Short term bonds are still trading below the bank fiasco crisis. 1 & 2YR Yields. However....... Long term #yield is higher than it was during the bank fiasco. 10 & 30 YR #Yield. Normalization of the curve is still a ways off.
JUST SAYING....... NOT implying that the party is over BUT heed some signs by treasury. 1Yr #yield is fighting to close above the 10day Mov Avg (RED). 2 Yr has a possible 3rd day trading above the RED Mov Avg. 10Yr fighting to get above the recent trend it broke & Moving Avg's. US #Dollar has been fighting & looks to be gaining momentum. We'll see how this does...
GOOD MORNING! These will be DAILY charts but what we really need to see is how the week will close for all of these (this was thread on X) TVC:DXY & TVC:TNX both look like they're running out of steam. The #Dollar does seem to be fighting this break. 30YR Treasury, read above statement. 1YR stopped going up long ago. Are 2 Yr #Yields finally breaking?
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 1 & 2Yr #yields are falling pretty decently today. This can be very good short term. However....... It's conceivable BAD in the long term (has been historically) IF the curve normalizes. Current rates 2Yr 5.056 vs 10Yr 4.749 The #Fed rarely does things right. I Wonder. Why is that? Can it be by design? #bonds #stocks TVC:TNX
Japan has no completely lost control of their bond yields. Japan has completely lost control the US Yield Curve Control. The FRED paused (as I expected they had no choice). The FRED realizing they need to initiate YCC / QE / Rate Cuts before end of 2023 or we're going to see an economic meltdown. Option 1, let yields raise > mortgages blow up > bank...
Obviously as money flows into cash it flows out of assets If rates on US bonds rise then the incentive to hold cash increases which dries up liquidity almost everywhere else. We are seeing very bullish signs (current data/can fail and reverse) for both US Dollar and US Yields. Which of course correlates to bearish signs for assets prices (bitcoin/stocks/real...
Looking ahead to the upcoming week and my market outlook: Let's begin by examining the yield curve spread, which consistently correlates with the bear steepener. This spread provides us with a valuable timetable or countdown, usually spanning 1-3 months before a breakout occurs. When this breakout happens, it typically signifies that the market has already...
Short term #yield is still weakening The 3M & 6M peaked not long ago & been going lower. The 1Yr & 2Yr are holding area when the #banks began to fail. The 10Yr peaked Oct 2022, last year. TVC:TNX has been lower & looks 2b headed lower at the moment. We'll see what the #FederalReserve does but Wall St thinks #fed is done with rates or @ CLOSE to the end of hikes
6M #Yield has been struggling lately 1Yr was weak but it's retracing some of those losses 2Yr has been the strongest of the four lately 10Yr Has been stagnant as of late Seeing the 2Yr pump is concerning....... #bonds #stocks #gold #silver
We post a lot of ANALYSIS with ideas & what we're seeing BUT Keep an eye out for the ACTUAL CALLS We called rally in TVC:DXY & #yields, we got that over last month + Recently we stated that #bonds likely found a bottom = yields topping & Stated that TVC:DXY was looking weaker #Dollar cratering & Yields falling This COULD save, at least for now, another wave...
TVC:RUT broke resistance & is trading back under again The only consistent up mover is the NASDAQ:NDX 6Month is at its HIGHEST levels this year 1Yr Struggling here but hit highs 2 & 10Yr nowhere near highs TVC:TNX All #yields look as if they're going to roll over soon Historically, #stocks follow this downside on yields Is this time different?
🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 6 Month #yield is NOW HIGHER than when #silvergate #bank collapsed! #interestrates can stay above 5% for extended periods of time, see charts, BUT the end result has NEVER been good for #stocks 1Yr struggles @ 5% but has been higher than 6% HOWEVER 10Yr TVC:TNX is DIFFERENT! This has been on a long downtrend until 2022! #bonds
1Yr is still holding better than 2yr & 10Yr IMO Still look like they're fighting to bottom, HOWEVER, TVC:TNX has a history of breaking current support level. Monthly RSI looks 2b weakening. While in theory falling #yield is good for #TECH it historically has NOT been good for #stocks
$TNX has held better than short term #yields but could this be changing now? - The 2yr & 1Yr are holding. - Of course, it's early in the trading day so we'll see tomorrow morning how things go. - In reference to the post last week on #yield in 2008, we need to keep an eye on TOPS in these #bond yields. It took 1 year at that time before there was a lower high. IMO...
Was kind of expected to get some bounce from #Bond #Yields. The last two days, especially yesterday, was RARE in yield price action. It happens but it's rare. The buys could have been investors trying to take advantage of higher rates being that they are "expecting" the Fed Reserve to lower rates. We mentioned that most yields, when we posted, were at or close...
Last week we mentioned that #yields cratering like they did was not normal. Currently they are all at support with $TNX holding better than short term yields. The 10Yr has BOUNCED a bit off support. In a positive note it does lessens the inverted Yield curve :D We'll see how this scenario holds. What's happening today is more SPECULATION than anything else. The...
The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there. It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets. This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much. The 1Yr is off almost 3.26% The 2Yr is off 5.01 The 10Yr is off...
One of the reasons US Treasuries, and other bonds, have been selling off is the dumping by Japanese investors. All duration #YIELDS have done well but more so the shorter term. The Inverted Yield Curve has widened over the last few months but has been significantly lately. However, today we see the 1 & 10Yr ($TNX) selling off but the 2 Yr is CRATERING!...