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US10

Bond H&S = risk off deflationary + curve inversionMeasured moved based on H&S break has this moving approximately 10%. We're currently looking at a retest of the break, but it's fading fast. When combined with the record net-short interest here, this could be a fast move, and could even invert the yield curve in one fell-swoop. If so, this would be reminiscent of the 2000 yield curve inversion, which happened extremely quick, and occurred around the same time the bear market started. Note that the big drop after the head that occurred around May 25th was a global collateral call. That alone is reason to realize that liquidity is not what we thought and there may be more problems in the global dollar funding system than many would know.
TVC:US10Y
by GTStockmaster
2
US 10-year T-notes. Downside could be limited. Target corrected.This idea supports the previous interest rate outlook. I advise you to book profits on the idea given last September (see related) earlier than set target at 116'07 and this is why: The long-term trend together with the previous low offers strong support for the price and could reject the drop in the 117-118 area. In this area the wave C = 1.272 of wave A and this also fortifies the support. So better close shorts there.
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by aibek
USD interest rate growth could be limited by previous top.At the end of last September I called for the drop in the 10-year US T-notes with quite aggressive target (see related idea). In this and the next update I came to the thought that the drop could be over earlier as rates are reaching important resistance level. Despite the aggressive tone on the rate rise in US, I think the upside is limited based on this chart. Wave 5 of (C) already has reached the target zone and approaches the former top at the 3.04% where the wave 5 = 0.786 of waves 1-3. It is quite possible that when we would reach that area above 3 pct something in the economy could cry out - stop it! Let's see!
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by aibek