figures. Sales of oil and the Russian ruble do not lose their relevance, as well as the purchase of safe-haven assets.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Johnson and Pound, ECB and Euro, US and ChinaBoris Johnson becomes the UK's new prime minister and, made his first statement. Despite the apocalyptic forecasts, we could observe a pound growth on Wednesday. Once again, chances that Johnson will have enough support to implement the no-deal Brexit are extremely low. An agreement with the EU or a general referendum is more likely to happen. In any case, until October 31, it’s not necessary to expect “exit without a deal”. And this means that buying pounds with current prices is a safe enough trading strategy, that could provide more than a solid income with minimal risks. So our recommendation is unchanged - we are looking for points for pound purchases across the foreign exchange market entire spectrum. Speaking of the euro. Perhaps, he is today the “prospective candidate” for sales against the pound, as well as it is quite possible to buy it against the dollar. Markets cautious with that fact that today the ECB may start to reverse the easing of policy, therefore the euro is trading at the very bottom of the medium-term range. We do not think that it would happen. The ECB is quite a conservative Central Bank. It would rather wait for the Fed to lower the rate, obtain additional economic data, update its economic forecasts, and just after that n begin to act at the beginning of September may be, but not now. So its purchases against the dollar seem like a good trading idea. We are actively buying EURUSD - the risk/reward balance is too enticing: with stops 40-50 points with a potential profit 200 points. Stops must be put up necessarily, because the Eurozone economy is in a bad form, and theoretically could provoke the ECB to act. Yesterday's data on the EU economic loco - in Germany came out weak. The PMI index in the production sector was only 43.1 (with the forecast was 45.2). the minimum level over the last 7 years (!). The PMI index in the Eurozone manufacturing sector also came out below 50 and again worse than forecasts. Unexpectedly the data on new homes sales in the USA came out quite positive( which grew by 7.0% to 646,000 (expected + 5.1%)). However, we will not revise our position on the dollar and continue to look for points for its sales. Meanwhile, the US and China are trying to get on well. On Monday, the US delegation is going to China to find a compromise. There is still no progress in the negotiation process, the IMF lowered forecasts for the growth of the world economy, again. Forecasts in connection with the slow-down in growth of the world economy. was reduced by 0.1% to 3.2% and 3.5% for 2910 and 2020. So, purchases of the Japanese yen continue to be relevant. Our trading recommendations for today: we will continue to look for opportunities for selling the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market, buying the pound against the dollar as well as against the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, and also buying the Japanese yen against the dollar. As for gold, buy it from oversold and sell in the overbought zone.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Trump’s expectation, Bitcoin rally and crisis forecastsTrade war discussion is been #1 on the financial markets. However, the tension has been falling down so far. Tramp has decided to change the tactics. He said that takes a positive attitude towards meeting with Xi Jingping (will take place next month at the G-20 summit). Therefore, the markets were confused. And have no idea what to do next. The apocalyptic predictions were made by analytics in case of extraordinary scenario. On Morgan Stanley’s strategist Mike Wilson point of view, the escalation of trade dispute boosted the likelihood of economic slowdown. John Normand (JPMorgan Chase & Co) believes that “the risk is that some important indicators that are influenced by the exchange of tariffs, approach crisis levels. These are an industrial activity, business indices, capital costs and corporate profits.” Recall that Wall Street analysts have been signaling of a recession, but so far they have not received actual confirmation. Cryptocurrency market has been enveloped in inspiration and optimism. The price for Bitcoin has raised above 8000$, giving a fresh boost to the cryptocurrency market. However, there were no reasons for that. Just because a huge amount of those was said like the flight of investors in cryptocurrency after the trade war’s intensification, a general decrease in investor anxiety about cryptocurrency or market resilience to negative news - after a series of scandals around the cryptocurrency market, including hacking and hacker attacks, cryptocurrency prices did not come down. On the other hand, those reasons could not boost a cryptocurrency market’s sharp rise. Another reason might be “loss of profit syndrome ”. Investors still remember l how Bitcoin rose from 800 to 20,000 over the course of a year, literally and are afraid of being late with entering the position. That is, the rush demand for a cryptocurrency this week is the result of a set of fundamental factors as the effect of the crowd multiplied by greed and fear of being late for the departing train. We do not practice trading on emotions and behavioral deviations. Therefore, we are extremely skeptical about the current rally. meanwhile, the pound continues to be under pressure. The reasons are the lack of progress in Brexit. Yesterday, wage growth in the UK was a problem for the pound, which turned out to be much worse than expected. Our positions on the pound are on pause so far - we are waiting for the end of its sales, to buy cheaper. Following Tuesday, our trading preferences have changed: we will look for points for buying the euro against the dollar, sale oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen, but so far we will wait a little with buying the Australian and Canadian dollars.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EUR/USD Next Target is 1.1305 Fueled By Chinese Tariff IncreaseThe EUR/USD currency pair has gotten a big boost as a result of China stating that it will impose tariffs on $60 Billion of U.S goods starting June 1st. This action has undoubtedly extended the ongoing trade war between the two countries. China's declaration came three days after the US action of all most tripling tariffs on $200 Billion of Chinese imported goods. The EUR/USD bullish momentum has picked up steam as a result of China's promise to raise tariffs on US goods. As a result of the actions of the two countries, the USD has take a hit in the short term. Click here to read the full article which includes predictions of the EUR/USD next target. disclaimer: The above opinions should be used for research and educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice because we are not investment advisers.
by mstardom
Trade war results, dollar’s future and a lot of statisticsThe data on the US trade balance was published yesterday. In the light of the unfolding trade wars, this publication can be regarded as an indicator of victory/failure. So, the negative trade balance between the USA and China in March decreased to a record low in the last 5 years. Formally, this can be written as a victory for the United States. But on the other hand, in the first quarter, imports to the United States from China fell by 13.6%, while exports fell by 17.6%. Well, probably, this cannot be considered as a victory, maybe only a pyrrhic victory. In addition, the US trade deficit with Mexico reached a record $ 9.5 billion in March, and with Europe it grew by more than half to $ 14.2 billion (Trump could send greetings to the weak peso and the euro, as well as a strong dollar). Markets are increasingly worried that Trump is not bluffing when he accuses China of disrupting negotiations and threatens a new active phase of the trade war. In addition, attacks on a strong dollar from Trump’s side might intensify. Strengthening the dollar, as we see, eliminates the effects of current victories in trade wars. So besides the new victories, Trump also needs to ensure a lower dollar. Goldman Sachs currency strategists obviously “feel” that, because they observe the prerequisites for a weaker dollar in the medium term. Also, it should be noted that Friday will be intensive with macroeconomic statistics such as a block of data from the UK, which among other things include statistics on GDP, industrial production and the trade balance. Given the volume and importance of data, an explosion of volatility in pound pairs is almost inevitable. Since the pound movement direction directly depends on the output data, therefore today we recommend today to try trading on the news. So, a couple of minutes before the data release, we place buy-stop and sell-stop orders at 20-30 points from the current price at that time. GBPUSD will be best for work with. News and the subsequent surge in volatility will lead to the directional movement, the formation will be possible to earn on. Using this trading tactic, do not try to predict the price movement, but simply join the general market movement. In addition to statistics from the UK we are waiting for a block of data on the labor market in Canada, as well as consumer inflation in the United States. So in the afternoon in dollar pairs, and especially USDCAD will not be boring. Again, this is a reason for active trading and earnings. Our positions did not change much at the end of the week. We are continuing to look for points for buying the Australian dollar and the euro against the dollar, selling of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as gold and the Japanese yen buying.
by Trade24Fx
The EUR/USD set to face further losses – 1.0900 here we come?After the break below 1.1180/1200 in the EURUSD last Wednesday, Euro bears are in full control of current price action. There are several fundamental reasons pushing the currency pair to trade lower in the coming week. First, in addition to the diverging yield differential between US and EE, particularly in German yields, there is also additional reinforcement of US president Trump's threats of tariffs against the EU after disappointing earnings from Harley-Davidson, due to tariffs from the EU on US products last week. Secondly, fears now also rising that any trade deal struck between the US and China could negatively affect the Euro. Chinese importers could move away from European suppliers, and move to competitive US companies, which would naturally lower demand for Euros and increase demand for the USD. Additionally, the Deutsche Bank FX volatility index is on course to set a record 5-year low, making it even more unlikely that the Euro will pull back above 1.1200 in the near future. That said, today's release of the EU Business Confidence and US Personal Income/Spending dataset, could trigger further losses, particularly if data from the Eurozone continues its ability disappoint. This is especially true after last month's data came in at the lowest level since November 2016, with European managers' views of past production, production expectations, and assessments of both overall and export order books declining significantly. Technically, the initial target on the downside can be found around a projected target of 1.0900/0950, below further losses down to 1.0780/0800 are possible in the days to come.
Short
by Admiral_Markets
1