From Friday People discounted the US #Dollar $DXY but it came back beating historical tendencies (usually breaks lows before eventually coming back 1, 2 & 10 Yr $TNX Huge inverted #yield curve =expecting turbulence short term #inlfation may FORCE #FEd to keep raising bit more
Short rates flying (up to 1Yr #yield) Already broke previous highs Compare to 2 (slightly lower than previous highs) & 10 $TNX (chart tells story) #Market trading = #inflation higher vs #Fed expectation of 2% Markets not expecting recession or lower inflation NO soft landing - party on But that'll mean eventual HAWKISH FED Dilemma #stocks or #economy, only 1
Is the greatest market euphoria ahead of us? New ATH before the big bust? Traders enjoyed a 3 year Fed pivot rally, that began in early 2019 and continued through 2021. This was 3 times the size of the blow-off-top in 2006-2007. Is a Fed Pivot Rally In The Cards?
Publishing this just so you are aware. Ofcourse must be some kind of bug, right ? ..RIGHT?
Gold vs. Real Yields for Q4 2020
The U.S. 10 Yr. Yield Jumped over 5.2 BP to +7% , following a full in prices post debate. This is the highest since sept 18th.
Us10Y making a notable uptick this week, correlation remain positive.
Remember, the stock market isn't the economy. A healthy economy usually is correlated to a healthy stock-market (price valuations, liquidity) However, the reverse is not true. The stock market isn’t the economy. There are a lot of private businesses in the U.S. that don’t reflect in the stock market. The stock market is forward looking while economic data...
White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow has really changed his tone on the scale and sustainability of American debt. Remarks country isn't nearing its borrowing limits. Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product (GFDEGDQ188S) was first constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in October 2012. It is calculated using Federal Government...
This was the first chart that signaled a recession in April of 2020 when the curve first inverted last year in May. This was pure luck, by simply drawing a fractal of previous yield curve inversions from past recessions from May, which was around 360 days from the TA that suggested the market would recess in April of 2020. Obviously covid is a...
With A -194 bp stoploss, my second added TLT long position form 73/30 is approaching in on +1%. while my primary position from the 23rd of june remains 975 bp or 6.04% in profit from the publicly given signal. Positions are both open are floating.
A few weeks ago we got some nice yield inversion in the US treasury market, just like we did in Canada. I'm thinking the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate stable around here before cutting when bad nGDP data comes rolling in.