EURUSD - Bearish Movement over the coming weeks?EURUSD - Daily:
- Head and Shoulder Pattern
- 61.8 Fib Retracement
US-DOLLAR
Dollar Index - More room to fall back before Bullish Movement?DXY Daily:
- Inverted Head and Shoulders on the daily. Would like to see a break of the neckline before making any big decisions on the USD Pairs
- Break and Retest of the descending channel
- Counter trendline being respected well currently
- Completion of right shoulder matches up with 0.5 / 61.8 fib retracement
Will be keeping an eye on GoldBreak and immediate retest of the descending channel, Hovering around a level of previous support at the moment
USD/PLN 1H Chart: Channel UpUSD/PLN 1H Chart: Channel Up
The American Dollar is trading against the Polish Zloty in two week long ascending channel that started to form after the currency exchange rate changed a direction and jumped through the 55- and 100-hour SMAs to the top.
By the moment, it consists of four confirmation points, which means that it has reached maturity and might be broken in the nearest future.
The breakout might occur even earlier, as the currency pair is simultaneously moving in a junior descending channel whose existence became evident after the buck failed to pass through the monthly PP at 3.6490 yesterday.
On the other hand, the road downstairs is secured by the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 3.6252.
On the gradual surge to the top additionally point out traders’ mood, which is 72% bullish.
US OIL (WTI) - 1W - Bolling Band SupportIf you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment!
Underlying: USOIL (WTI)
Time frame: 1W
Last week I posted about oil continuing on its up trend. Although last week was a declining week I am still looking at it to increase in price over the long term. Why? The Bolling Bands Centre Line is acting like it does when it becomes support. You see a break of the centre line which has already happened, you then see a "re-test" as the line makes a "level off" print. And then from there we will see a further increase.
I have also shown on the MACD how I believe it will act, now that oil it starting to pass through the centre line and historic averages, most of the time is does not tend to change direction during the cross over.
Again, this week you might see a further sell off but it will be to the bollinger band centre line at 47.75.
US DOLLAR (DXY) - 1D - Target Hit, but the trade is not overIf you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment!
Underlying: DXY
Time frame: 1D
I posted the chart orginally on 03/10/2017. A few days later it went straight into our profit target zone and then declined.
I am now looking for a push back into that pink trading zone, why? Moving my attention to the MACD on the chart I can see that the two EMA's have now moved above the centre line.. however they are not close enough to start crossing over. What I feel will happen is a few days of trading "side-ways" and then another push up which is why I am still long the US Dollar. This was keeping in line with my original trade as it has sold off 10% from its highs.
ORIGINAL CHART
AUDUSD - The Bigger Picture, Where to now?Back testing that key area now, Where will we go from here, Break or Bounce? Will be checking the lower timeframes to confirm any moves. Daily candle close has shown failure to break that level and rejected it at the moment.
EURUSD pair and DXY convergence To add to the growing list of evidence against the strength of the EURUSD pair, a quick look at it's daily chart shows a convergence between the US dollar index and the pair.
The 4-hour chart shows a crossover between the two on 9/26 and the two are now diverging, signaling weakness in the lower level trends.
The weekly chart shows similar weakness in the mid level trends.
However, keep a close eye on the 1.14 levels. This was where a breakout occurred on the weekly renko chart. We could see a turnaround. Due to the volume spikes on the down days, it leads me to believe this was a period of distribution and the breakout around 7/10 was false and a move past 1.14 is likely. Economic indicators that I discussed in a previous post support a move lower as well. But, again, we will need to watch what the price does around the 1.14 level. Know one knows for sure; that's for sure.
Here's the renko weekly chart I used to get the s/r level.
Happy Trading!!
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USD/CHF long term long outlookRecently the US Dollar reached historical low levels against the Swiss Franc. However, after flirting with the low level below the 0.9450 mark the currency exchange rate has rebounded. The historical low levels where consistent with the massive scale descending channel pattern's lower trend line, which is a clear signal for a long term surge.
The rebound is occurring in a recently mapped ascending channel pattern, which is a medium scale representation of a larger move. The larger move is a descending pattern, which is almost parallel to the most dominant pattern. Meanwhile, its trend lines are consistent with the Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent year low and high levels.
In regards to the short term, the pair is most likely going to decline to the 23.60% Fibo at the 0.9650 mark and afterwards once more approach the 0.9715 mark, where the weekly R1 is located at.
USD/RUB meets long term supportAt first glance the situation on the USD/RUB charts looks chaotic. However, if one delves deeper into understanding the currency exchange rate, it is clear what is occurring.
First of all the pair has made a rebound against the most dominant ascending channel patterns lower trend line, which is combined with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at the 56.95 mark.
As a result of the rebound the previously active medium term pattern was broken. Moreover, two new patterns have been mapped. The short term, already obsolete channel up pattern has already been broken. Meanwhile, the new medium term channel up is only speculated.
DXY Reversal PatternAfter a trend line break out , it could be noticed how the Dollar has been getting stronger through the days.
However, a retracement till 93.00 is not a bad idea , in order to start shaping an inverse head and shoulders, a reversal pattern.
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USDCHF profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sellSell below 0.9756. Stop loss at 0.9785. Take profit at 0.9679.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has shot up perfectly and reached our profit target yesterday. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.9756 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) for a push down to at least 0.9679 support, Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
RSI (34) sees a long term descending resistance line signalling that we’re starting to see bearish momentum.
USDCAD bull run over?Could be time for USDCAD to rollover and make some movement to the downside? Series of lower highs and currently hovering in-between the 61.8 fib and 78.6 fib level. Previous days high was also tested and rejected again which has been highlighted in the chart. One more thing that we can see from this pair is that the yellow highlighted area was a region of previous support which was eventually broken and will now be acting as resistance
EURUSD approaching major resistance, prepare to sellSell below 1.1841. Stop loss at 1.1890. Take profit at 1.1728.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is approaching major resistance at 1.1841 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect to see a strong reaction off this level to push price down to at least 1.1728 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, Elliott wave theory).
Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance from the 100% level and we’re starting to see a nice reversal take place.
