Holding original short position with stoploss at breakeven.
Negative interest pricing has begun. An interesting thing happened in US 3-month government bond yields. For the first time in history, markets have begun to price negative dollar rates. In my previous analyzes I have already drawn attention to this possibility. This has happened today.
US03M chart before another plunge. The chart shows the forward rate curve for US 3-month government bonds. I've analyzed this curve many times. It can be seen that the chart makes small movements. Furthermore, it can be seen that the anti-movement ATRs (white rectangle) have a strong pressure on the exchange rate. In the event that the exchange rate falls out of...
FRED:FEDFUNDS 01:37:23 (UTC) Fri Jan 3, 2020 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ This is not financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Seek a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. I am not responsible for losses or gains that may or may...
The market is expecting another interest rate cut. Construction of the declining double fractal at US03M may begin. This means that the short-term interest rate forecast may fall to 1.25%. These forecasts have been relatively stable so far. It can be seen that the peaks of the exchange rate wave sequence follow the auxiliary axis projected to the moving average...
Longerterm projection of the spread between US10Y and US03MY
This chart has recently projected the rate of interest rate cuts very precisely. In case the chart analysis is correct, it predicts an additional 3x FED interest rate cut. This may be a rising factor for the euro. Therefore, I expect the current appreciation of the euro to be the start of a longer process.
I really so no reason for the Fed to cut rates in Sept, considering that the China meeting doesn't happen until Oct and the market is at the top. Wage inflation is starting to creep up as well which will eventually lead to real inflation. Rate cut is already priced in so look for the market to react negatively if they don't get what they've already priced in. ...
A few weeks ago we got some nice yield inversion in the US treasury market, just like we did in Canada. I'm thinking the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate stable around here before cutting when bad nGDP data comes rolling in.