US Dollar Trade PlanUS Dollar has shown very little price movement since the 2014 bull run. US Dollar has stayed in a tight range and based on technical indications we could be seeing one more low before a catapult to higher highs.
US OIL , GOLD , SILVER, EMERGING MARKETS
Rapid movement in US Dollar can have a big impact on USOil as well as silver XAGUSD and gold XAUUSD. Higher US Dollar can also have a big impact on emerging markets EEM and we could see money flow from US into other investments.
US-OIL
US OIL Trade Plan Switched Oil holding (UWTI) near 40 and looking to hold long till target is reached $45.40. As you can see I have mapped out important support and resistance area using a 50% high/low method. Pivots and S/R was drawn from recent June through August High/Low as well as 2008 high to Feb. 11 this year low.
I will follow up with a short position (DWTI) when 45.40 area target is reached. I don't expect oil to go further than 42 after reaching 45.4 target. After short position, I will later look for a long position and a big move -- 56 area.
US Oil – Eyes hourly 50-MA support at $40.23Oil’s rebound from the low of $39.24 following a bullish price RSI divergence on 4-hr chart and a move above $40.85 (23.6% of 46.06-39.24) suggests a temporary loss of bearish momentum, nevertheless, the fresh bear turn in the hourly MACD and RSI’s retreat from overbought territory indicates prices could take out $39.24 and test hourly 50-MA support seen at $40.23.
Only a day end closing below $39.24 would indicate fresh sell-off towards mid-35 levels.
On the higher side, only a day end closing above $41.85 would indicate short-term bearish invalidation.
Potenital triple bottom USOILHere we are looking into a potenital triple bottom on USOIL with RSI indicating an oversold market strong supportive level being met at around the $46 mark, i would like to see this level hold and a reversal up over the trend line drawn with the first target at $49.6 and second target around the $51 resistance level
The Intermediate Bottom In Oil Is Likely TodayAs long as today closes the daily candlestick at a price of 30.57 or higher, the resulting inverted hammer formation is a signal of a potential bottom in oil prices. My price target remains the macro trend line resistance near $34, with a longer-term price target of $39-40.