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Republican-led shutdown: What's at Stake for the USD?? Republican-led shutdown: What's at Stake for the USD?? We are four days away from a potential partial government shutdown, and negotiations among lawmakers have yet to produce a resolution. On Monday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries meet in the Oval Office with the president and vice president to negotiate the conditions to keep the government operational beyond March 1. Senate Democrats have been expressing frustration, placing blame on House Republicans, particularly criticizing leader Mike Johnson, for the current impasse. Senator Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat, voiced displeasure, stating, "We're doing this every six months. This is bullsh*t.... we need to do what we were elected to do, fund the government, not shut it down," in an interview with CNN. If no resolution is reached, a partial shutdown is set to commence at 12 a.m. on Saturday. Notably, the last time the US government was on the precipice of a shutdown (Sept- Oct 2023), the USD kept strengthening against major partners like the Euro, with the USD being seen as a safe haven play. But last year, there were a few other factors that could have been compounding this USD-buying activity, including the US interest-rate differential and comments from some Fed members making it clear that policy won’t be changing anytime soon. This time, it's maybe not as clear that there are as strong a set of factors pushing for a robust USD.
by BlackBull_Markets
DXY - Bearish => Bullish 📈📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📉 As per my last analysis, attached on the chart, DXY rejected the upper bound of the red channel and traded lower. Currently, DXY is hovering around the lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📈 For the bulls to take over, and start the next impulse that would lead to 105.2, a break above the last major high in blue is required. 📉 Meanwhile , DXY would be bearish and can still break the red trendline downward, in this case a continuation till the 103.0 support would be expected. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:DXY
by TheSignalyst
7
DXY MELTDOWNThe enduring downward trajectory of the USD appears poised to persist in the coming years and even decades. With a staggering $33 trillion debt load that seems insurmountable, coupled with dwindling confidence from international partners who are divesting from the USD, the currency faces significant headwinds. The inevitable repatriation of these dollars to the Federal Reserve, the United States' central bank, exacerbates the downward pressure. Forecasts indicate that the DXY, reflective of this trend, is likely to dip below $100 and remain there for an extended period. Our analysis underscores this outlook not only for the DXY but also for the USD's performance against other major currencies and assets.
TVC:DXYShort
by NixxWorld
EA - The Game Is Still On ↗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 🗒 As per my last analysis, attached to the chart, EA rejected our purple circle zone and traded higher. Now, what's next? 📈 For the bulls to remain in control and potentially lead to new all-time highs from a macro perspective, a weekly candle close above $150 is needed. 📉 Meanwhile, the bears can still kick in , potentially retesting the lower bound of the orange channel. Here, we will be looking for short-term trend-following buy setups. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
NASDAQ:EA
by TheSignalyst
DXY - Over-Bought Zone ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 DXY has been overall bullish , trading within the rising wedge pattern in red. At present, DXY is approaching the upper red trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance. Moreover, it is retesting a strong resistance zone marked in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #DXY is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a top bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:DXY
by TheSignalyst
NIO - Will Rise From Ashes 🦅Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 NIO has been overall bearish, trading within the falling wedge pattern in red. Currently, NIO is hovering around the lower bound of the wedge acting as a non-horizontal support. Moreover, it is retesting a strong support zone at 5.0 marked in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #NIO is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
NYSE:NIO
by TheSignalyst
2
US CRUDE OIL 4H : Support further rise up US CRUDE OIL New forecast The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and price reached to our targets +120 pip . Oil price trading settled above the level of 73.72, heading towards resuming the ascending wave within the ascending channel shown in the chart, where it touched the first positive target at 75.06, and we expect the ascending wave to extend towards 76.23 as the next stop. Therefore, we expect to witness further rise in the coming sessions with support from the 50 moving average that carries the price from below, keeping in mind that the continuation of the bullish wave requires stability above 72.90 levels. The expected trading range for today is between support 72.90 and resistance 78.00 until stabilized . support line : 73.72 , 72.90 resistance line : 75.06 , 76.23 Attention : We don't have any group in telegram be careful about scammer. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
TVC:USOILLong
by Arazmajeed
14
Quantitative Support in the US1. Liquidity and Investments: An increase in M2 typically means there is more liquidity in the economy, as consumers and businesses have more cash or cash-equivalents at their disposal. This excess liquidity can lead to increased investment in stocks, including those in the S&P 500, driving up stock prices. 2. Economic Expectations: A growing money supply can signal that central banks (like the Federal Reserve in the United States) are implementing looser monetary policies, often in response to concerns about economic growth. Lower interest rates and other forms of monetary stimulus can encourage borrowing and investing, leading investors to buy stocks in anticipation of economic recovery or growth, which can push up stock market indices like the SPX. 3. Inflation Expectations: Over the long term, increases in the money supply can lead to inflationary expectations. If investors believe that inflation will rise, they might choose to invest in assets like stocks, which are seen as a hedge against inflation, because companies can raise prices to maintain their revenues and profits in nominal terms. This shift can drive up stock prices, including those in the S&P 500. 4. Risk Appetite: An expanding money supply can also affect investor sentiment and risk appetite. With more money available and potentially lower returns from traditional safe investments (like savings accounts or bonds, which might offer lower interest rates when the money supply is growing), investors may turn to the stock market in search of higher returns, driving up equity prices. S&P can go higher, this depends on the FED Golilocks continues. The economy is not going to crash, why? It's already happened. We had a GFC. Go to university and do any relevant classes to macroeconomics. You will at some point discuss, or study the GFC. This is so we does not happen again. Of-course nothing is going to go terrible during a US election year. Now this does not stop black swan events...
ECONOMICS:USM2Long
by BackQuant
Strong Bullish Momentum in US30 "📈 US30 Bulls Bucking Strong: Analyzing the Dow Jones, it's evident that we're currently witnessing consistent higher highs and higher lows, indicative of an uptrend market. Observing the week-to-week movements, prices show a rise of approximately 2% from low to high and a decline of around 1% from high to low. Given this, my market approach involves patiently waiting for a potential 1% price pullback. Subsequently, I would seek opportunities to go long, placing my stops below the previous low to target a gain of around 2%. Your support for my channel through likes, comments, shares, reposts, and cheers is sincerely valued. Thank you. 🙌🚀"
DJ:DJI
by Districtfx
5
Big Week For DXY. Short-Term ReviewThis week will be a major one for the US dollar index, as the amount of economic data released from the US might raise volatility of the instrument significantly and spark interest among traders. Apart from the JOLTS, ADP, Chicago PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP, we also get the first one of this year’s Fed interest rate decisions on Wednesday. Currently, EASYMARKETS:USXUSD is ranging roughly between the 102.83 and 103.60 levels, meaning that traders and investors are waiting for one of the economic events to bring it out of that sideways action. While the rate stays inside that range, we will remain neutral. A break above the upper side of the range, at 103.60, may signal the rising appetite of the bulls, as a forthcoming higher high would be confirmed. EASYMARKETS:USXUSD could then travel to the highest point in December, at 104.26. If that doesn’t stop the buyers, the next possible target might be 104.68, which is the low of November 6th. Alternatively, to consider lower areas, a drop below the lower side of the aforementioned range, at 102.83, which is also marked by the high of January 5th, would also place EASYMARKETS:USXUSD below the 200 EMA on our four-hour chart. Such a move could temporarily spook the bulls from the field, allowing the bears to take control. This may open the door for the rate to slide all the way to the 101.62 territory. That territory is marked near the lows of December 15th and Janay 5th. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:USXUSD
by easyMarkets
What Color Is Your Tesla 🚘Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, On Weekly: Left Chart TSLA has been hovering inside a range between the $200 support and $300 resistance. Lately, TSLA has been bearish trading inside the falling blue channel and it is currently approaching the lower bound and $200.0 support. 🏹 Hence , as long as the 185.0 support holds, we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. On H1: Right Chart 📈 For the bulls to take over, we need a momentum candle close above the last major high in gray at 218.0 📉 Meanwhile , TSLA would be bearish and can still trade lower to dive inside the 185-200 support zone before trading higher. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TheSignalyst
2
XAUUSD US GDP) ANALYSIS🤷hello traders what do you think about this analysis trading ideas 💡😁💡 Gold rallies toward 'golden cross' after defying bearish signal Nov 29, 202316:08 GMT+5 By Myra P. Saefong Precious metal trades near highest since May Gold futures have climbed to their highest prices since May, just eight weeks after a death cross in prices signaled the potential for further weakness. That marks a shift in the market toward a bullish indicator known as a "golden cross," which happens when a short-term moving average climbs past a long-term moving average. Gold futures were on track to soon reach that technical milestone. As of Tuesday, most-active futures (GC00) saw the 50-day moving average at $1,947.82 and its 200-day moving average at $1,952.17, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The December gold futures contract (GCZ23) settled at $2,040 an ounce on Comex, the highest finish since May 9. The gold-backed SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund GLD, however, is much closer to reaching its golden cross. In Tuesday trading, the ETF's 50-day moving average was at $179.70 and its 200-day moving average climbed to $180.12. "Whether or not gold enters the golden cross, the investment case for gold is strong," said Joy Yang, head of product management and marketing at index provider MarketVector.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by SMC-Trading-Point
Gold Next Move ? (XAUUSD)Investors in Asia, meanwhile, took comments from erstwhile Federal Reserve hawk Christopher Waller as perhaps a signal of another era-shift, as he flagged that U.S. interest rates could be cut in the months ahead. A rally in bonds and slide in the dollar that has run for weeks in the afterglow of a benign U.S. inflation report extended in Asia in the wake of Waller's remarks. Two-year Treasury yields fell to a four-month low just below 4.70%. Ten-year Treasury yields hit a two-month low of 4.28%. Interest rate futures price more than 100 basis points of cuts next year and a 40% chance they begin as soon a March. The dollar's slide led to multi-month highs for the yen, euro, sterling and Swiss franc against the greenback and sent spot gold, in dollars, to its highest since May.
TVC:GOLDShort
by ZumixFX
1
GBP/USD Reaches New Peak Amid Strong Economic Signals from UKThe GBP/USD exchange rate surged to a twelve-week peak recently, riding on improved consumer confidence and a positive business outlook, despite persistent recessionary pressures. This upward movement, with the pound sterling hitting 1.2615 against the US dollar, reflects a favorable response to the latest S&P Global/CIPS data. Additionally, a sell-off in Gilts bolstered bond yields, contributing to the market's optimistic stance. Amidst mixed economic signals from both the UK and the US, the GBP/USD pair maintained its strength, trading at 1.2606. In the UK, while inflation displayed signs of cooling down, it remained notably higher than the Bank of England's target rate, registering at 4.6%. The recent Chancellor’s Autumn Statement offered a balanced perspective on growth and inflation, steering a path of cautious optimism. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill's reiteration of the central bank's commitment to combatting inflation further solidified market sentiments. Looking forward, market players are eagerly anticipating further insights and crucial US economic reports, including Consumer Confidence and ISM Manufacturing PMI and how will they compare from the ones from UK These upcoming factors are anticipated to wield significant influence on the future movements of the GBP/USD exchange rate. In technical terms, indicators such as RSI and MACD are signaling Buy, reinforcing the ongoing trend. If the current trajectory persists, the price could potentially ascend to levels around 1.2733, with a probable pivot point at 1.2583. However, there might be a downside risk, with potential drops to support levels at 1.2458, indicative of a cautious market sentiment amid the evolving economic landscape. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Long
by legacyFXofficial
US & Headline CPI - October Release/Overview US CPI US Headline and Core CPI for October both came in lower than expected (decrease). US Headline CPI: YoY – Actual 3.24% / Exp. 3.3% / Prev. 3.7% (Green on chart) US Core CPI: YoY – Actual 4.02% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.13% (Blue on chart) The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 1 – 3% from 2002 – 2020 below. Nice to see the Core CPI come down, almost down, into the moderate historical averages PUKA
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
USDX - BULLISH SCENARIOThe US Dollar index is currently positioned near crucial support levels, including the 38% retracement from July 2023 lows to October 2023 highs, alongside the previous descending channel trend line and support from the 50% retracement, 200-day moving average (DMA), and a potential bull flag pattern. Despite recent declines due to factors like a slightly weaker Consumer Price Index (CPI), reduced yields, and a general stock market rally, these support levels might prove stronger than anticipated. With the stock market vulnerable to a near-term pullback and upcoming European Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) releases, the narrative of "USA exceptionalism" could persist. A significant bullish signal for the US Dollar index would be a rally above the 50-day moving average (DMA) at approximately the 105.75 level.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by legacyFXofficial