Dow Jones Index (US30): Your Trading Plan For Today
Dow Jones Index is testing, a recently broken
key daily resistance.
With a high probability, the broken structure turned into support.
Our confirmation to buy will be a bullish breakout
of a neckline of an ascending triangle formation on 1H time frame.
Hourly candle close above 39185 will confirm the violation.
A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 39325.
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Us100
US100 H1 - Long SignalUS100 H1
We are still very much in an uptrend on the US100, and as per the above H4 analysis, we ideally want to be trading with the trend. This hourly setup offer a long entry with stops covering arguably the previous lower high. The H1 timeframe looks good, 19700 price is a whole number price level.
The only concern lays on the H4 timeframe, where it looks like we are wanting to break downside further. Not looking to jump in this yet, but if we can see some hourly support confirmation, this could be something we entertain as we move into the US market open.
NASDAQ Minor correction expected. Where to buy?Nasdaq (NDX) has almost reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 26 2023 bottom. The last Higher Low was made on April 19 2024 and ever since, a strong Bullish Leg in the form of a Channel Up (dotted), took the index above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (red trend-line).
Since the last Bullish Leg topped at around a +20.87% rise, we can assume that the price has entered a rejection zone. The only parameter left to confirm this, is for the 1D MACD to form a Bearish Cross. As you can see the two Bullish Legs are fairly similar so far in their price action.
With the late December 2023 - early January 2024 pull-back bottoming on the 4H MA200 exactly, we are expecting a symmetrical pull-back to that level again, where we will be looking to add more buys and target 20700 (top of the 8-month Channel Up).
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US100 - Short SignalUS100 H2
Here is the analysis for NASDAQ. Looking to short as close to that 20000 price as possible. We are trading at ATH price currently, so it's hard to gauge how high this instrument might trade.
Although, 20000 is a very significant price, we could expect a dump of a few 100 points at least before continuing upside if this is the case.
NAS100 (NASDAQ US100) Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👉 In this analysis, we focus on the higher time frame charts for the NASDAQ 100 index. Currently, the charts indicate a bullish outlook. However, it’s important to note that this assessment is speculative and not a definitive prediction. To confirm a true reversal, we must closely monitor specific price movements. The accompanying video provides an in-depth analysis of the trend, market structure, and price action. Remember that trading carries substantial risk, so always prioritize robust risk management strategies in your decision-making process. 📊✅
Nasdaq Index: A Bubble About to BurstLOver the past six years, I have been deeply immersed in the financial markets, conducting thorough and continuous analysis through various methods, patterns, and analytical schools. Today, I would like to share with you a bold opinion that may seem unreasonable to some, but I am confident in its accuracy: the current prices of the Nasdaq Index are merely a reflection of a massive bubble that is about to burst.
#### Current Economic and Political Conditions
Let's look at the broader context of recent economic and political events. Inflation in the United States has reached unprecedented levels in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates repeatedly. These rate increases lead to tighter liquidity, making financing more expensive and reducing consumer and investment spending. This has significantly impacted multiple sectors, including technology, which constitutes a large portion of the Nasdaq Index components.
#### Impact of Inflation and Interest Rates
High inflation means that living and production costs increase, reducing the ability of companies to achieve substantial profits. Technology companies, in particular, are heavily affected due to their significant reliance on cheap financing to grow their businesses. As interest rates rise, these companies' ability to borrow and grow diminishes, leading to a decline in their market value.
#### Expected Scenario for the Nasdaq Index
Imagine this scenario: upon the Nasdaq Index reaching levels between 20,500 and 20,700 , the bubble that has inflated illogically will start to burst. This burst will lead to a dramatic drop that may reach levels between 18,400 and 18,800 in the short term. But the story does not end there. Considering potential corrections and the breaking of these supports, the drop could accelerate until the index reaches astonishing levels of approximately 16,700.
#### Potential Recession and Economic Contraction
This anticipated drop is not just a number on a screen but a signal of a severe financial crisis that could ravage the American economy and leave a deep impact on global markets. Major companies will see their values shrink, leading to a loss of market confidence and increasing pressure on the entire financial system. With declining investments and rising unemployment rates, the likelihood of an economic recession and severe contraction increases.
For example, we can look at the global financial crisis of 2008, where the collapse of the housing market led to the downfall of major financial institutions and a significant rise in unemployment rates. Similarly, the economic crisis of the early 2000s, known as the dot-com bubble, saw a dramatic collapse in tech stock prices, leading to an economic recession.
#### Potential Impact on the American Economy
The current situation of the Nasdaq Index clearly indicates the unsustainability of high prices. The bubble we see today is built on unrealistic expectations and inflated market values. The anticipated drop will soon confirm the accuracy of this analysis, serving as a real test of the resilience of the economy and financial markets. In this scenario, we might witness a significant economic contraction, with a sharp decline in economic activities and rising unemployment rates, putting immense pressure on both the American and global economies.
Therefore, I urge you to take this analysis seriously and exercise caution in your investment strategies. The bubble is about to burst, and the major drop will come unexpectedly and swiftly.
Thank you, and I hope this analysis serves as an early warning for those seeking a deeper understanding of the current state of the Nasdaq Index and financial markets in general. Prepare yourselves, as the financial storm is approaching, and the upcoming events may change the face of the economy as we know it.
Tamer Omar, Analyst and Financial Markets Enthusiast
Date: June 17, 2024
Time: 21:17 PM (UTC+2)
NASDAQ Short-term pull-back possible. Know when to buy.Nasdaq (NDX) delivered an excellent buy signal last time we looked at it (May 30, see chart below) and is approaching our 19900 Target:
The pace of this rise however has been very strong, certainly stronger than the December 2023, which we used as fractal comparison, and the price already reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up.
At the same time, it hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level from the last Lower High before the break-out, while the 1D RSI reached the 78.00 overbought level. On the past fractal, the short-term correction that followed, bottomed on January 05 2024 on the 1.5 Fib ext.
As a result, we can't dismiss a short-term pull-back now but we will expect it to find Support around 19050 (Fib 1.5). We will use it as a new buy entry and target 20500 (the 2.618 Fibonacci extension) as we expect a new, more aggressive Channel Up to emerge.
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NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Potential Scenarios Ahead of FOMC
NASDAQ Index is currently consolidating within a horizontal range.
Most likely, the market participants are waiting for the FOMC tomorrow.
Depending on the reaction of the market to the boundaries of the range,
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the market breaks and closes above 19115 the resistance of the range,
with a high probability, a bullish rally will continue.
Bearish Scenario
If the Index breaks and closes below 18880 the support of the range,
it may initiate a correctional movement.
I think that US100 may keep being weak before the news release.
Let's see what direction the market will choose tomorrow.
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US100USD: Promising Buy-Side Potential!Greetings, Traders!
Brief Description🖊️:
Currently, on US100USD, I am observing bullish momentum entering the market. After retracing into discount prices, the price began pushing upwards, engulfing bearish candles and indicating a change in state of delivery, which means a bullish order block formation. The price then retested this order block, found support, and another bullish order block was formed, which is currently being tested. The mean threshold (middle line of the order block) has been rejected multiple times, suggesting that the order block may strongly hold as support, allowing the price to continue rising.
Things I Have Seen👀:
Bullish Momentum📈: The market is showing signs of a bullish order block formation after retracing into discount prices and pushing upwards.
Order Block Support🟢: The mean threshold of the current order block is being rejected multiple times, indicating strong support.
Bullish Targets📉:
Failure Swings: These possess buy-side liquidity.
Liquidity Void: The main objective is to fill this inefficiency.
Balanced Price Range: Located above the liquidity void, it is the last point where the price was efficiently delivered.
What's Important Now❗
Monitor the price action around these key levels to confirm bullish continuation and identify profitable trading opportunities.
Best Regards,
The_Architect
Study/Analysis of Correlated Assets: US500, US100, and US30Greetings Traders!
Study/Analysis of Correlated Assets: US500, US100, and US30
In this tutorial, we'll delve into the study and analysis of correlated assets, specifically focusing on US500, US100, and US30. Understanding the relationship between these assets helps determine whether Smart Money is accumulating orders or distributing them.
Key Concepts:
Symmetrical Correlation: Indicates a continuation in price.
Non-Symmetrical Correlation: Indicates a reversal in price.
Steps to Follow:
Identify Correlation: Analyze the charts of US500, US100, and US30 to determine whether they exhibit symmetrical or non-symmetrical correlation.
Symmetrical Condition: If the assets move in sync (symmetrical correlation), expect a continuation in price movement. This indicates that the trend is likely to persist.
Non-Symmetrical Condition: If the assets move out of sync (non-symmetrical correlation), anticipate a potential reversal in price. This indicates that the trend might change direction.
Chart Analysis:
In the provided chart, we observe a non-symmetrical condition, suggesting a likely reversal.
Using this concept as confluence enhances your market analysis. For instance, in the US30 chart, I am anticipating a draw towards the sell stops. By examining the correlated assets, I can confirm whether it’s safe to look for selling opportunities.
If the market condition is non-symmetrical, it suggests that the assets are likely to reverse, making my sell idea high probability.
Conclusion:
Using the correlation between assets can provide additional confluence to your trading strategy. It helps in anticipating whether the market will reverse or continue in its current trend.
Smart Money Divergence Lecture:
For a deeper understanding of this concept, please follow this link to a detailed lecture on Smart Money Technique:
Best Regards,
The_Architect
US Indices Weekly Forecast: Top Trading Strategies Revealed!Greetings, Traders!
Brief Description🖊️:
Join me in this video as we analyze what to anticipate this week on the indices US500, US100, and US30. We'll delve deeper into US30 to understand today's trading opportunities. We will explore various ICT concepts, including draw on liquidity, fair valuation, order blocks, and most importantly, Smart Money Technique (SMT) and engineering liquidity, where smart money uses retail patterns such as trendlines, support, and resistance to trap traders into making investments.
Things We Will Cover👀:
ICT Concepts🧠:
Smart Money Technique (SMT): Study and analysis of correlated assets.
Draw on Liquidity💧 : Understanding how liquidity is targeted and manipulated.
Fair Valuation📊 : Assessing the true value of price levels.
Fair Value Gaps : How to choose high-probability FVGs.
Order Blocks📦 : Identifying high-probability order blocks.
Engineering Liquidity 🔄: Analyzing how smart money uses retail patterns to manipulate market movements.
Trading Opportunities📉📈:
Potential Price Movements: Providing a comprehensive outlook on possible market shifts.
Strategies for the Week : Uncovering strategies that could make this week profitable.
If you'd like to further understand how to use SMT, please follow the link below.
Happy Trading,
The_Architect
US100 Is Very Bearish! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for US100.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 19,056.1.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 18,811.5 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NASDAQ will continue to rise on this pattern repetition.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a (blue) Channel Up since basically the market bottom of the inflation crisis in October 2022. On the bigger picture, this is the technical Bullish Leg of the 14-year Channel Up and is supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since March 13 2023.
Based on the 1W RSI pattern, we have previously seen such Bullish Leg within the long-term Channel Up supported by the 1W MA50, back on the February 08 2016 bottom. As you can see on this 1W chart, both Bullish Legs (Channel Up patterns) made their first pull-back on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. In June 2018, the previous fractal reached the 5.0 Fibonacci extension and shortly after, the index corrected aggressively back at the bottom of the 14-year Channel Up.
We expect Nasdaq to hit again the 5.0 Fib ext sooner or later but most likely before the year is over. This gives us a medium-term Target of 22000.
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