DAX-AN INDIRECT EVENT PLAY[US 2020 ELECTIONS;BLUE BULL|RED BEAR]The idea briefly explained:
Considering Biden's and the Democrats stance on foreign policy, probabilistically speaking the chances are, of fewer tariffs with US allies, as well as a more comprehensive and less volatile trade policy. Of course, this benefits Germany and the EU in general.
Hence, expecting that the US elections event to turn out as the wedge predictor of whether the current rising wedge in the DAX will have a bullish or bearish breakout. Additionally, the apex of the wedge occurs almost precisely at the time when the elections are held.
Bullish: If Biden wins, despite possible changes to the tax code (which won't be realized immediately), in either situation the target for the DAX should be close to 15000 for the first half of 2021.
The bearish outcome is Trump winning the elections , and I am not going to waste any words on how it has US foreign policy with the EU has worked out so far. The bearish targets in this case are 12500 & 12000.
Finally, COVID news in this case will be the noise of the current price action and the pricing in of the US elections. The bet is indirect because, you can just buy candidate shares. Instead, this ideas is trading on the elections outcome and how it gets priced in via another asset.
This is it for the DAX and US elections. Feedback's always welcomed!
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket
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US
Tesla - Sells valid - bull run over?Tesla sells valid with our strategy.
The entry price, SL and multiple TPs are shown on the chart.
Our back testing and money management strategy itself is holding until a reverse signal to ride a big trend, but as you will not see the next signal - manage the trade as you wish should you decide to enter.
What is our strategy?
Our strategy is a trend following strategy, can be used on any instrument and time frame. However, we have hard coded specific parameters for when trading the H1 time frame, so we can back up over 4200 previous trades to confirm our edge from previous data. This gives us confidence in execution and belief in our trading strategy for the long term.
The strategy simply sits in your trading view, so you will see exactly what we see - the trade, entry price, SL and multiple TPs (although we hold until opposite trade as this is the most profitable longer term plan), lot size, etc.
This could be on your phone trading view app, or laptop of course.
The hard work is done, so we have zero chart work time, no analysis, no time front of the chart doing technical analysis - technical analysis is very subjective - you may see different things at different times - how do you have a rigid trading plan on a H&S shoulder pattern? Your daily routine, diet, sleep, exercise can affect what you 'see' and your decision making, this doesn't happen when a strategy is coded like this; what we do have is a mechanical trading strategy...
What does this mean?
It means, we are very clear on our entry and our exit and use strict risk management (this is built in - put in your account size, set your risk in % or fixed amount and it will tell you what lot size to trade!) so we have no ego with our position and we are comfortable with all outcomes - its simply just another trade. This free's our mindset from worry and anxiety as we take confidence from knowing our edge is there and also that we have used sensible risk management.
The strategy itself can be used as a live trading journal too - how cool is that? The strategy will confirm and support every open and closed position - so its quite easy to follow.
We just have to do what Percy does.
Please see our related ideas below for more information to explain what we do and how it can help you.
EURUSD: Important Decision Ahead! Bearish Scenario Explained
hey guys,
EURUSD has perfectly closed on the support line of a rising parallel channel.
as it been said earlier, we still remain bullish biased until the market is trading within.
however, the market is clearly slowing down and we must consider that.
for that reason, we should be prepared for a bearish breakout.
here is your plan, that will help you properly trade a bearish breakout:
first of all, 1.178 is our last horizontal higher low level.
to avoid a false breakout, violation of the support of the channel is not enough!
we need a daily candle close below this horizontal support as well, that is what confirms the breakout.
then we can sell the retest of the broken channel.
the resistance cluster will be the expanding area between a horizontal higher low and rising support of the channel.
I would suggest looking for a confirmation signal within that area to short.
our goal will be 1.16 level based on a weekly structure.
p.s remember that it is a conditional trading plan.
I am not predicting a bearish breakout, but give you a plan on how to act if it happens.
good luck and have a great weekend.
USDCHF | SWING - 7. Sep. 2020Hello my friend | Welcome Back.
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It heads towards the downside until it retest the breaking area of the descending channel, and then it ascends again to the area referred to in the analysis.
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Here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate No single analysis is To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
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The information given is not a Financial Advice.
BTCUSD XRPUSD GBPUSD EURUSD XAUUSD
Ethereum Heading into a New Bear Trend till end of 2020Hi traders, I hope everyone is safe and healthy in these tough time. Here is the outlook for Ethereum for the next few months. Hit follow and like to show your support:
:arrow_forward: :chart_with_upwards_trend: Next level to consider rebuying some back if bullish is at $310-290 and $285-275 bottom of that broadening wedge where the bulls must try reversing it back up above $400 immediately to preserve the rounding bottom and bull trend :chart_with_upwards_trend: .
:chart_with_downwards_trend: Note that if we break that $285-275 support, then we may go in an extended bear market AGAIN unfortunately until end of 2020 after which a new bull market would start Q1 2021 which is a substantial delay again due to the US elections and US economical/pandemic mismanagement/incompetence of Trump's presidency.
If the bear trend confirms, then I do think we find a bottom on ETHUSD and BTCUSD sometime September or October before the US elections and I am currently looking at $220-210 for a rebuy/relong longterm for that bottom after which we'd see ETHUSD recover back up mid October to November 2020 back above $275-285 similar to July-October 2017 action...
:arrow_forward: Overall portfolio management wise, it is best to flip 50% to fiat and 50% ETH longterm and just watch. If we regain $400s+ then we can consider reinvesting the rest. If those 2 years of bear market in Crypto taught us something new, it is effective and proper risk, portfolio and trade management and most importantly banking profit/cash and withdrawing that profit to the bank account and enjoy it. Do not take any long-term outlook for granted and always take profit, else we'd suffer continuous losses over the years at the mercy of the high frequency algos and CME institutional entities.
Stay safe!
EURUSD: Important Decision Ahead! Bearish Scenario Explained
hey guys,
EURUSD has perfectly closed on the support line of a rising parallel channel .
as it been said earlier, we still remain bullish biased until the market is trading within.
however, the market is clearly slowing down and we must consider that.
for that reason, we should be prepared for a bearish breakout.
here is your plan, that will help you properly trade a bearish breakout:
first of all, 1.178 is our last horizontal higher low level.
to avoid a false breakout, violation of the support of the channel is not enough!
we need a daily candle close below this horizontal support as well, that is what confirms the breakout.
then we can sell the retest of the broken channel.
the resistance cluster will be the expanding area between a horizontal higher low and rising support of the channel.
I would suggest looking for a confirmation signal within that area to short.
our goal will be 1.16 level based on a weekly structure.
USDCAD: Ascending Triangle & Long Trade
hey guys,
classic example of a trend following setup on usdcad.
the price is recovering after a shart bearish rally and we are now trading in a local bullish trend.
the price has just broken above the resistance line of the ascending triangle formation.
best entry will be on its retest, to catch the next impulse.
next goal - 1.3105
good luck!
USDJPY | SWING - 2. Sep. 2020Hello my friend | Welcome Back.
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The triangle may break the ascending to the downside, and if it is penetrated, the target is from the first point at which the triangle may be located. BTCUSD GBPUSD EURUSD XAUUSD
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Here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate No single analysis is To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
***
The information given is not a Financial Advice.
USD INDEX- Start of correction?USD is in a clear and strong down-trend and from the March 102 top, dropped around 10%. Although I think the USD weakness will continue in the long run, early sighs of a much-needed correction look to take shape.
Yesterday the market closed forming a Pin Bar and in the past two weeks, the drop was not so aggressive.
That being said I expect USD strength in all the majors and USD weakness should be bough.
USDJPY | SWING - 31. AUGU. 2020Hello my friend | Welcome Back.
Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
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The dollar against the Japanese yen is swinging towards resistance and is likely to break it.
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Here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate No single analysis is To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
***
The information given is not a Financial Advice.
USDJPY | SWING - 29. AUGU. 2020Hello Traders Welcome Back.
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Here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
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Ascending ChannelKEY TAKEAWAYS
An ascending channel is used in technical analysis to show an uptrend in a security’s price.
It is formed from two positive sloping trend lines drawn above and below a price series depicting resistance and support levels, respectively.
Channels are used commonly in technical analysis to confirm trends and identify breakouts and reversals.
Understanding Ascending Channels
Within an ascending channel, price does not always remain entirely contained within the pattern’s parallel lines but instead shows areas of support and resistance that traders can use to set stop-loss orders and profit targets. A breakout above an ascending channel can signal a continuation of the move higher, while a breakdown below an ascending channel can indicate a possible trend change.
Ascending channels show a clearly defined uptrend. Traders can swing trade between the pattern’s support and resistance levels or trade in the direction of a breakout or breakdown.
Trading the Ascending Channel
Support and Resistance: Traders could open a long position when a stock's price reaches the ascending channel’s lower trend line and exit the trade when price nears the upper channel line. A stop-loss order should be placed slightly below the lower trend line to prevent losses if the security’s price abruptly reverses. Traders who use this strategy should ensure there is enough distance between the pattern’s parallel lines to set an adequate risk/reward ratio. For example, if a trader places a $5 stop, the width of the ascending channel should be a minimum $10 to allow for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio.
Breakouts: Traders could buy a stock when its price breaks above the upper channel line of an ascending channel. It is prudent to use other technical indicators to confirm the breakout. For example, traders could require that a significant increase in volume accompanies the breakout and that there is no overhead resistance on higher time frame charts.
Breakdowns: Before traders take a short position when price breaks below the lower channel line of an ascending channel, they should look for other signs that show weakness in the pattern. Price failing to reach the upper trend line frequently is one such warning sign. Traders should also look for negative divergence between a popular indicator, such as the relative strength index (RSI), and price. For instance, if a stock’s price is making higher highs within the ascending channel, but the indicator is making lower highs, this suggests upward momentum is waning.
Envelope Channels
Envelope channels are another popular channel formation that can incorporate both descending and ascending channel patterns. Envelope channels are typically used to chart and analyze a security’s price movement over a longer period of time. Trend lines can be based on moving averages or highs and lows over specified intervals. Envelope channels can use similar trading strategies to both descending and ascending channels. This analysis will typically be based on a stock price movement over an extended period of time while ascending and descending channels can be beneficial for charting a security’s price immediately after a reversal.
USD/CHF Long Position after Confirmation of SupportHere on CHF we are seeing two major important points that can determine the direction of our next trade.
First of all we see that the price is really close to a horizontal support. This can gives us a nice risk-reward for a long position.
Second of all, we see the price is following a trend line (roughly, it's not perfect admittedly). We can use this trend line to understand when we need to exit our long position.
Basically it means that the price is trending downwards, and we should be conservative with our positions. Don't hold it too long, and exit relatively early. That's why I drew the orange line to bounce at around 0.9073
All other information can be found on the chart. Good luck!
P.S. You might have noticed I posted an exact copy of this idea for CHF/USD.... oops. Turns out I had the pairs the wrong way around, and nobody actually looks at CHF/USD =\. So I decided to repost it here :).
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- Trading Guru
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Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
USDCAD: Key Weekly Structure Ahead!!!
damn, how hard to find any good trading setup during this week.
the market is just crazy giving us no chance for a safe entry.
watching USDCAD, selling rally clearly continues.
the price will soon reach 1.30 structure support level.
it is a 2019's low and a key structure of 2019's/2018's price action.
I guess sellers are aiming there.
then a bullish reaction will be highly probable.
I will be waiting for a reversal clues on daily to catch a pullback.
good luck.